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Buy, Sell or Hold Pfizer Stock? Key Tips Ahead of Q1 Earnings
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Key Takeaways
Pfizer Q1 sales and EPS are expected to be $13.82B and 74 cents, respectively, ahead of the May 5 release.
PFE's growth likely to be driven by Vyndaqel, Eliquis, Padcev, but hurt by declining COVID product sales.
Pfizer's pipeline, oncology focus, and M&A aim to revive growth despite patent expiry risks.
Pfizer (PFE - Free Report) is set to report its first-quarter 2026 earnings on May 5, before market open. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales and earnings for the first quarter is pegged at $13.82 billion and 74 cents per share, respectively. Estimates for Pfizer’s 2026 earnings have risen from $2.97 to $2.98 per share over the past 30 days.
PFE Estimate Movement
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
PFE’s Earnings Surprise History
The healthcare bellwether’s performance has been solid, with the company exceeding earnings expectations in each of the trailing four quarters. It delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 31.46%, on average. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 15.79%, as seen in the chart below.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
What Does Our Model Say?
Pfizer has an Earnings ESP of -5.49% and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) at present.
Per our proven model, companies with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1, #2 (Buy) or #3 have a good chance of delivering an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Factors Shaping PFE’s Upcoming Results
Higher sales of products like Vyndaqel family, Bristol-Myers (BMY - Free Report) - partnered Eliquis, Prevnar family, Padcev and Lorbrena are likely to have driven top-line growth. Among the newer products, sales of Nurtec ODT/Vydura, Cibinqo and RSV vaccine, Abrysvo, are expected to have risen.
However, sales of some other key products like Xeljanz are likely to have declined. Also, lower revenues from COVID products, Comirnaty and Paxlovid, are likely to have hurt top-line growth.
Expectations for PFE’s Primary Care Segment
In Primary Care, alliance revenues and direct sales from Bristol-Myers - partnered Eliquis are likely to have risen, driven by higher demand trends globally, partially offset by price and generic erosion in some ex-U.S. markets. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for alliance revenues from Eliquis is $1.85 billion.
Sales of key vaccine Prevnar are likely to have benefitted from higher sales in ex-U.S. markets which will likely offset the impact of lower demand in the United States. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of the Prevnar family of vaccines is $1.63 billion.
Pfizer records direct sales and alliance revenues from its partner, BioNTech (BNTX - Free Report) , for the COVID-19 vaccine, Comirnaty. Revenues from Pfizer/BioNTech’s Comirnaty are likely to have declined in the first quarter due to narrower COVID-19 vaccine recommendations in the United States that have reduced Comirnaty’s eligible patient population. Sales of the antiviral pill for COVID, Paxlovid, are also likely to have declined due to lower infection rates, which hurt demand trends and lower international government purchases.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for direct sales and alliance revenues from Comirnaty is $411 million, while that for Paxlovid is $296.0 million.
Sales of Abrysvo are likely to have gained from favorable net price and market share for the adult indication in the United States and launch uptake in some international markets.
Expectations for PFE’s Oncology Segment
Pfizer’s oncology sales in the first quarter are expected to have been driven by higher sales of key drugs like Xtandi, Lorbrena and the Braftovi-Mektovi combination, which should make up for declining sales of drugs like Ibrance.
As regards the antibody-drug conjugates or ADCs added from the 2023 Seagen acquisition, competitive pressure in the United States is likely to have hurt sales of Adcetris, while strong demand trends are likely to have benefited Padcev’s sales.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Padcev is $535 million, while that for Ibrance is $944 million.
Expectations for PFE’s Specialty Care Segment
In the Specialty Care unit, while sales of Vyndaqel are expected to have remained strong, driven by continued demand growth, sales of Xeljanz and Enbrel are likely to have declined.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of Vyndaqel/Vyndamax is $1.66 billion.
On the first-quarter conference call, Pfizer is also expected to provide an update on its 2026 financial guidance.
Nonetheless, a single quarter’s results are not so important for long-term investors. Let us delve deeper to understand whether to buy, sell or hold Pfizer stock.
PFE’s Price Performance & Valuation
Pfizer’s stock has risen 7.5% in the past year compared with an increase of 6.0% for the industry.
Pfizer Stock Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, Pfizer appears attractive relative to the industry and is trading below its five-year mean. Going by the price/earnings ratio, Pfizer’s shares currently trade at 8.96 forward earnings, significantly lower than 16.30 for the industry as well as the stock’s five-year mean of 9.90.
PFE Stock Valuation
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Investment Thesis on PFE Stock
Pfizer’s dependence on its COVID business has now reduced. Its non-COVID operational revenues have been improving, driven by key in-line products like Vyndaqel, Padcev and Eliquis, new launches and newly acquired products like Nurtec and those from Seagen. Pfizer expects its recently launched and acquired products to record continued double-digit growth.
Pfizer is one of the largest and most successful drugmakers in oncology. The addition of Seagen strengthened its position in oncology. Oncology sales comprise around 27% of its total revenues. Pfizer also advanced its oncology clinical pipeline with several candidates entering late-stage development. By 2030, it expects to have eight or more blockbuster oncology medicines in its portfolio.
Pfizer is also trying to rebuild its pipeline through acquisitions. Seagen, Metsera and Biohaven are the most significant strategic acquisitions in recent years. In 2025, Pfizer invested around $9 billion in M&A deals, including the acquisition of Metsera and the licensing deal with 3SBio.
Pfizer plans to start 20 pivotal studies in 2026, including 10 pivotal studies for the ultra-long-acting obesity candidates added from the Metsera acquisition and four for PF-08634404, the dual PD-1/VEGF inhibitor in-licensed from Chinese biotech 3SBio in 2025.
Pfizer expects its recently launched and acquired products and a strong pipeline to help revive top-line growth toward the end of the decade.
However, Pfizer faces several challenges in the near term. Pfizer is seeing declining sales of its COVID products, Comirnaty and Paxlovid, due to lower vaccination rates and COVID infection rates.
Pfizer expects a significant negative impact on revenues from the loss of exclusivity (LOE) in the 2026-2030 period as several of its key products, including Eliquis, Vyndaqel, Ibrance, Xeljanz and Xtandi, face patent expirations. The LOE cliff is expected to hurt sales by approximately $1.5 billion in 2026.
Pfizer’s revenue and earnings guidance for 2026 indicates mostly flat to slightly negative growth, which disappointed investors.
Stay Invested in PFE Stock
After taking a hit over the past three years largely due to a sharp decline in sales of its COVID-related products, Pfizer’s stock is now showing signs of a gradual recovery. This rebound is being supported by better-than-expected quarterly results, ongoing cost-cutting initiatives, pipeline successes and recent M&A activity. However, the company’s 2026 guidance was below expectations, and it continues to face notable challenges, including upcoming patent expirations.
Long-term investors may retain the stock in their portfolio as the company rebuilds its pipeline in oncology and obesity, which it believes can drive growth in 2028 and beyond.
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Buy, Sell or Hold Pfizer Stock? Key Tips Ahead of Q1 Earnings
Key Takeaways
Pfizer (PFE - Free Report) is set to report its first-quarter 2026 earnings on May 5, before market open. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales and earnings for the first quarter is pegged at $13.82 billion and 74 cents per share, respectively. Estimates for Pfizer’s 2026 earnings have risen from $2.97 to $2.98 per share over the past 30 days.
PFE Estimate Movement
PFE’s Earnings Surprise History
The healthcare bellwether’s performance has been solid, with the company exceeding earnings expectations in each of the trailing four quarters. It delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 31.46%, on average. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 15.79%, as seen in the chart below.
What Does Our Model Say?
Pfizer has an Earnings ESP of -5.49% and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) at present.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Per our proven model, companies with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1, #2 (Buy) or #3 have a good chance of delivering an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Factors Shaping PFE’s Upcoming Results
Higher sales of products like Vyndaqel family, Bristol-Myers (BMY - Free Report) - partnered Eliquis, Prevnar family, Padcev and Lorbrena are likely to have driven top-line growth. Among the newer products, sales of Nurtec ODT/Vydura, Cibinqo and RSV vaccine, Abrysvo, are expected to have risen.
However, sales of some other key products like Xeljanz are likely to have declined. Also, lower revenues from COVID products, Comirnaty and Paxlovid, are likely to have hurt top-line growth.
Expectations for PFE’s Primary Care Segment
In Primary Care, alliance revenues and direct sales from Bristol-Myers - partnered Eliquis are likely to have risen, driven by higher demand trends globally, partially offset by price and generic erosion in some ex-U.S. markets. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for alliance revenues from Eliquis is $1.85 billion.
Sales of key vaccine Prevnar are likely to have benefitted from higher sales in ex-U.S. markets which will likely offset the impact of lower demand in the United States. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of the Prevnar family of vaccines is $1.63 billion.
Pfizer records direct sales and alliance revenues from its partner, BioNTech (BNTX - Free Report) , for the COVID-19 vaccine, Comirnaty. Revenues from Pfizer/BioNTech’s Comirnaty are likely to have declined in the first quarter due to narrower COVID-19 vaccine recommendations in the United States that have reduced Comirnaty’s eligible patient population. Sales of the antiviral pill for COVID, Paxlovid, are also likely to have declined due to lower infection rates, which hurt demand trends and lower international government purchases.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for direct sales and alliance revenues from Comirnaty is $411 million, while that for Paxlovid is $296.0 million.
Sales of Abrysvo are likely to have gained from favorable net price and market share for the adult indication in the United States and launch uptake in some international markets.
Expectations for PFE’s Oncology Segment
Pfizer’s oncology sales in the first quarter are expected to have been driven by higher sales of key drugs like Xtandi, Lorbrena and the Braftovi-Mektovi combination, which should make up for declining sales of drugs like Ibrance.
As regards the antibody-drug conjugates or ADCs added from the 2023 Seagen acquisition, competitive pressure in the United States is likely to have hurt sales of Adcetris, while strong demand trends are likely to have benefited Padcev’s sales.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Padcev is $535 million, while that for Ibrance is $944 million.
Expectations for PFE’s Specialty Care Segment
In the Specialty Care unit, while sales of Vyndaqel are expected to have remained strong, driven by continued demand growth, sales of Xeljanz and Enbrel are likely to have declined.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of Vyndaqel/Vyndamax is $1.66 billion.
On the first-quarter conference call, Pfizer is also expected to provide an update on its 2026 financial guidance.
Nonetheless, a single quarter’s results are not so important for long-term investors. Let us delve deeper to understand whether to buy, sell or hold Pfizer stock.
PFE’s Price Performance & Valuation
Pfizer’s stock has risen 7.5% in the past year compared with an increase of 6.0% for the industry.
Pfizer Stock Performance
From a valuation standpoint, Pfizer appears attractive relative to the industry and is trading below its five-year mean. Going by the price/earnings ratio, Pfizer’s shares currently trade at 8.96 forward earnings, significantly lower than 16.30 for the industry as well as the stock’s five-year mean of 9.90.
PFE Stock Valuation
Investment Thesis on PFE Stock
Pfizer’s dependence on its COVID business has now reduced. Its non-COVID operational revenues have been improving, driven by key in-line products like Vyndaqel, Padcev and Eliquis, new launches and newly acquired products like Nurtec and those from Seagen. Pfizer expects its recently launched and acquired products to record continued double-digit growth.
Pfizer is one of the largest and most successful drugmakers in oncology. The addition of Seagen strengthened its position in oncology. Oncology sales comprise around 27% of its total revenues. Pfizer also advanced its oncology clinical pipeline with several candidates entering late-stage development. By 2030, it expects to have eight or more blockbuster oncology medicines in its portfolio.
Pfizer is also trying to rebuild its pipeline through acquisitions. Seagen, Metsera and Biohaven are the most significant strategic acquisitions in recent years. In 2025, Pfizer invested around $9 billion in M&A deals, including the acquisition of Metsera and the licensing deal with 3SBio.
Pfizer plans to start 20 pivotal studies in 2026, including 10 pivotal studies for the ultra-long-acting obesity candidates added from the Metsera acquisition and four for PF-08634404, the dual PD-1/VEGF inhibitor in-licensed from Chinese biotech 3SBio in 2025.
Pfizer expects its recently launched and acquired products and a strong pipeline to help revive top-line growth toward the end of the decade.
However, Pfizer faces several challenges in the near term. Pfizer is seeing declining sales of its COVID products, Comirnaty and Paxlovid, due to lower vaccination rates and COVID infection rates.
Pfizer expects a significant negative impact on revenues from the loss of exclusivity (LOE) in the 2026-2030 period as several of its key products, including Eliquis, Vyndaqel, Ibrance, Xeljanz and Xtandi, face patent expirations. The LOE cliff is expected to hurt sales by approximately $1.5 billion in 2026.
Pfizer’s revenue and earnings guidance for 2026 indicates mostly flat to slightly negative growth, which disappointed investors.
Stay Invested in PFE Stock
After taking a hit over the past three years largely due to a sharp decline in sales of its COVID-related products, Pfizer’s stock is now showing signs of a gradual recovery. This rebound is being supported by better-than-expected quarterly results, ongoing cost-cutting initiatives, pipeline successes and recent M&A activity. However, the company’s 2026 guidance was below expectations, and it continues to face notable challenges, including upcoming patent expirations.
Long-term investors may retain the stock in their portfolio as the company rebuilds its pipeline in oncology and obesity, which it believes can drive growth in 2028 and beyond.