HSBC Holdings (HSBC Quick QuoteHSBC - Free Report) is scheduled to announce first-quarter 2026 results on May 5, before market open. The company’s quarterly revenues and earnings are expected to have increased on a year-over-year basis.

In the last reported quarter, HSBC’s results were driven by an increase in revenues, and lower expected credit losses and other credit impairment charges. However, an increase in expenses hurt results to some extent.

The company boasts an impressive earnings surprise history. Its earnings surpassed the consensus estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average beat being 15.4%.

Major Factors Likely to Influence HSBC’s Q1 Results

Investment Banking (IB) Revenues: Global deal-making activity was robust in the first quarter despite the Middle Eastern conflict and the ensuing uncertainty about its impact on the economy in the last month of the quarter. While global merger and acquisition (M&A) volume declined year over year, deal value rose as big transactions dominated the space.

Unlike last year, when President Donald Trump’s announcement of ‘Liberation Day’ tariff plans led to a deal drought for several months, this time, companies acknowledged that volatility is part of life, and they will have to do business around it. Lower capital costs and a focus on scale and AI integration drove M&As. Thus, advisory fee growth is likely to have been strong for HSBC.

The first quarter saw decent IPO activity, with issuance volumes improving despite fewer companies getting listed. Conversely, global bond issuance volume was solid. Thus, HSBC is expected to have witnessed growth in equity and debt underwriting fees.

Trading Revenues: Client activity and market volatility were solid in the first quarter. Major factors that influenced the trading business included shifting expectations around AI, rising geopolitical tensions, particularly concerns over the Middle East and the risk of an oil shock, persistent inflation concerns, and uncertainty around the Fed’s monetary policy stance. Volatility was high in equity markets and other asset classes, including commodities, bonds and foreign exchange.

Owing to solid volatility and higher client activity, HSBC’s trading business performance is expected to have been robust.

Interest Income: In the first quarter, central banks across the globe exhibited a mixed approach to interest rate adjustments, with the majority of them keeping rates steady. This reflected divergent perspectives on the economic outlook, with some central banks prioritizing inflation control, while others focused on potential economic downturn, concerns surrounding the Middle East conflict and the oil-price shock. These are likely to have resulted in the stabilization of funding costs for HSBC and a modest rise in loan demand.

Thus, HSBC’s interest income is anticipated to have improved in the to-be-reported quarter.

Expenses: Over the past several years, HSBC has been able to control expenses. However, overall costs are expected to have been high in the to-be-reported quarter, given the company’s focus on growing market share in the U.K. and Asia, as well as strengthening digital capabilities globally.

HSBC’s organizational overhaul plan is likely to have resulted in increased expenses.

What the Zacks Model Unveils for HSBC

According to our quantitative model, the chances of HSBC beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings this time are low. This is because it lacks the right combination of the two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for HSBC is -0.92%.

Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Q1 Earnings & Sales Estimates for HSBC

The consensus estimate for the company’s earnings for the to-be-reported quarter is pegged at $2.18 per share, which has been unchanged in the past seven days. The figure indicates growth of 11.8% from the year-ago quarter’s actual.

The consensus estimate for sales is pegged at $18.60 billion, implying a 5.4% year-over-year rise.

Performance of HSBC’s Peers

Barclays (BCS Quick QuoteBCS - Free Report) reported first-quarter 2026 net income attributable to ordinary equity holders of £1.93 billion ($2.60 billion), up 4% from the prior-year quarter.

An increase in revenues and a strong balance sheet supported BCS’ results. However, the company recorded higher operating expenses in the quarter, which, along with an increase in credit impairment charges, hurt the results to some extent.

ICICI Bank Ltd.’s (IBN Quick QuoteIBN - Free Report) profit after tax for fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 (ended March 31) was INR137.02 billion ($1.50 billion), up 8.5% from the prior-year quarter.

IBN’s results were aided by growth in net interest income and non-interest income. A decline in provisions was a tailwind. However, higher operating expenses, along with a treasury loss, hurt the results to some extent.