Novo Nordisk (NVO Quick QuoteNVO - Free Report) is scheduled to report its first-quarter 2026 results before the opening bell on May 6, 2026. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues in the to-be-reported quarter is pegged at $11.13 billion, while the same for earnings is pinned at 87 cents per share.

In the past 60 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Novo Nordisk’s 2026 earnings per share (EPS) has deteriorated from $3.36 to $3.34. During the same time frame, the company’s 2027 EPS forecast has improved from $3.27 to $3.36. 

NVO Estimate Movement

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NVO’s Earnings Surprise History

Novo Nordisk’s performance has been mixed over the trailing four quarters, with earnings beating estimates in three quarters and matching the mark on the remaining occasion. On average, Novo Nordisk registered an earnings surprise of 11.97% in the trailing four quarters. In the last reported quarter, the company reported an earnings surprise of 11.11%.

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What Does Our Model Say?

Per our proven model, companies with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) have a good chance of delivering an earnings beat, which is the case for NVO. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Novo Nordisk has an Earnings ESP of +1.83% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Factors Shaping NVO’s Upcoming Results

Novo Nordisk operates under two segments — Diabetes and Obesity Care and Rare disease.

Novo Nordisk’s first-quarter revenues are expected to have been driven by the sale of its diabetes and obesity treatments, particularly semaglutide-based (GLP-1) drugs — Ozempic (for type II diabetes [T2D]) and Wegovy (for obesity).

Since their initial launch, Novo Nordisk has secured several label expansions for both Ozempic and Wegovy injections to expand patient access and drive demand. Wegovy is approved for reducing major cardiovascular events, easing HFpEF symptoms and relieving osteoarthritis-related knee pain in obesity, as well as for liver care. Ozempic is also the only GLP-1 therapy approved to reduce kidney disease progression and cardiovascular death in patients with T2D and chronic kidney disease. NVO recently secured regulatory approval for a higher dose Wegovy (7.2mg) with greater efficacy in the United States and the EU. It is also pursuing a label expansion of Ozempic in treating peripheral artery disease in the United States and the EU.

Novo Nordisk also secured the long-awaited FDA approval for its oral Wegovy pill to treat obesity and reduce cardiovascular risk in late December, followed by its commercial launch in early January. Compared to injectable formulations, the pill offers a far more convenient administration option. Investors will be closely watching the first-quarter earnings call for initial sales figures of the Wegovy pill.

Ozempic and Rybelsus sales, along with insulin product sales growth, are also likely to have contributed meaningfully to the top line. Novo Nordisk is also gearing up to launch oral Ozempic for T2D in the United States soon. Additionally, the Rare Disease segment is expected to have generated incremental revenues for the company.

However, NVO’s structural growth challenges remain unresolved, as is evident from its 2026 outlook. Novo Nordisk’s subdued 2026 guidance signals limited near-term momentum for its GLP-1 franchise, suggesting that first-quarter sales growth for Wegovy and Ozempic is likely to have remained under pressure amid intensifying competition from arch-rival Eli Lilly (LLY Quick QuoteLLY - Free Report) . With core sales and operating profit expected to decline and U.S. demand and pricing facing headwinds, the company’s growth outlook appears increasingly constrained. This weaker-than-expected trajectory has also dampened investor enthusiasm around the new Wegovy pill, which is now seen as unlikely to meaningfully offset competitive and pricing pressures in the near term.

NVO’s Stock Price & Valuation

Year to date, Novo Nordisk shares have lost 13.7% compared with the industry’s 3.1% decline. The company has also underperformed the sector and the S&P 500 during the same time frame, as seen in the chart below.

NVO Stock Price Movement

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Novo Nordisk is trading at a discount to the industry, as seen in the chart below. Going by the price/earnings ratio, the company’s shares currently trade at 13.11 forward earnings, which is lower than 16.94 for the industry. The stock is trading much below its five-year mean of 29.25.

NVO Stock Valuation

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NVO’s Investment Thesis

Novo Nordiskhas achieved tremendous commercial success with Wegovy and Ozempic injections since their launch. However, the company’s growth trajectory has suffered in the past year.

NVO has been able to curb the impact of compounded GLP-1 alternatives through legal action, tighter FDA oversight and strategic partnerships with telehealth firms. However, its 2026 outlook is flattered by a one-off $4.2 billion reversal of U.S. 340B rebates, but this gain is excluded from adjusted metrics, revealing underlying weakness. On a core basis, the company expects sales and operating profit to decline 5-13% (CER), with FX headwinds adding further pressure. Even reported figures suggest largely flat sales and only modest profit growth, indicating limited momentum once non-recurring benefits are removed.

Growth in international markets, driven by GLP-1 adoption and Wegovy expansion, is likely to have been offset by pricing pressure, competition and semaglutide exclusivity losses — especially in the United States, where demand and pricing are weakening. Higher R&D and commercial spending will further strain margins. Despite initial optimism around oral Wegovy, investor confidence has faded, as it is unlikely to meaningfully offset near-term challenges.

Competition in the obesity treatment market is also intensifying as the space has garnered much of the spotlight over the past year due to the sizeable and still underpenetrated market opportunity. Eli Lilly is Novo Nordisk’s fierce competitor in the diabetes/obesity space, which markets its tirzepatide injections, Mounjaro (T2D) and Zepbound (obesity), competing directly with NVO’s Ozempic and Wegovy injections, respectively. Despite being on the market for just over three years, Mounjaro and Zepbound have become LLY’s key top-line drivers.

LLY recently reported first-quarter earnings, wherein the drugs generated combined sales of $12.82 billion, comprising around 65% of the company’s total revenues. Lilly’s first-quarter results crushed estimates for both earnings and sales and raised its previously issued financial guidance for 2026. It also secured FDA approval and subsequently launched its oral GLP-1 pill, Foundayo (orforglipron), for obesity in early April, which now competes directly with Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy pill. Both NVO and LLY have introduced multiple price cuts in response to pressure from the U.S. government during 2025 and 2026 to improve patient access to GLP-1 medicines.

Smaller biotech firms, like Viking Therapeutics (VKTX Quick QuoteVKTX - Free Report) and Structure Therapeutics (GPCR Quick QuoteGPCR - Free Report) , are also advancing GLP-1–based therapies to challenge the incumbents. Viking Therapeutics’ dual GIPR/GLP-1 receptor agonist, VK2735, is being developed both as oral and subcutaneous formulations for the treatment of obesity. Viking Therapeutics plans to advance oral VK2735 into phase III development for obesity in the third quarter of 2026.

Structure Therapeutics’ phase II ACCESS study on its oral GLP-1 RA, aleniglipron, for obesity, met its primary and all key secondary endpoints. Structure Therapeutics expects to initiate the late-stage program of aleniglipron in obesity in the second half of 2026.

Novo Nordisk is also advancing steadily across its pipeline, which is expected to broaden its product portfolio and help reinforce its leadership position in the sector over time. It is developing several next-generation obesity candidates, especially targeting the lucrative U.S. market. Apart from CagriSema, a follow-up drug to Wegovy currently awaiting FDA evaluation, NVO is gearing up to launch a dedicated late-stage program evaluating cagrilintide as a monotherapy for obesity.

Meanwhile, its mid-stage asset, amycretin, has shown strong weight-loss efficacy in a phase II study and is slated to enter phase III soon. The company has bolstered its pipeline through several major collaborations and acquisition deals. Beyond metabolic diseases, NVO is also building out its rare disease segment, with the submission of a regulatory filing for Mim8 in hemophilia A in the United States and recent approvals of a broader label for its Alhemo injection for hemophilia A or B, further strengthening its position in the hemophilia space.

Here's How to Play NVO Stock

In the near to mid-term, Novo Nordisk’s outlook remains uncertain, and the stock is likely to stay volatile regardless of how its first-quarter results turn out. Even a potential earnings beat may not be enough to change sentiment meaningfully, given the slowing growth in its core GLP-1 franchise, rising competition from Eli Lilly and persistent pricing pressure in the United States. The company’s weak 2026 outlook, mixed estimate revisions and underlying decline in core sales and profits suggest limited visibility on near-term performance. As a result, short-to-mid-term investors may face sharp swings in the stock without a clear upward trend and are better off staying cautious.

For long-term investors, Novo Nordisk’s leadership in the diabetes and obesity market and its expanding pipeline remain key positives. However, near-term challenges — including competitive intensity, pricing headwinds and uncertainty around new product ramp-up — make entry timing important. With the stock likely to remain sensitive to earnings updates and market expectations, waiting for clearer signs of stable growth and improving fundamentals would help reduce risk. A more balanced outlook on demand, margins and competitive positioning over time could offer a better opportunity to assess the company’s long-term potential.