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Will Shell Pull Off Q1 Earnings Beat on Strong Refining Setup?
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Key Takeaways
Shell reports Q1 2026 on May 7; consensus calls for $1.78 EPS on $83.3B revenues.
Shell's refining margin guided to $17/bbl with 95-99% utilisation; trading contributions higher.
Shell guided Marketing at 2,550-2,650 kb/d; Renewables earnings seen at $200M-$700M on trading.
Shell plc (SHEL - Free Report) is set to release first-quarter 2026 results on May 7. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is $1.78 per share on revenues of $83.3 billion.
Let’s delve into the factors that might have influenced the integrated energy behemoth’s results for the March quarter. But it’s worth taking a look at Shell’s previous-quarter performance first.
Highlights of Q4 Earnings & Surprise History
In the last reported quarter, Europe’s largest oil company missed the consensus mark due to a decline in oil prices and unfavorable tax adjustments, partly offset by higher hydrocarbon production. SHEL had reported earnings per ADS (on a current cost of supplies basis, excluding items — the market’s preferred measure) of $1.14, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.21. Revenues of $66.7 billion also underperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by more than 2%.
Shell beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in three of the last four quarters and missed in the other, resulting in an earnings surprise of 11.9%, on average. This is depicted in the graph below:
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the first-quarter bottom line has remained unchanged in the past seven days. The estimated figure indicates a 3.3% decline year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues, however, suggests an 18.8% increase from the year-ago period.
Factors to Consider
Shell’s Chemicals and Products business entered first-quarter 2026 with a better margin backdrop. According to an update provided by the company, the indicative refining margin likely improved to $17 per barrel from $14 in the December quarter, while refinery utilization was guided at a high 95-99%. Chemicals utilization was also expected to rise to 81-85% versus 76% in fourth-quarter 2025. On top of that, contributions from trading and optimization were expected to have been significantly higher sequentially, giving the segment a clear earnings tailwind despite chemicals margins staying broadly flat.
The Marketing segment was guided for first-quarter 2026 sales volumes of 2,550-2,650 thousand barrels per day, with underlying operating expenses of $2.2-$2.6 billion, below or in line with the fourth quarter’s adjusted level. More importantly, Shell expected Marketing adjusted earnings to be significantly higher than the year-ago period.
Finally, Shell’s ‘Renewables and Energy Solutions’ unit was guided to deliver $200-$700 million in first-quarter adjusted earnings, up from $100 million in fourth-quarter 2025. The main driver was expected to be a significant improvement in trading and optimisation.
Why a Likely Positive Surprise?
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Shell this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is the case here.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Shell has an Earnings ESP of +3.56% and a Zacks Rank #1.
Shell is not the only company looking up this earnings cycle. Here are some other energy firms that you may want to consider on the basis of our model:
Calumet, Inc. (CLMT - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +3.51% and a Zacks Rank #2. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on May 8.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 earnings of Calumet indicates 53.9% growth. Valued at nearly $3 billion, CLMT is up 205.4% in a year.
Ovintiv Inc. (OVV - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +21.28% and a Zacks Rank #2. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on May 11.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 earnings of Ovintiv indicates 32.6% growth. Valued at more than $17 billion, OVV is up 76.8% in a year.
Evolution Petroleum Corporation (EPM - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +50.00% and a Zacks Rank #2. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on May 12.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2026 earnings of Evolution Petroleum indicates 25% growth. Valued at around $170 million, EPM is up 20.2% in a year.
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Will Shell Pull Off Q1 Earnings Beat on Strong Refining Setup?
Key Takeaways
Shell plc (SHEL - Free Report) is set to release first-quarter 2026 results on May 7. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is $1.78 per share on revenues of $83.3 billion.
Let’s delve into the factors that might have influenced the integrated energy behemoth’s results for the March quarter. But it’s worth taking a look at Shell’s previous-quarter performance first.
Highlights of Q4 Earnings & Surprise History
In the last reported quarter, Europe’s largest oil company missed the consensus mark due to a decline in oil prices and unfavorable tax adjustments, partly offset by higher hydrocarbon production. SHEL had reported earnings per ADS (on a current cost of supplies basis, excluding items — the market’s preferred measure) of $1.14, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.21. Revenues of $66.7 billion also underperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by more than 2%.
Shell beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in three of the last four quarters and missed in the other, resulting in an earnings surprise of 11.9%, on average. This is depicted in the graph below:
Shell PLC Unsponsored ADR Price and EPS Surprise
Shell PLC Unsponsored ADR price-eps-surprise | Shell PLC Unsponsored ADR Quote
Trend in Estimate Revision
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the first-quarter bottom line has remained unchanged in the past seven days. The estimated figure indicates a 3.3% decline year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues, however, suggests an 18.8% increase from the year-ago period.
Factors to Consider
Shell’s Chemicals and Products business entered first-quarter 2026 with a better margin backdrop. According to an update provided by the company, the indicative refining margin likely improved to $17 per barrel from $14 in the December quarter, while refinery utilization was guided at a high 95-99%. Chemicals utilization was also expected to rise to 81-85% versus 76% in fourth-quarter 2025. On top of that, contributions from trading and optimization were expected to have been significantly higher sequentially, giving the segment a clear earnings tailwind despite chemicals margins staying broadly flat.
The Marketing segment was guided for first-quarter 2026 sales volumes of 2,550-2,650 thousand barrels per day, with underlying operating expenses of $2.2-$2.6 billion, below or in line with the fourth quarter’s adjusted level. More importantly, Shell expected Marketing adjusted earnings to be significantly higher than the year-ago period.
Finally, Shell’s ‘Renewables and Energy Solutions’ unit was guided to deliver $200-$700 million in first-quarter adjusted earnings, up from $100 million in fourth-quarter 2025. The main driver was expected to be a significant improvement in trading and optimisation.
Why a Likely Positive Surprise?
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Shell this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is the case here.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Shell has an Earnings ESP of +3.56% and a Zacks Rank #1.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Other Stocks to Consider
Shell is not the only company looking up this earnings cycle. Here are some other energy firms that you may want to consider on the basis of our model:
Calumet, Inc. (CLMT - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +3.51% and a Zacks Rank #2. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on May 8.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 earnings of Calumet indicates 53.9% growth. Valued at nearly $3 billion, CLMT is up 205.4% in a year.
Ovintiv Inc. (OVV - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +21.28% and a Zacks Rank #2. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on May 11.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 earnings of Ovintiv indicates 32.6% growth. Valued at more than $17 billion, OVV is up 76.8% in a year.
Evolution Petroleum Corporation (EPM - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +50.00% and a Zacks Rank #2. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on May 12.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2026 earnings of Evolution Petroleum indicates 25% growth. Valued at around $170 million, EPM is up 20.2% in a year.