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APA Corporation Q1 Earnings on Deck: Here's How It Will Fare

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Key Takeaways

  • APA is set to report Q1 earnings on May 6, with EPS expected at 94 cents on $2.11B in revenues.
  • APA revenues may fall year over year due to weaker contributions from key production segments.
  • APA costs are projected to drop to $1.5B, aiding margins amid stable production and hedging support.

APA Corporation (APA - Free Report) is set to release first-quarter 2026 results on May 6. The bottom-line estimate for the to-be-reported quarter is pegged at 94 cents on revenues of $2.11 billion.

Let us delve into the factors that might have influenced this upstream operator’s results in the quarter to be reported. Before diving in, it is important to consider how APA performed in the last quarter.

Highlights of APA’s Q4 Earnings & Surprise History

In the last reported quarter, the independent oil and gas explorer beat the consensus mark due to higher-than-expected production and lower costs. APA posted adjusted earnings per share of 91 cents, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 79 cents. Moreover, revenues of $2 billion beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3%. The company’s earnings have exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the last four quarters, resulting in an average surprise of 48.37%

This is depicted in the graph below: 

APA Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

APA Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

APA Corporation price-eps-surprise | APA Corporation Quote

APA’s Trend in Estimate Revision

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2026 earnings has remained unchanged over the past seven days. The estimated figure indicates an 11.32% decline year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues implies a 19.08% year-over-year decline.

Factors to Consider Ahead of APA’s Q1 Release

APA Corporation is an independent energy company focused on the exploration and production of oil and natural gas. Its primary operations involve discovering, developing and extracting crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids. With a strong presence in the United States, Egypt and the North Sea, the company is also expanding its exploration activities in Suriname. APA earns revenues from the sale of the hydrocarbon products, with its earnings closely linked to production volumes and fluctuating market prices for oil and gas.

APA operates in regions like Egypt, which carry geopolitical risks. We expect any regional uncertainties or operational complexities to remain a potential overhang on production stability and investor sentiment.

The decrease in APA’s costs might have improved its to-be-reported bottom line. We expect the company’s total expenses to reach $1.5 billion in the first quarter, down from $1.8 billion in the same quarter last year.

According to our model, the following expenses are expected to decrease year over year, Lease Operating Expenses (down 5.5%), Purchased Oil and Gas Costs (down 67.8%), Taxes Other Than Income (down 35.3%), Exploration (down 6.9%), General and Administrative (down 8.1%), Transaction Costs (down 42.1%), Reorganization and Separation Costs (down 12.9%), Oil and Gas Property and Equipment (down 11.8%), Other Assets (down 12.9%), Depreciation, Depletion, and Amortization (down 13.8%), Asset Retirement Obligation Accretion (down 13.8%) and Interest Expense (down 13.8%).

We expect APA’s production volumes to have remained relatively stable during the first quarter, supported by steady output from key regions like the Permian Basin and Egypt. These mature, low-decline assets are likely to have provided operational consistency, helping offset volatility in other regions.

On a bearish note, the company’s revenues are likely to have declined in the quarter to be reported. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter revenues is expected to be lower than the year-ago figure of $2.6 billion, caused by reduced contributions from the Oil, Natural Gas, and Natural Gas Liquid Production revenues, as well as the Purchased Oil and Gas Sales segments. Based on our model, revenues from the Oil, Natural Gas, and Natural Gas Liquid Production revenues and Purchased Oil and Gas Sales segments are projected to decrease 24.1% and 45.2% year over year, respectively.

What Does Our Model Say About APA?

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for APAthis time. A stock needs to have a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) to beat earnings. This is exactly the case here.

Earnings ESP of APA:  Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, for this company is +14.52%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

APA’s Zacks Rank: APA currently carries a Zacks Rank #2.

Other Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are some other firms from the energy space that you may want to consider, as these, too, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.

Shell plc (SHEL - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +3.56% and a Zacks Rank #2. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on May 7. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Shell is a global energy and petrochemical company that explores, produces, refines and markets oil, gas and renewable energy solutions. Notably, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Shell’s 2026 earnings per share indicates 58.25% year-over-year growth. Valued at around $9.97 billion, Shell’s shares have risen 37.1% in a year.

Ovintiv Inc. (OVV - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +21.28% and a Zacks Rank #2. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on May 11. Ovintiv is a North American energy company engaged in the exploration, production and development of crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids.

Notably, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ovintiv’s 2026 earnings per share indicates 32.64% year-over-year growth. Valued at around $17.24 billion, OVV’s shares have risen 82.8% in a year.

Venture Global, Inc. (VG - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +9.36% and a Zacks Rank #2. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on May 12.

Venture Global is a U.S.-based energy company focused on developing and operating large-scale liquefied natural gas export facilities. Notably, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Venture Global’s 2026 earnings per share indicates 52.33% year-over-year growth. Valued at around $9.97 billion, VG’s shares have risen 60.4% in a year.

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