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The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MP’s first-quarter revenues is $74.9 million, indicating a 23.22% increase from the year-ago quarter. The consensus estimate for earnings is pegged at a loss of one cent per share.
The estimate has moved down from the prior expected profit of two cents to the current loss of one cent over the past 60 days. MP Materials reported a loss of 12 cents per share in the year-ago quarter.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
MP Materials’ Earnings Surprise History
MP Materials’ earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed the same in one quarter. The company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 39.28%, on average.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
What the Zacks Model Unveils for MP Stock
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for MP Materials this time around. This is because a stock needs to have the right combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold), which increases the chances of an earnings beat. This is not the case, as you can see below.
You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: MP has an Earnings ESP of +100.00%.
Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
Factors Likely to Have Shaped MP Materials’ Q1 Performance
MP Materials entered 2026 following a year of strong operational momentum, which is likely to have set a solid foundation for its first-quarter 2026 performance. The company achieved record production levels, including a doubling of NdPr oxide output to 2,599 metric tons, driven by process optimization and capacity expansion. Rare earth oxide concentrate production also reached a record 50,692 metric tons, marking a 12% year-over-year increase driven by improved recoveries and operational efficiencies.
We expect this momentum to have continued in the first quarter of 2026. Higher NdPr volumes and prices are expected to have boosted the Materials segment’s revenues. With MP Materials ramping up its midstream operations, much of the REO output is being diverted to the production of separated rare earth products rather than being sold as concentrate. Also, the company halted rare earth concentrate shipments to China in April in response to Chinese tariffs and export controls, cutting off a revenue stream.
A major milestone last year was the commencement of commercial-scale magnet production at the Independence facility, marking MP Materials’ transition toward downstream integration. The Magnetics segment made its first metal deliveries in the first quarter of 2025 and contributed $5.2 million to the company’s revenues. The ramp-up at the segment is expected to have provided a lift to the Magnetic segment’s revenues in the first quarter of 2026.
Overall, the company’s first-quarter top line is expected to have reflected higher NdPr and magnet revenues, offset by a decline in REO sales.
However, cost pressures remain a key challenge, as MP advances its downstream expansion strategy. Producing separated rare earth products and magnetic materials involves significantly higher costs than concentrate production, due to additional processing requirements, chemical inputs, labor and maintenance. Cost of sales is expected to have been higher in the first quarter, reflecting increased sales of NdPr oxide and metal, along with added costs associated with magnetic precursor products. Ongoing investments in downstream capabilities are likely to have kept SG&A expenses high, maintaining pressure on near-term margins. With the United States Department of War’s (DoW) Price Protection Agreement commencing on Oct. 1, 2025, it is expected to have provided revenue stability and helped offset some of the cost headwinds.
MP’s Price Performance & Valuation
MP Materials shares have gained 168.3% in a year compared with the industry’s 49.9% growth. In comparison, the Zacks Basic Materials sector has gained 39.7%, while the S&P 500 has risen 33.8% in the same period. Meanwhile, peers Energy Fuels (UUUU - Free Report) and Lynas Rare Earths Limited (LYSDY - Free Report) have gained 368.3% and 146% in a year, respectively.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
MP is trading at a forward 12-month price/sales multiple of 20.53X, a significant premium to the industry’s 1.60X. It has a Value Score of F. Energy Fuels and Lynas are trading at price-to-sales ratios of 29.56X and 12.33X, respectively.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Investment Thesis on MP
MP Materials is the United States’ only fully integrated rare earth producer with capabilities spanning the entire supply chain, from mining and processing to advanced metallization and magnet manufacturing. The company’s multibillion-dollar investment package and long-term commitments from the DoW will enable it to expand its production capacity and play a pivotal role in reducing the United States’ reliance on foreign sources, particularly China.
Should You Buy MP Materials Stock Now?
MP Materials continues to invest heavily in expanding its production capacity and advancing its downstream capabilities, while the Department of Defense agreement provides longer-term pricing and revenue visibility. These factors support a constructive long-term outlook, suggesting that existing shareholders may benefit from holding the stock to capture the structural growth in rare earth demand. However, the near-term setup is less favorable. The stock trades at a premium despite expectations of a quarterly loss and the risk of another earnings miss, leaving little margin for disappointment. Given these headwinds, it may be prudent for new investors to stay on the sidelines ahead of earnings.
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Should You Buy, Sell or Hold MP Stock Before Q1 Earnings Release?
Key Takeaways
MP Materials (MP - Free Report) is scheduled to announce its first-quarter 2026 results on May 7, after market close.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MP’s first-quarter revenues is $74.9 million, indicating a 23.22% increase from the year-ago quarter. The consensus estimate for earnings is pegged at a loss of one cent per share.
The estimate has moved down from the prior expected profit of two cents to the current loss of one cent over the past 60 days. MP Materials reported a loss of 12 cents per share in the year-ago quarter.
MP Materials’ Earnings Surprise History
MP Materials’ earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed the same in one quarter. The company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 39.28%, on average.
What the Zacks Model Unveils for MP Stock
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for MP Materials this time around. This is because a stock needs to have the right combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold), which increases the chances of an earnings beat. This is not the case, as you can see below.
You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: MP has an Earnings ESP of +100.00%.
Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Factors Likely to Have Shaped MP Materials’ Q1 Performance
MP Materials entered 2026 following a year of strong operational momentum, which is likely to have set a solid foundation for its first-quarter 2026 performance. The company achieved record production levels, including a doubling of NdPr oxide output to 2,599 metric tons, driven by process optimization and capacity expansion. Rare earth oxide concentrate production also reached a record 50,692 metric tons, marking a 12% year-over-year increase driven by improved recoveries and operational efficiencies.
We expect this momentum to have continued in the first quarter of 2026. Higher NdPr volumes and prices are expected to have boosted the Materials segment’s revenues. With MP Materials ramping up its midstream operations, much of the REO output is being diverted to the production of separated rare earth products rather than being sold as concentrate. Also, the company halted rare earth concentrate shipments to China in April in response to Chinese tariffs and export controls, cutting off a revenue stream.
A major milestone last year was the commencement of commercial-scale magnet production at the Independence facility, marking MP Materials’ transition toward downstream integration. The Magnetics segment made its first metal deliveries in the first quarter of 2025 and contributed $5.2 million to the company’s revenues. The ramp-up at the segment is expected to have provided a lift to the Magnetic segment’s revenues in the first quarter of 2026.
Overall, the company’s first-quarter top line is expected to have reflected higher NdPr and magnet revenues, offset by a decline in REO sales.
However, cost pressures remain a key challenge, as MP advances its downstream expansion strategy. Producing separated rare earth products and magnetic materials involves significantly higher costs than concentrate production, due to additional processing requirements, chemical inputs, labor and maintenance. Cost of sales is expected to have been higher in the first quarter, reflecting increased sales of NdPr oxide and metal, along with added costs associated with magnetic precursor products. Ongoing investments in downstream capabilities are likely to have kept SG&A expenses high, maintaining pressure on near-term margins. With the United States Department of War’s (DoW) Price Protection Agreement commencing on Oct. 1, 2025, it is expected to have provided revenue stability and helped offset some of the cost headwinds.
MP’s Price Performance & Valuation
MP Materials shares have gained 168.3% in a year compared with the industry’s 49.9% growth. In comparison, the Zacks Basic Materials sector has gained 39.7%, while the S&P 500 has risen 33.8% in the same period. Meanwhile, peers Energy Fuels (UUUU - Free Report) and Lynas Rare Earths Limited (LYSDY - Free Report) have gained 368.3% and 146% in a year, respectively.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
MP is trading at a forward 12-month price/sales multiple of 20.53X, a significant premium to the industry’s 1.60X. It has a Value Score of F. Energy Fuels and Lynas are trading at price-to-sales ratios of 29.56X and 12.33X, respectively.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Investment Thesis on MP
MP Materials is the United States’ only fully integrated rare earth producer with capabilities spanning the entire supply chain, from mining and processing to advanced metallization and magnet manufacturing. The company’s multibillion-dollar investment package and long-term commitments from the DoW will enable it to expand its production capacity and play a pivotal role in reducing the United States’ reliance on foreign sources, particularly China.
Should You Buy MP Materials Stock Now?
MP Materials continues to invest heavily in expanding its production capacity and advancing its downstream capabilities, while the Department of Defense agreement provides longer-term pricing and revenue visibility. These factors support a constructive long-term outlook, suggesting that existing shareholders may benefit from holding the stock to capture the structural growth in rare earth demand.
However, the near-term setup is less favorable. The stock trades at a premium despite expectations of a quarterly loss and the risk of another earnings miss, leaving little margin for disappointment. Given these headwinds, it may be prudent for new investors to stay on the sidelines ahead of earnings.