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AmEx's GBT Exit and Q1 Beat: Why AXP Still Looks Resilient

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Key Takeaways

  • American Express is selling its remaining stake in GBT as part of a $6.3B take-private deal.
  • American Express posted Q1 adjusted EPS of $4.28, up 18% YoY, beating estimates by 6.2%.
  • American Express reaffirmed 2026 guidance, while network volumes rose 11% to $486.3B.

American Express Company (AXP - Free Report) , the global integrated payments leader, is selling its remaining roughly 30% stake in American Express Global Business Travel, operated by Global Business Travel Group, Inc. (GBTG - Free Report) , as part of a broader take-private deal led by Long Lake Management. Under the agreement, major shareholders, including American Express, Expedia, Qatar Investment Authority and BlackRock, together representing about 69% of GBT’s shares, have approved the sale, which values the transaction at around $6.3 billion. The deal is expected to close in the second half of 2026.

Brand licensing and commercial partnerships with GBT will remain intact, meaning American Express will continue benefiting from the corporate travel platform without keeping capital tied up in an equity stake. In short, AmEx is keeping the relationship but freeing itself from the ownership.

Strategically, the move is clean and logical. AmEx is monetizing a non-core investment at a strong valuation and freeing up capital to support what it does best: issuing premium cards, expanding its network, investing in marketing and technology, and driving spending engagement.

The timing also lines up with a period of solid operating momentum. American Express’ first-quarter 2026 results showed strength across spending, revenue growth and profitability.

Q1 Numbers Back Up the Strategy

Network volumes grew 11% year over year in the first quarter to $486.3 billion on the back of higher U.S. consumer spending. International Card Services posted pre-tax income of $781 million, doubling from the prior-year quarter. Global Merchant and Network Services generated pre-tax net income of $1.12 billion, up 13% year over year, reflecting healthy merchant economics and network activity. Total interest income increased 9% to $6.7 billion, signaling steady growth in the lending book.

On the bottom line, AmEx posted adjusted earnings of $4.28 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 6.2% and rising 18% year over year. Total revenues, net of interest expense, came in at $18.9 billion, up 11% from the prior year and ahead of the consensus mark by 1.6%. AmEx’s model is still delivering both growth and operating leverage even in a choppy macro environment. For a detailed analysis, read our blog here.

AmEx’s Guidance Holds Firm, and Estimates Agree

American Express still projects 2026 revenues to increase between 9% and 10% from the 2025 level of $72.2 billion, while the Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates a 9.4% increase, followed by another 8.4% growth in 2027. Management still expects 2026 EPS in the range of $17.30-$17.90, the midpoint of which indicates an improvement of 14.4% from the 2025 level of $15.38, while the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $17.59. The consensus mark for 2027 EPS signals 14.3% growth.

AmEx beat earnings estimates thrice in the past four quarters and missed once, the average surprise being 4%.

American Express Company Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

American Express Company Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

American Express Company price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | American Express Company Quote

Share Price Performance: Outpacing Peers

Over the past year, AXP shares have gained 15.9%, comfortably outperforming the broader industry. In contrast, competitors Visa Inc. (V - Free Report) and Mastercard Incorporated (MA - Free Report) have posted declines of 6% and 9.7%, respectively. The S&P 500’s 33.8% surge still dwarfs all of them, but within payments, AmEx has clearly held its ground.

Price Performance – AXP, V, MA, Industry & S&P 500

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Even after the rally, the stock remains about 17.6% below its 52-week high of $387.49. It is also trading below the Wall Street average price target of $358.42, implying around 12.1% upside from current levels.

AmEx’s Valuation

AmEx trades at a forward P/E of 17.30X, slightly above its five-year median of 17.16X and well above the industry average of 9.84X.While this suggests some valuation premium, it remains below Visa’s 23.35X and Mastercard’s 24.54X multiples, reflecting differences in business models and risk exposure.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

What’s Driving AmEx?

American Express continues to stand out because it operates an integrated payments model, functioning as both card issuer and network. That vertical structure allows it to capture more economics per transaction than pure network peers. It also gives the company stronger control over customer experience, rewards strategy, and merchant engagement. The data advantage that comes with controlling the full transaction chain supports personalization, sharper underwriting and deeper loyalty over time.

The company is also building for the next decade by targeting younger, affluent consumers. Gen Z and Millennials remain a major focus, particularly those drawn to travel and lifestyle rewards. These customers tend to spend heavily and grow into higher income brackets, making them valuable long-term assets if AmEx can lock them in early.

AmEx has also stayed disciplined with acquisitions, steadily cleaned up non-core assets and maintained a conservative risk framework that has helped it protect credit quality across cycles.

Capital strength remains another key pillar. AmEx ended the first quarter with $53.8 billion in cash and cash equivalents, up 12.5% from year-end 2025. That liquidity supports both investment and shareholder returns. During Q1, the company repurchased $1.7 billion of stock and paid $700 million in dividends. It also approved a 16% increase in its quarterly dividend in March 2026.

Risks Investors Should Still Watch Closely

Despite the positives, American Express is not a risk-free story. The company has greater direct credit exposure than Visa or Mastercard, and that remains a key factor for investors to monitor. Provision for credit losses increased 9% year over year to $1.3 billion in the first quarter of 2026. While AmEx’s customer base tends to be more resilient, credit costs can still rise if consumer conditions weaken.

Leverage is another area worth tracking. Long-term debt rose 4.2% from the end of 2025 to $58.8 billion. Its long-term debt-to-capital ratio stands at 63.4%, significantly higher than the industry average of 42%. That does not automatically signal trouble, but it does mean funding costs and balance sheet discipline matter more for AmEx than for payment networks with minimal credit exposure.

Conclusion

The divestment of its remaining stake in Amex GBT looks like a sensible capital allocation move, allowing AmEx to stay commercially tied to the corporate travel ecosystem while freeing up capital to reinvest in higher-return priorities such as premium card growth, marketing and technology. With spending trends holding up, profitability improving across key segments, and management reaffirming its 2026 outlook, the fundamental story remains intact.

That said, investors should not ignore the trade-offs. Rising credit loss provisions and a relatively high leverage profile keep AmEx more exposed to economic softness than pure-play networks like Visa and Mastercard. Still, with steady earnings momentum and supportive estimates, American Express currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), suggesting that the stock remains worth watching but may not be a buy at current levels. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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