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Watch These 4 Energy Stocks for Q1 Earnings: Beat or Miss?
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Key Takeaways
Shell and peers enter Q1 earnings season amid volatility from supply shocks and shifting demand trends.
Rising oil and gas prices, driven by geopolitical tensions, are boosting revenues but adding uncertainty.
S&P energy firms show strong early beats, yet sector earnings are still projected to fall YoY.
The energy sector is entering the thick of the first quarter earnings season under a cloud of uncertainty shaped by sharp commodity swings, geopolitical disruptions and evolving demand patterns. A sudden tightening of global oil supply has shifted price momentum, creating a mixed operating environment for companies across the value chain. While stronger crude and gas prices have supported revenues for some players, others are grappling with cost pressures and regional challenges. Early earnings releases have shown surprising resilience, but broader expectations remain cautious. Against this backdrop, investors are closely tracking whether select energy companies can navigate volatility and outperform market expectations in the weeks ahead.
Q1 Trends in Oil and Gas Prices
The first quarter of 2026 defied expectations in the energy market. Oil prices per barrel were initially projected to fall, but rising Middle East tensions changed the trajectory. The disruption of flows through the Strait of Hormuz triggered supply concerns, driving prices sharply higher despite ample inventories.
During the first quarter of 2026, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude averaged $71.98 per barrel, marginally higher than $71.84 in the same period last year. Given oil’s sensitivity to geopolitical risks, supply shocks and macroeconomic trends, this increase reflects tightening global supply conditions following the Middle East conflict and the disruption of flows through the Strait. Brent crude rose more sharply than WTI, largely due to elevated shipping costs and the U.S. decision to release oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
Natural gas prices also strengthened, with Henry Hub averaging $4.79 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) versus $4.15 a year earlier. Gains were supported by geopolitical uncertainty, steady demand and an unusually early and cold winter that boosted heating needs. Strong LNG feed gas demand and rising electricity consumption, particularly from expanding AI-focused data centers, further reinforced upward price momentum.
How Rising Oil Prices Are Affecting the Energy Sector's Q1 Earnings
So far, results from the first quarter of 2026 highlight a mixed but evolving picture for the S&P 500 oil and energy space. Per the latest Earnings Trends report, roughly 32% of companies in the sector have reported, and initial performance has been notably strong. All of these early reporters (100%) have exceeded earnings expectations, while 87.5% have delivered revenues above forecasts, signaling solid operational efficiency and better-than-expected execution despite a challenging backdrop.
However, when incorporating both reported numbers and forward estimates to form the sector’s blended outlook, the broader trend appears less favorable. The oil and energy group is now projected to register a year-over-year earnings decline of about 8.4% for the quarter, even as revenues are expected to edge up by 1.4%.
Oil/Energy Companies’ Earnings in Focus
In light of this context, let’s explore how the following oil and energy companies are shaping up ahead of their first-quarter earnings reports on May 7 and how they’re poised to tackle the challenges they face.
Our proprietary model indicates that a company needs to have the right combination of two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) — to increase the odds of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Let’s explore four prominent companies and evaluate how they are positioned before their first-quarter earnings release.
Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ - Free Report) is slated to report first-quarter results before the market opens. In the last reported quarter, the company’s adjusted earnings per share of 59 cents beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 53 cents. CNQ beat the earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 13.3%. This is depicted in the chart below:
Canadian Natural Resources Limited Price and EPS Surprise
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Canadian Natural this time around. This is because it has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CNQ’s first-quarter earnings and revenues is pegged at 74 cents per share and $7.5 billion, respectively. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
On the other hand, Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG - Free Report) is scheduled to report quarterly earnings before the market opens. Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Cheniere Energy this time around. This is because it has an Earnings ESP of -5.79% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
Cheniere Energy is primarily engaged in the business of liquefied natural gas (LNG - Free Report) . It constructs and operates LNG terminals and is also involved in LNG and natural gas marketing.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Cheniere Energy’s first-quarter earnings is pegged at $3.91 per share, indicating 149% growth from the prior-year reported figure. LNG’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate twice in the last four quarters and missed twice, delivering an average surprise of 58.4%.
Targa Resources Corp. (TRGP - Free Report) is scheduled to report quarterly earnings before the market opens. Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Targa Resources this time around. This is because it has an Earnings ESP of +0.77% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
Targa Resources is a premier energy infrastructure company and a leading provider of integrated midstream services in North America, which primarily derives its revenues from gathering, compressing, treating, processing and selling natural gas.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Targa Resources’ first-quarter earnings is pegged at $2.56 per share, indicating 181.3% growth from the prior-year reported figure. TRGP’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate twice in the last four quarters and missed twice, delivering an average negative surprise of 0.4%.
Finally, Shell plc (SHEL - Free Report) is scheduled to report quarterly earnings before the market opens. Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Shell this time around. This is because it has an Earnings ESP of +3.56% and a Zacks Rank #1 at present.
Shell is one of the primary oil supermajors with operations that span almost every corner of the globe. The company participates in almost every aspect related to energy — from oil production to refining and marketing.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SHEL’s first-quarter earnings is pegged at $1.78 per ADS, indicating a 3.3% decline from the prior-year reported figure. SHEL’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate thrice in the last four quarters while missing once, delivering an average surprise of 11.9%.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
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Watch These 4 Energy Stocks for Q1 Earnings: Beat or Miss?
Key Takeaways
The energy sector is entering the thick of the first quarter earnings season under a cloud of uncertainty shaped by sharp commodity swings, geopolitical disruptions and evolving demand patterns. A sudden tightening of global oil supply has shifted price momentum, creating a mixed operating environment for companies across the value chain. While stronger crude and gas prices have supported revenues for some players, others are grappling with cost pressures and regional challenges. Early earnings releases have shown surprising resilience, but broader expectations remain cautious. Against this backdrop, investors are closely tracking whether select energy companies can navigate volatility and outperform market expectations in the weeks ahead.
Q1 Trends in Oil and Gas Prices
The first quarter of 2026 defied expectations in the energy market. Oil prices per barrel were initially projected to fall, but rising Middle East tensions changed the trajectory. The disruption of flows through the Strait of Hormuz triggered supply concerns, driving prices sharply higher despite ample inventories.
During the first quarter of 2026, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude averaged $71.98 per barrel, marginally higher than $71.84 in the same period last year. Given oil’s sensitivity to geopolitical risks, supply shocks and macroeconomic trends, this increase reflects tightening global supply conditions following the Middle East conflict and the disruption of flows through the Strait. Brent crude rose more sharply than WTI, largely due to elevated shipping costs and the U.S. decision to release oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
Natural gas prices also strengthened, with Henry Hub averaging $4.79 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) versus $4.15 a year earlier. Gains were supported by geopolitical uncertainty, steady demand and an unusually early and cold winter that boosted heating needs. Strong LNG feed gas demand and rising electricity consumption, particularly from expanding AI-focused data centers, further reinforced upward price momentum.
How Rising Oil Prices Are Affecting the Energy Sector's Q1 Earnings
So far, results from the first quarter of 2026 highlight a mixed but evolving picture for the S&P 500 oil and energy space. Per the latest Earnings Trends report, roughly 32% of companies in the sector have reported, and initial performance has been notably strong. All of these early reporters (100%) have exceeded earnings expectations, while 87.5% have delivered revenues above forecasts, signaling solid operational efficiency and better-than-expected execution despite a challenging backdrop.
However, when incorporating both reported numbers and forward estimates to form the sector’s blended outlook, the broader trend appears less favorable. The oil and energy group is now projected to register a year-over-year earnings decline of about 8.4% for the quarter, even as revenues are expected to edge up by 1.4%.
Oil/Energy Companies’ Earnings in Focus
In light of this context, let’s explore how the following oil and energy companies are shaping up ahead of their first-quarter earnings reports on May 7 and how they’re poised to tackle the challenges they face.
Our proprietary model indicates that a company needs to have the right combination of two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) — to increase the odds of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Let’s explore four prominent companies and evaluate how they are positioned before their first-quarter earnings release.
Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ - Free Report) is slated to report first-quarter results before the market opens. In the last reported quarter, the company’s adjusted earnings per share of 59 cents beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 53 cents. CNQ beat the earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 13.3%. This is depicted in the chart below:
Canadian Natural Resources Limited Price and EPS Surprise
Canadian Natural Resources Limited price-eps-surprise | Canadian Natural Resources Limited Quote
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Canadian Natural this time around. This is because it has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CNQ’s first-quarter earnings and revenues is pegged at 74 cents per share and $7.5 billion, respectively. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
On the other hand, Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG - Free Report) is scheduled to report quarterly earnings before the market opens. Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Cheniere Energy this time around. This is because it has an Earnings ESP of -5.79% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
Cheniere Energy is primarily engaged in the business of liquefied natural gas (LNG - Free Report) . It constructs and operates LNG terminals and is also involved in LNG and natural gas marketing.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Cheniere Energy’s first-quarter earnings is pegged at $3.91 per share, indicating 149% growth from the prior-year reported figure. LNG’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate twice in the last four quarters and missed twice, delivering an average surprise of 58.4%.
This is depicted in the chart below:
Cheniere Energy, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Cheniere Energy, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Cheniere Energy, Inc. Quote
Targa Resources Corp. (TRGP - Free Report) is scheduled to report quarterly earnings before the market opens. Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Targa Resources this time around. This is because it has an Earnings ESP of +0.77% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
Targa Resources is a premier energy infrastructure company and a leading provider of integrated midstream services in North America, which primarily derives its revenues from gathering, compressing, treating, processing and selling natural gas.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Targa Resources’ first-quarter earnings is pegged at $2.56 per share, indicating 181.3% growth from the prior-year reported figure. TRGP’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate twice in the last four quarters and missed twice, delivering an average negative surprise of 0.4%.
This is depicted in the chart below:
Targa Resources, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Targa Resources, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Targa Resources, Inc. Quote
Finally, Shell plc (SHEL - Free Report) is scheduled to report quarterly earnings before the market opens. Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Shell this time around. This is because it has an Earnings ESP of +3.56% and a Zacks Rank #1 at present.
Shell is one of the primary oil supermajors with operations that span almost every corner of the globe. The company participates in almost every aspect related to energy — from oil production to refining and marketing.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SHEL’s first-quarter earnings is pegged at $1.78 per ADS, indicating a 3.3% decline from the prior-year reported figure. SHEL’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate thrice in the last four quarters while missing once, delivering an average surprise of 11.9%.
This is depicted in the chart below:
Shell PLC Unsponsored ADR Price and EPS Surprise
Shell PLC Unsponsored ADR price-eps-surprise | Shell PLC Unsponsored ADR Quote