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All Eyes on Vistra's Q1 Earnings: What Lies Ahead for the Stock?
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Key Takeaways
Vistra is set to report Q1 2026 on May 7; revenues are seen at $5.4B and EPS at $2.21.
Vistra sees clean-power demand rising as data centers expand, reshoring continues and the Permian electrifies.
Vistra has repurchased 30% of shares since November 2021 and $1.8 billion buyback authorization is left.
Vistra Corp. (VST - Free Report) is expected to deliver an improvement in both top and bottom lines when it reports first-quarter 2026 results on May 7, before market open.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for VST’s first-quarter revenues is pegged at $5.4 billion, indicating an increase of 38.5% from the year-ago reported figure.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The consensus mark for VST’s first-quarter earnings is pegged at $2.21 per share, indicating a 380.43% increase from the year-ago reported figure.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
What the Zacks Model Unveils
Our model predicts an earnings beat for Vistra this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. That is exactly the case here, as you can see below.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: Vistra has an Earnings ESP of +4.79%.
A couple of companies from the same sector with the right combination of the two factors for an earnings surprise this season are PPL Corporation (PPL - Free Report) and SOLV Energy Inc. (MWH - Free Report) . PPL and MWH both currently have a Zacks Rank #3. PPL and MWH’s Earnings ESP are pegged at +0.41% and +3.45%, respectively.
A stock from the same industry that reported positive earnings surprise this season is Dominion Energy (D - Free Report) , among others. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 and 2027 earnings per share for Dominion Energy indicates year-over-year growth of 4.94% and 6.21%, respectively.
Factors Likely to Have Shaped VST’s Q1 Earnings
Vistra’s first-quarter results are likely to benefit from rising demand for clean electricity across its footprint, driven by the rapid expansion of U.S. data centers, continued industrial reshoring and ongoing electrification in the Permian Basin. The company’s core markets, including PJM and ERCOT, have been capturing an increasing share of overall load growth. Supported by a diversified generation mix and a high-quality nuclear fleet, the company is well positioned to capitalize on accelerating load growth.
Vistra operates a 22-GW modern combined cycle gas fleet and its nuclear fleet, which have the ability to run at higher utilization rates. This allows the company to efficiently cater to rising demand in its service region. The highly efficient generation fleet is also expected to have contributed to first-quarter earnings.
Vistra’s share repurchase program has boosted shareholder value and supported EPS growth, aiding its first-quarter performance. Since November 2021, the company has bought back 30% of its outstanding shares and plans to continue this approach. As of Feb. 26, 2026, Vistra has nearly $1.8 billion available for share repurchases, which might have further supported earnings growth.
Vistra utilizes a hedging program to reduce the impact of market changes and price fluctuations, nearly 100% of its 2026 generation volume has been hedged. This extensive hedging is likely to have helped to secure its first-quarter generation volumes.
VST’s Price Performance
VST’s shares have gained 4.4% in the past month against the industry’s decline of 0.2%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
VST Stock Trading at a Discount
Vistra is currently valued at a discount compared with its industry on a forward 12-month P/E basis. VST is trading at P/EF12M of 16.32X compared with the industry’s 16.49X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
VST Stock Returns Higher Than the Industry
Return on Equity (“ROE”) is a financial ratio that measures how well a company uses its shareholders’ equity to generate profits. The company's current ROE indicates that it is using shareholders’ funds more efficiently than peers.
Vistra’s trailing 12-month ROE is 81.09%, way higher than the industry average of 11.17%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Investment Thesis
Vistra is expanding its generation capacity through a mix of organic investments and contributions from strategic acquisitions, with the integrated business model offering a clear competitive edge over non-integrated peers.
Regulatory support resulted in the extension of the license of existing nuclear plants, which will allow Vistra to continue to produce a large volume of emission-free electricity and serve its customers.
Vistra’s ability to generate free cash flow will allow it to increase shareholders' value through buybacks and payment of dividends.
Summing Up
Vistra operates in a market where demand for clean electricity is accelerating. To capture this growth, the company is expanding its clean generation portfolio through a mix of acquisitions and organic development. Vistra’s disciplined hedging strategy, combined with rising electricity demand from data centers, further boosts its prospects.
The stock looks attractive given its cheaper valuation, strong ROE and recent price performance better than the industry.
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All Eyes on Vistra's Q1 Earnings: What Lies Ahead for the Stock?
Key Takeaways
Vistra Corp. (VST - Free Report) is expected to deliver an improvement in both top and bottom lines when it reports first-quarter 2026 results on May 7, before market open.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for VST’s first-quarter revenues is pegged at $5.4 billion, indicating an increase of 38.5% from the year-ago reported figure.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The consensus mark for VST’s first-quarter earnings is pegged at $2.21 per share, indicating a 380.43% increase from the year-ago reported figure.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
What the Zacks Model Unveils
Our model predicts an earnings beat for Vistra this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. That is exactly the case here, as you can see below.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: Vistra has an Earnings ESP of +4.79%.
Zacks Rank: VST currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
A couple of companies from the same sector with the right combination of the two factors for an earnings surprise this season are PPL Corporation (PPL - Free Report) and SOLV Energy Inc. (MWH - Free Report) . PPL and MWH both currently have a Zacks Rank #3. PPL and MWH’s Earnings ESP are pegged at +0.41% and +3.45%, respectively.
A stock from the same industry that reported positive earnings surprise this season is Dominion Energy (D - Free Report) , among others. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 and 2027 earnings per share for Dominion Energy indicates year-over-year growth of 4.94% and 6.21%, respectively.
Factors Likely to Have Shaped VST’s Q1 Earnings
Vistra’s first-quarter results are likely to benefit from rising demand for clean electricity across its footprint, driven by the rapid expansion of U.S. data centers, continued industrial reshoring and ongoing electrification in the Permian Basin. The company’s core markets, including PJM and ERCOT, have been capturing an increasing share of overall load growth. Supported by a diversified generation mix and a high-quality nuclear fleet, the company is well positioned to capitalize on accelerating load growth.
Vistra operates a 22-GW modern combined cycle gas fleet and its nuclear fleet, which have the ability to run at higher utilization rates. This allows the company to efficiently cater to rising demand in its service region. The highly efficient generation fleet is also expected to have contributed to first-quarter earnings.
Vistra’s share repurchase program has boosted shareholder value and supported EPS growth, aiding its first-quarter performance. Since November 2021, the company has bought back 30% of its outstanding shares and plans to continue this approach. As of Feb. 26, 2026, Vistra has nearly $1.8 billion available for share repurchases, which might have further supported earnings growth.
Vistra utilizes a hedging program to reduce the impact of market changes and price fluctuations, nearly 100% of its 2026 generation volume has been hedged. This extensive hedging is likely to have helped to secure its first-quarter generation volumes.
VST’s Price Performance
VST’s shares have gained 4.4% in the past month against the industry’s decline of 0.2%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
VST Stock Trading at a Discount
Vistra is currently valued at a discount compared with its industry on a forward 12-month P/E basis. VST is trading at P/EF12M of 16.32X compared with the industry’s 16.49X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
VST Stock Returns Higher Than the Industry
Return on Equity (“ROE”) is a financial ratio that measures how well a company uses its shareholders’ equity to generate profits. The company's current ROE indicates that it is using shareholders’ funds more efficiently than peers.
Vistra’s trailing 12-month ROE is 81.09%, way higher than the industry average of 11.17%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Investment Thesis
Vistra is expanding its generation capacity through a mix of organic investments and contributions from strategic acquisitions, with the integrated business model offering a clear competitive edge over non-integrated peers.
Regulatory support resulted in the extension of the license of existing nuclear plants, which will allow Vistra to continue to produce a large volume of emission-free electricity and serve its customers.
Vistra’s ability to generate free cash flow will allow it to increase shareholders' value through buybacks and payment of dividends.
Summing Up
Vistra operates in a market where demand for clean electricity is accelerating. To capture this growth, the company is expanding its clean generation portfolio through a mix of acquisitions and organic development. Vistra’s disciplined hedging strategy, combined with rising electricity demand from data centers, further boosts its prospects.
The stock looks attractive given its cheaper valuation, strong ROE and recent price performance better than the industry.