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Can Shopify's AI Push Sustain More Than 30% Growth in 2026?
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Key Takeaways
Shopify posted Q1 2026 revenue up 34% to $3.17B as GMV rose 35% to $100B-plus.
SHOP saw AI-driven traffic surge 8x and AI-powered search orders jump nearly 13x in Q1 2026.
Shopify Payments hit 67% penetration as Europe GMV climbed 48%, despite rising AI infrastructure costs.
Shopify Inc. (SHOP - Free Report) is aggressively positioning itself at the center of the emerging AI-driven commerce ecosystem, and early results suggest the strategy is already supporting strong growth momentum. In first-quarter 2026, Shopify’s revenues increased 34% year over year to $3.17 billion, while gross merchandise volume (GMV) climbed 35% to more than $100 billion for the second straight quarter.
A major growth catalyst is Shopify’s expanding AI infrastructure. Management highlighted that AI-driven traffic to Shopify stores surged 8x year over year in the first quarter, while orders from AI-powered searches jumped nearly 13x. The company is increasingly integrating its commerce ecosystem with platforms such as ChatGPT, Microsoft Copilot and Google AI services, positioning Shopify as a key commerce layer for agentic AI shopping.
Shopify’s Sidekick assistant is also rapidly gaining traction. Weekly active shops using Sidekick increased fourfold year over year, while merchants created more than 12,000 custom apps through the tool during the quarter. Management noted that AI now writes more than 50% of Shopify’s internal code, helping accelerate product launches and operational efficiency.
Beyond AI, enterprise momentum, payments adoption and international expansion remain strong tailwinds. Shopify Payments penetration reached 67% in the first quarter, while European GMV rose 48% year over year.
Although rising AI infrastructure and large-language-model costs could pressure margins, Shopify’s durable free cash flow generation and expanding merchant ecosystem suggest its AI-led growth story still has room to run in 2026.
Shopify Faces Rising AI Commerce Competition
SHOP continues to strengthen its AI-driven commerce ecosystem, but competition in the broader e-commerce and enterprise commerce software market remains intense. Key rivals include Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN - Free Report) and Wix.com Ltd. (WIX - Free Report) .
Amazon remains one of the biggest competitive threats due to its massive fulfillment network, advertising ecosystem and growing AI capabilities. The company is increasingly embedding generative AI into product discovery, advertising and seller tools, areas where Shopify is aggressively expanding. Amazon also benefits from its dominant consumer marketplace, while Shopify focuses on enabling independent merchants and brands to control their own storefronts and customer relationships.
Meanwhile, Wix is rapidly integrating AI tools into website creation, store management and merchant automation. The company is targeting small and medium-sized businesses with simplified AI-powered commerce solutions, directly competing with Shopify’s merchant onboarding and Sidekick initiatives. However, Shopify maintains an advantage through its larger commerce ecosystem, enterprise expansion, payments infrastructure and broader omnichannel reach.
As AI reshapes online shopping and merchant operations, both Amazon and Wix are expected to remain key competitors to Shopify throughout 2026.
SHOP Stock’s Price Performance & Valuation Trend
Shares of SHOP have trended 33.1% downward year to date (YTD), underperforming the Zacks Internet - Services industry, as shown below.
SHOP's YTD Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
SHOP stock is currently trading at a premium compared with the industry peers, with a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 56.09, as evidenced by the chart below.
SHOP's P/E Ratio (Forward 12-Month) vs. Industry
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
EPS Trend of SHOP Stock
Over the past 30 days, expectations for the company’s 2026 earnings per share remained unchanged at $1.78. Nonetheless, the estimate indicates 52.1% growth from the year-ago level.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Bigstock
Can Shopify's AI Push Sustain More Than 30% Growth in 2026?
Key Takeaways
Shopify Inc. (SHOP - Free Report) is aggressively positioning itself at the center of the emerging AI-driven commerce ecosystem, and early results suggest the strategy is already supporting strong growth momentum. In first-quarter 2026, Shopify’s revenues increased 34% year over year to $3.17 billion, while gross merchandise volume (GMV) climbed 35% to more than $100 billion for the second straight quarter.
A major growth catalyst is Shopify’s expanding AI infrastructure. Management highlighted that AI-driven traffic to Shopify stores surged 8x year over year in the first quarter, while orders from AI-powered searches jumped nearly 13x. The company is increasingly integrating its commerce ecosystem with platforms such as ChatGPT, Microsoft Copilot and Google AI services, positioning Shopify as a key commerce layer for agentic AI shopping.
Shopify’s Sidekick assistant is also rapidly gaining traction. Weekly active shops using Sidekick increased fourfold year over year, while merchants created more than 12,000 custom apps through the tool during the quarter. Management noted that AI now writes more than 50% of Shopify’s internal code, helping accelerate product launches and operational efficiency.
Beyond AI, enterprise momentum, payments adoption and international expansion remain strong tailwinds. Shopify Payments penetration reached 67% in the first quarter, while European GMV rose 48% year over year.
Although rising AI infrastructure and large-language-model costs could pressure margins, Shopify’s durable free cash flow generation and expanding merchant ecosystem suggest its AI-led growth story still has room to run in 2026.
Shopify Faces Rising AI Commerce Competition
SHOP continues to strengthen its AI-driven commerce ecosystem, but competition in the broader e-commerce and enterprise commerce software market remains intense. Key rivals include Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN - Free Report) and Wix.com Ltd. (WIX - Free Report) .
Amazon remains one of the biggest competitive threats due to its massive fulfillment network, advertising ecosystem and growing AI capabilities. The company is increasingly embedding generative AI into product discovery, advertising and seller tools, areas where Shopify is aggressively expanding. Amazon also benefits from its dominant consumer marketplace, while Shopify focuses on enabling independent merchants and brands to control their own storefronts and customer relationships.
Meanwhile, Wix is rapidly integrating AI tools into website creation, store management and merchant automation. The company is targeting small and medium-sized businesses with simplified AI-powered commerce solutions, directly competing with Shopify’s merchant onboarding and Sidekick initiatives. However, Shopify maintains an advantage through its larger commerce ecosystem, enterprise expansion, payments infrastructure and broader omnichannel reach.
As AI reshapes online shopping and merchant operations, both Amazon and Wix are expected to remain key competitors to Shopify throughout 2026.
SHOP Stock’s Price Performance & Valuation Trend
Shares of SHOP have trended 33.1% downward year to date (YTD), underperforming the Zacks Internet - Services industry, as shown below.
SHOP's YTD Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
SHOP stock is currently trading at a premium compared with the industry peers, with a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 56.09, as evidenced by the chart below.
SHOP's P/E Ratio (Forward 12-Month) vs. Industry
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
EPS Trend of SHOP Stock
Over the past 30 days, expectations for the company’s 2026 earnings per share remained unchanged at $1.78. Nonetheless, the estimate indicates 52.1% growth from the year-ago level.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Shopify currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.