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Higher production costs and inflationary pressures may weigh on Barrick's margins.
Barrick Mining Corporation (B - Free Report) is slated to come up with first-quarter 2026 results before the opening bell on May 11. Higher realized gold prices are expected to have aided its performance amid cost and production headwinds.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter earnings has been going down in the past 60 days. The consensus estimate for earnings is pegged at 74 cents per share, suggesting a rise of 111.4% year over year.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
B beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in three of the last four quarters and reported in-line results on the other occasion. In this timeframe, it delivered an earnings surprise of roughly 11.2%, on average.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Q1 Earnings Whispers for B Stock
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Barrick this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. That is just the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Higher gold prices are likely to have supported the company’s performance in the first quarter. Gold entered 2026 with strong momentum after surging 65% in 2025. Heightened U.S.-Iran tensions, a weaker U.S. dollar and concerns surrounding the Federal Reserve’s independence propelled bullion to record levels, with prices nearing $5,600 per ounce in late January. However, heavy profit-taking and a recovery in the dollar sparked a brief correction, dragging gold below $4,900 per ounce.
The yellow metal regained traction in early March, climbing above $5,400 per ounce on March 2 as safe-haven demand strengthened after coordinated U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran. But a stronger dollar, inflation concerns stemming from higher oil prices and the Fed’s hawkish stance pressured gold later in March, sending prices down to around $4,400 per ounce on March 26. Gold subsequently rebounded to close the month above $4,600 per ounce, though it still ended the month 12% lower. Despite the sharp decline in March, gold prices finished the first quarter up roughly 7%.
Weaker production is expected to have impacted B’s sales volumes in the first quarter. Barrick saw a 19% year-over-year decline in fourth-quarter 2025 gold production to 871,000 ounces, mainly due to the suspension of operations at the Loulo-Gounkoto mine.
The company provided a tepid forecast for 2026, with attributable gold production expected to be in the range of 2.9-3.25 million ounces. While Loulo-Gounkoto is poised to deliver additional production along with modestly higher output from Pueblo Viejo, production is expected to be lower across Veladero, North Mara and Carlin in 2026. Turquoise Ridge is also projected to see lower grades.
The consensus estimate calls for a gold production of roughly 655,000 ounces in the first quarter, indicating a roughly 14% year-over-year and a 25% sequential decline.
Higher production costs are likely to weigh on the company’s first-quarter results. Its total cash costs per ounce of gold and all-in-sustaining costs (AISC) — a critical cost metric for miners — increased around 15% and 9% year over year, respectively, in the fourth quarter, and rose from the previous quarter as well. AISC of $1,581 increased from the year-ago quarter due to higher total cash costs per ounce. AISC also rose 10% year over year to $1,637 in 2025. Cost pressures are likely to have continued in the first quarter.
For 2026, Barrick projects AISC in the range of $1,760-$1,950 per ounce, indicating a significant year-over-year increase at the midpoint. Cash costs per ounce are forecast to be $1,330-$1,470, up from $1,199 in 2025.
The consensus estimate for AISC for the first quarter is pegged at $1,932, indicating a roughly 8.8% year-over-year rise.
Barrick Stock’s Price Performance and Valuation
B’s shares have shot up 120.4% over the past year, outperforming the Zacks Mining – Gold industry’s 67.2% increase and the S&P 500’s rise of 33.3%. Among its peers, Newmont Corporation (NEM - Free Report) , Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC - Free Report) and Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM - Free Report) have rallied 117.8%, 108.4% and 65.5%, respectively, over the same period.
B’s One-year Stock Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, B is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 10.25. This represents a roughly 3.6% discount when stacked up with the industry average of 10.63X. It is trading at a discount to Agnico Eagle, Newmont and Kinross Gold. Barrick, Newmont and Kinross Gold have a Value Score of B each, while Agnico Eagle has a Value Score of C.
B’s P/E F12M Vs. Industry, NEM, KGC & AEM
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Investment Thesis for B Stock
Barrick is well-positioned to benefit from the progress in key growth projects that should significantly contribute to its production. Its major gold and copper growth projects are advancing per schedule and within budget, which underpins the next generation of profitable production.
B has a robust liquidity position and generates healthy cash flows, which positions it well to take advantage of attractive development, exploration and acquisition opportunities, as well as drive shareholder value and reduce debt. Higher gold prices should translate into strong profit margins and free cash flow generation.
Barrick is challenged by higher costs, which may eat into its margins. Additionally, operational issues across certain mines are expected to lead to lower gold production, impacting the company’s performance.
Final Thoughts: Hold Onto B Shares
Barrick is well-placed with a robust pipeline of growth projects, a strong financial footing, solid growth prospects and favorable gold market dynamics. Elevated gold prices are expected to enhance profitability and strengthen cash flow generation. However, persistently high costs and softer production levels remain key concerns. Holding onto the B stock will be prudent for investors who already own it, awaiting more clarity on the company’s prospects following its forthcoming earnings release.
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Should You Buy, Sell or Hold Barrick Mining Ahead of Q1 Earnings?
Key Takeaways
Barrick Mining Corporation (B - Free Report) is slated to come up with first-quarter 2026 results before the opening bell on May 11. Higher realized gold prices are expected to have aided its performance amid cost and production headwinds.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter earnings has been going down in the past 60 days. The consensus estimate for earnings is pegged at 74 cents per share, suggesting a rise of 111.4% year over year.
B beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in three of the last four quarters and reported in-line results on the other occasion. In this timeframe, it delivered an earnings surprise of roughly 11.2%, on average.
Q1 Earnings Whispers for B Stock
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Barrick this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. That is just the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
B has an Earnings ESP of +0.56% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Factors Shaping B’s Q1 Results
Higher gold prices are likely to have supported the company’s performance in the first quarter. Gold entered 2026 with strong momentum after surging 65% in 2025. Heightened U.S.-Iran tensions, a weaker U.S. dollar and concerns surrounding the Federal Reserve’s independence propelled bullion to record levels, with prices nearing $5,600 per ounce in late January. However, heavy profit-taking and a recovery in the dollar sparked a brief correction, dragging gold below $4,900 per ounce.
The yellow metal regained traction in early March, climbing above $5,400 per ounce on March 2 as safe-haven demand strengthened after coordinated U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran. But a stronger dollar, inflation concerns stemming from higher oil prices and the Fed’s hawkish stance pressured gold later in March, sending prices down to around $4,400 per ounce on March 26. Gold subsequently rebounded to close the month above $4,600 per ounce, though it still ended the month 12% lower. Despite the sharp decline in March, gold prices finished the first quarter up roughly 7%.
Weaker production is expected to have impacted B’s sales volumes in the first quarter. Barrick saw a 19% year-over-year decline in fourth-quarter 2025 gold production to 871,000 ounces, mainly due to the suspension of operations at the Loulo-Gounkoto mine.
The company provided a tepid forecast for 2026, with attributable gold production expected to be in the range of 2.9-3.25 million ounces. While Loulo-Gounkoto is poised to deliver additional production along with modestly higher output from Pueblo Viejo, production is expected to be lower across Veladero, North Mara and Carlin in 2026. Turquoise Ridge is also projected to see lower grades.
The consensus estimate calls for a gold production of roughly 655,000 ounces in the first quarter, indicating a roughly 14% year-over-year and a 25% sequential decline.
Higher production costs are likely to weigh on the company’s first-quarter results. Its total cash costs per ounce of gold and all-in-sustaining costs (AISC) — a critical cost metric for miners — increased around 15% and 9% year over year, respectively, in the fourth quarter, and rose from the previous quarter as well. AISC of $1,581 increased from the year-ago quarter due to higher total cash costs per ounce. AISC also rose 10% year over year to $1,637 in 2025. Cost pressures are likely to have continued in the first quarter.
For 2026, Barrick projects AISC in the range of $1,760-$1,950 per ounce, indicating a significant year-over-year increase at the midpoint. Cash costs per ounce are forecast to be $1,330-$1,470, up from $1,199 in 2025.
The consensus estimate for AISC for the first quarter is pegged at $1,932, indicating a roughly 8.8% year-over-year rise.
Barrick Stock’s Price Performance and Valuation
B’s shares have shot up 120.4% over the past year, outperforming the Zacks Mining – Gold industry’s 67.2% increase and the S&P 500’s rise of 33.3%. Among its peers, Newmont Corporation (NEM - Free Report) , Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC - Free Report) and Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM - Free Report) have rallied 117.8%, 108.4% and 65.5%, respectively, over the same period.
B’s One-year Stock Price Performance
From a valuation standpoint, B is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 10.25. This represents a roughly 3.6% discount when stacked up with the industry average of 10.63X. It is trading at a discount to Agnico Eagle, Newmont and Kinross Gold. Barrick, Newmont and Kinross Gold have a Value Score of B each, while Agnico Eagle has a Value Score of C.
B’s P/E F12M Vs. Industry, NEM, KGC & AEM
Investment Thesis for B Stock
Barrick is well-positioned to benefit from the progress in key growth projects that should significantly contribute to its production. Its major gold and copper growth projects are advancing per schedule and within budget, which underpins the next generation of profitable production.
B has a robust liquidity position and generates healthy cash flows, which positions it well to take advantage of attractive development, exploration and acquisition opportunities, as well as drive shareholder value and reduce debt. Higher gold prices should translate into strong profit margins and free cash flow generation.
Barrick is challenged by higher costs, which may eat into its margins. Additionally, operational issues across certain mines are expected to lead to lower gold production, impacting the company’s performance.
Final Thoughts: Hold Onto B Shares
Barrick is well-placed with a robust pipeline of growth projects, a strong financial footing, solid growth prospects and favorable gold market dynamics. Elevated gold prices are expected to enhance profitability and strengthen cash flow generation. However, persistently high costs and softer production levels remain key concerns. Holding onto the B stock will be prudent for investors who already own it, awaiting more clarity on the company’s prospects following its forthcoming earnings release.