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Costco & 3 Retail Stocks Set to Beat Wall Street This Earnings Season
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As investors gear up for the next wave of earnings releases, results from major Retail-Wholesale players could shape near-term market sentiment. This reporting cycle should offer a better insight into both demand and margin trends. Performance is likely to have hinged on consumer sentiment, cautious discretionary spending, and retailers’ ability to manage promotional intensity and cost pressures against a challenging macro backdrop.
According to the latest Zacks Earnings Preview, the sector is expected to deliver revenue growth of 8.6% year over year for the ongoing earnings season, following a 7% increase in the preceding season. Earnings are expected to rise 1.6% this season, a notable deceleration from 6.5% growth recorded in the previous reporting cycle. The numbers suggest that while sales momentum remains healthy, the slowdown in earnings growth signals margin pressure.
As earnings season nears its conclusion, investor focus is increasingly shifting toward companies with high earnings-beat probability and resilient business models. We have identified four stocks — Casey's General Stores, Inc. (CASY - Free Report) , Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW - Free Report) , Target Corporation (TGT - Free Report) and Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST - Free Report) — that appear well-positioned to surpass earnings expectations this season.
Key Factors Likely to Have Influenced Retail Earnings
The retail earnings season is likely to reflect a consumer environment that remained resilient on the surface but increasingly selective underneath. Value-oriented retailers and scaled omnichannel operators may have benefited from steady employment, still-positive wage growth and consumers’ continued preference for convenience and competitive prices. Discount chains, warehouse clubs and omnichannel players appear well-positioned, benefiting from persistent trade-down behavior as consumers prioritize essentials and value-oriented purchases.
At the same time, the earnings season is expected to highlight widening performance dispersion across the sector. Higher-income consumers are likely to have remained relatively stable spenders, supporting categories such as beauty, travel-linked retail and premium essentials. However, middle and lower-income households probably continued to face pressure from elevated borrowing costs, tighter credit conditions and lingering inflation. This environment may have contributed to cautious purchasing behavior, smaller basket sizes and promotional activity across several retail categories.
Inventory management and operational efficiency are also expected to have emerged as major differentiators. Investments in automation, AI-enabled demand forecasting, merchandising optimization and logistics efficiency may have provided incremental support to operating margins. Retailers leveraging data analytics and supply-chain technology are likely to have benefited from improved inventory turns and lower fulfillment costs.
Another defining factor during the earnings season was the evolving tariff and supply-chain landscape. Retailers with diversified sourcing networks, strong private-label penetration and sophisticated inventory planning systems are likely better positioned to absorb higher import costs and mitigate sourcing disruptions. Companies with robust loyalty ecosystems, membership programs and integrated physical-digital capabilities may have continued to gain market share.
4 Retail Stocks Poised for Earnings Surprises
Our research shows that for stocks with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold), the chance of a positive earnings surprise is as high as 70%. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Casey's: Zacks Rank #2 + Earnings ESP of +1.02%
Casey’s continues to distinguish itself through a unique business model that successfully integrates high-margin prepared foods with a resilient fuel and grocery operation. The company is leveraging its differentiated position as a leading pizza provider to drive customer frequency and capture market share, even as traditional restaurant competitors face mounting price pressure. Strategic initiatives, such as the expansion of the "Casey’s Rewards" program and the calculated rollout of new culinary platforms like chicken wings, are effectively deepening guest loyalty and creating incremental sales occasions. The successful integration of the Fikes acquisition and a robust pipeline for new store builds underscores a disciplined approach to geographic expansion and operational efficiency.
Casey’s has a Zacks Rank #2 and an Earnings ESP of +1.02%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings per share has risen by 14 cents to $3.44 over the past 30 days, implying an increase of 30.8% from the year-ago period. The consensus estimate for revenues stands at $4.33 billion, which indicates a year-over-year jump of 8.4%. CASY has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 20%, on average.
Casey's General Stores, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Lowe's has demonstrated resilient financial performance through a disciplined execution of its Total Home strategy, successfully gaining market share despite a complex macroeconomic backdrop. The company is aggressively expanding its footprint with professional customers by integrating high-growth acquisitions like Foundation Building Materials and Artisan Design Group. Innovation remains a core competitive advantage, evidenced by the rollout of AI-enabled sales tools and a robust omnichannel platform. These strategic initiatives are bolstered by a "perpetual productivity improvement" culture that optimizes operational efficiency and ensures consistent value for a diverse customer base.
Investors can count on Lowe's with a Zacks Rank #2 and an Earnings ESP of +0.57%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings per share has been stable at $2.96 over the past 30 days, suggesting an increase of 1.4% year over year. The consensus estimate for revenues is pinned at $22.91 billion, which indicates growth of 9.5% from the year-ago period. LOW has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 2.1%, on average. The company will report numbers on May 20, before the opening bell.
Lowe's Companies, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Target is revitalizing its market position by leaning into its unique identity as a design-led, style-forward retailer. The company is driving growth through a multi-category assortment strategy that infuses newness into high-potential areas like beauty, wellness and "Fun101," while reclaiming its authority in the home category with an overhaul of its most popular brands. Strategic investments are being funneled into an integrated digital and loyalty ecosystem, highlighted by the rapid expansion of the same-day delivery service and a membership program. Operational efficiency is also being bolstered by leveraging AI for personalized guest experiences and streamlining supply-chain processes to support both physical store performance and digital fulfillment.
Target has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of +2.35%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings per share has been stable at $1.34 over the past 30 days, calling for an increase of 3.1% year over year. The consensus estimate for revenues stands at $24.28 billion, which indicates an increase of 1.8% from the year-ago period. The company will report numbers on May 20, before the opening bell.
Target Corporation Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Costco continues to reinforce its position as one of the strongest operators in global retail through its powerful value-driven business model, resilient membership ecosystem and disciplined execution. The company is benefiting from strong traffic trends, accelerating digital engagement and continued momentum in high-growth categories such as pharmacy, fresh foods and private-label offerings, while its Kirkland Signature brand remains a major competitive advantage. Management’s ongoing investments in warehouse expansion, AI-enabled personalization, operational efficiency and supply-chain flexibility further strengthen Costco’s long-term growth profile and enhance the member experience. The company’s ability to lower prices selectively, maintain high renewal rates and drive consistent market-share gains underscores the durability of its model, even in a dynamic consumer and tariff-driven environment.
Costco has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of +1.02%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings per share has risen by three cents to $4.91 over the past seven days, implying an increase of 14.7% from the year-ago period. The consensus estimate for revenues stands at $69.36 billion, which indicates a year-over-year rise of 9.7%. COST has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 1.1%, on average. The company will report numbers on May 28, after the market closes.
Costco Wholesale Corporation Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
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Costco & 3 Retail Stocks Set to Beat Wall Street This Earnings Season
As investors gear up for the next wave of earnings releases, results from major Retail-Wholesale players could shape near-term market sentiment. This reporting cycle should offer a better insight into both demand and margin trends. Performance is likely to have hinged on consumer sentiment, cautious discretionary spending, and retailers’ ability to manage promotional intensity and cost pressures against a challenging macro backdrop.
According to the latest Zacks Earnings Preview, the sector is expected to deliver revenue growth of 8.6% year over year for the ongoing earnings season, following a 7% increase in the preceding season. Earnings are expected to rise 1.6% this season, a notable deceleration from 6.5% growth recorded in the previous reporting cycle. The numbers suggest that while sales momentum remains healthy, the slowdown in earnings growth signals margin pressure.
As earnings season nears its conclusion, investor focus is increasingly shifting toward companies with high earnings-beat probability and resilient business models. We have identified four stocks — Casey's General Stores, Inc. (CASY - Free Report) , Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW - Free Report) , Target Corporation (TGT - Free Report) and Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST - Free Report) — that appear well-positioned to surpass earnings expectations this season.
Key Factors Likely to Have Influenced Retail Earnings
The retail earnings season is likely to reflect a consumer environment that remained resilient on the surface but increasingly selective underneath. Value-oriented retailers and scaled omnichannel operators may have benefited from steady employment, still-positive wage growth and consumers’ continued preference for convenience and competitive prices. Discount chains, warehouse clubs and omnichannel players appear well-positioned, benefiting from persistent trade-down behavior as consumers prioritize essentials and value-oriented purchases.
At the same time, the earnings season is expected to highlight widening performance dispersion across the sector. Higher-income consumers are likely to have remained relatively stable spenders, supporting categories such as beauty, travel-linked retail and premium essentials. However, middle and lower-income households probably continued to face pressure from elevated borrowing costs, tighter credit conditions and lingering inflation. This environment may have contributed to cautious purchasing behavior, smaller basket sizes and promotional activity across several retail categories.
Inventory management and operational efficiency are also expected to have emerged as major differentiators. Investments in automation, AI-enabled demand forecasting, merchandising optimization and logistics efficiency may have provided incremental support to operating margins. Retailers leveraging data analytics and supply-chain technology are likely to have benefited from improved inventory turns and lower fulfillment costs.
Another defining factor during the earnings season was the evolving tariff and supply-chain landscape. Retailers with diversified sourcing networks, strong private-label penetration and sophisticated inventory planning systems are likely better positioned to absorb higher import costs and mitigate sourcing disruptions. Companies with robust loyalty ecosystems, membership programs and integrated physical-digital capabilities may have continued to gain market share.
4 Retail Stocks Poised for Earnings Surprises
Our research shows that for stocks with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold), the chance of a positive earnings surprise is as high as 70%. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Casey's: Zacks Rank #2 + Earnings ESP of +1.02%
Casey’s continues to distinguish itself through a unique business model that successfully integrates high-margin prepared foods with a resilient fuel and grocery operation. The company is leveraging its differentiated position as a leading pizza provider to drive customer frequency and capture market share, even as traditional restaurant competitors face mounting price pressure. Strategic initiatives, such as the expansion of the "Casey’s Rewards" program and the calculated rollout of new culinary platforms like chicken wings, are effectively deepening guest loyalty and creating incremental sales occasions. The successful integration of the Fikes acquisition and a robust pipeline for new store builds underscores a disciplined approach to geographic expansion and operational efficiency.
Casey’s has a Zacks Rank #2 and an Earnings ESP of +1.02%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings per share has risen by 14 cents to $3.44 over the past 30 days, implying an increase of 30.8% from the year-ago period. The consensus estimate for revenues stands at $4.33 billion, which indicates a year-over-year jump of 8.4%. CASY has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 20%, on average.
Casey's General Stores, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Casey's General Stores, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Casey's General Stores, Inc. Quote
Lowe's: Zacks Rank #2 + Earnings ESP of +0.57%
Lowe's has demonstrated resilient financial performance through a disciplined execution of its Total Home strategy, successfully gaining market share despite a complex macroeconomic backdrop. The company is aggressively expanding its footprint with professional customers by integrating high-growth acquisitions like Foundation Building Materials and Artisan Design Group. Innovation remains a core competitive advantage, evidenced by the rollout of AI-enabled sales tools and a robust omnichannel platform. These strategic initiatives are bolstered by a "perpetual productivity improvement" culture that optimizes operational efficiency and ensures consistent value for a diverse customer base.
Investors can count on Lowe's with a Zacks Rank #2 and an Earnings ESP of +0.57%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings per share has been stable at $2.96 over the past 30 days, suggesting an increase of 1.4% year over year. The consensus estimate for revenues is pinned at $22.91 billion, which indicates growth of 9.5% from the year-ago period. LOW has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 2.1%, on average. The company will report numbers on May 20, before the opening bell.
Lowe's Companies, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Lowe's Companies, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Lowe's Companies, Inc. Quote
Target: Zacks Rank #3 + Earnings ESP of +2.35%
Target is revitalizing its market position by leaning into its unique identity as a design-led, style-forward retailer. The company is driving growth through a multi-category assortment strategy that infuses newness into high-potential areas like beauty, wellness and "Fun101," while reclaiming its authority in the home category with an overhaul of its most popular brands. Strategic investments are being funneled into an integrated digital and loyalty ecosystem, highlighted by the rapid expansion of the same-day delivery service and a membership program. Operational efficiency is also being bolstered by leveraging AI for personalized guest experiences and streamlining supply-chain processes to support both physical store performance and digital fulfillment.
Target has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of +2.35%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings per share has been stable at $1.34 over the past 30 days, calling for an increase of 3.1% year over year. The consensus estimate for revenues stands at $24.28 billion, which indicates an increase of 1.8% from the year-ago period. The company will report numbers on May 20, before the opening bell.
Target Corporation Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Target Corporation price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Target Corporation Quote
Costco: Zacks Rank #3 + Earnings ESP of +1.02%
Costco continues to reinforce its position as one of the strongest operators in global retail through its powerful value-driven business model, resilient membership ecosystem and disciplined execution. The company is benefiting from strong traffic trends, accelerating digital engagement and continued momentum in high-growth categories such as pharmacy, fresh foods and private-label offerings, while its Kirkland Signature brand remains a major competitive advantage. Management’s ongoing investments in warehouse expansion, AI-enabled personalization, operational efficiency and supply-chain flexibility further strengthen Costco’s long-term growth profile and enhance the member experience. The company’s ability to lower prices selectively, maintain high renewal rates and drive consistent market-share gains underscores the durability of its model, even in a dynamic consumer and tariff-driven environment.
Costco has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of +1.02%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings per share has risen by three cents to $4.91 over the past seven days, implying an increase of 14.7% from the year-ago period. The consensus estimate for revenues stands at $69.36 billion, which indicates a year-over-year rise of 9.7%. COST has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 1.1%, on average. The company will report numbers on May 28, after the market closes.
Costco Wholesale Corporation Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Costco Wholesale Corporation price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Costco Wholesale Corporation Quote