USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR Quick QuoteUSAR - Free Report) is scheduled to release first-quarter 2026 results on May 13, after market close.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at a loss of 16 cents per share. The bottom-line projection indicates an increase of 15.8% from the year-ago number. USA Rare Earth reported a loss of 19 cents per share in the previous quarter.

USAR’s Earnings Surprise History

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USAR’s earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing three quarters and surpassed the same in one quarter. The company has a trailing three-quarter negative earnings surprise of 112.2%, on average.

Earnings Whispers for USAR

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for USAR this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here, as elaborated below.

Earnings ESP: USAR has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% as both the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are pegged at a loss of 16 cents per share. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: USAR presently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). 

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Factors Likely to Have Shaped USAR’s Q1 Performance

USA Rare Earth is progressing toward commercial production at its Stillwater magnet manufacturing facility in Oklahoma. The plant will manufacture Neodymium Iron Boron (NdFeB) magnets, which are widely used in defense, aviation, automotive and other high-growth industries. The Stillwater facility is poised to become one of the first large-scale NdFeB magnet production plants in the United States, strengthening domestic rare earth supply-chain capabilities and reducing reliance on imports.

USA Rare Earth is installing key equipment, assembling Line 1a and completing final preparations at the Stillwater facility for commissioning in early 2026. It is worth noting that the company started hiring and training engineers and technicians to operate the facility.

USA Rare Earth has also strengthened its balance sheet through PIPE financing and warrant exercises. In January 2026, the company completed a $1.5 billion PIPE financing, with proceeds earmarked for upgrades at its Stillwater facility, expansion of magnet finishing operations and completion of Line 1b. These initiatives are expected to raise total NdFeB magnet production capacity to nearly 1,200 metric tons.

USAR completed the acquisition of Less Common Metals in November 2025, which will supply critical metal and alloy feedstock for the Stillwater plant. In December 2025, LCM partnered with Solvay and Arnold Magnetic Technologies Corp. (Arnold) to provide a stable and premium-quality source of rare-earth materials. This addition and continued progress across its development initiatives are expected to have been a tailwind to its performance during the first quarter.

Also, in January 2026, USA Rare Earth signed a non-binding Letter of Intent (LOI) with the U.S. Department of Commerce and announced a collaboration with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). The Department of Commerce’s CHIPS Program has provided an LOI entailing $277 million in proposed federal funding and a $1.3 billion senior secured loan under the CHIPS Act, a total of $1.6 billion. 

However, since its inception, USA Rare Earth has remained in the exploration and research stages, incurring losses while yet to generate any revenues. Amid its project development phase, the company has been grappling with rising operational expenses, which are expected to have adversely impacted its margins and profitability in the first quarter.

USAR’s research and development expenses increased over the past few quarters due to a rise in legal & consulting costs, higher headcount & recruiting fees and other costs. All these factors are anticipated to have led to a loss in the first quarter.

USAR’s Price Performance

Shares of the company have jumped 77.1% in the past six months, outperforming the S&P 500 composite and Zacks Mining - Miscellaneous industry’s growth of 11.8% and 39.2%, respectively. However, USAR has lagged other key industry players like Aura Minerals Inc. (AUGO Quick QuoteAUGO - Free Report) and NioCorp Developments Ltd. (NB Quick QuoteNB - Free Report) , which have surged 129% and increased 12.9%, respectively, over the said time frame.

Six-Month Price Performance

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Valuation

From a valuation standpoint, USA Rare Earth is trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of a negative 33.18X against the industry average of 15.87X. In comparison, Aura Minerals and NioCorp Developments are trading at 5.68X and negative 13.17X, respectively.

Price-to-Earnings (Forward 12 Months)

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Investment Thesis

USA Rare Earth is progressing toward commercial production at its Stillwater, OK magnet facility, with Line 1a assembled and commissioning targeted for early 2026. The company strengthened its balance sheet through PIPE financing and warrant exercises, raising cash above $400 million and completing a $1.5 billion PIPE in January 2026 to expand NdFeB magnet capacity to nearly 1,200 metric tons. The acquisition of Less Common Metals and partnerships with Solvay and Arnold Magnetic Technologies support critical feedstock supply and U.S. domestic rare-earth production. USAR also secured proposed CHIPS Act support totaling $1.6 billion. However, rising R&D, legal and hiring costs are expected to have weighed on first-quarter margins and profitability.

Should You Buy USAR Now?

The company continues to invest heavily to expand its production capacity, supported by favorable long-term growth prospects. Existing investors may benefit from the company’s strong long-term fundamentals. However, given its high operating costs and the expected loss in the quarter, prospective investors can wait for a better entry point.