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Should You Buy, Sell or Hold NEM Stock After a 36% Rally in 6 Months?
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Key Takeaways
Newmont's shares are up 36% in six months, outperforming the industry and the S&P 500.
NEM is expanding production with projects like Cadia Panel Caves and Tanami Expansion 2.
Higher costs and lower 2026 production may weigh on Newmont's profitability.
Newmont Corporation's(NEM - Free Report) shares have climbed 36.3% in the past six months, fueled by an upswing in gold prices amid economic and geopolitical uncertainties and its forecast-topping earnings performance, driven by operational efficiency, higher realized prices and the strength of its asset portfolio.
NEM stock has outperformed the Zacks Mining – Gold industry’s 22.4% gain and the S&P 500’s increase of 11.8%. Among its gold mining peers, Barrick Mining Corporation (B - Free Report) , Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM - Free Report) and Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC - Free Report) have gained 23.8%, 17.2% and 24.7%, respectively.
NEM’s 6-month Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The NEM stock has been trading above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) since April 9, 2025, suggesting a long-term uptrend. It broke above its 50-day SMA on May 6, 2026. The 50-day SMA is reading higher than the 200-day SMA, following a golden crossover on April 16, 2025, indicating a bullish trend.
NEM Stock Trades Above 50-Day SMA
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Let’s take a look at NEM’s fundamentals to analyze the stock better.
Key Projects & Asset Streamlining to Aid NEM’s Growth
Newmont continues to invest in growth projects in a calculated manner. The company is pursuing several projects, including the Cadia Panel Caves and Tanami Expansion 2 in Australia. These projects should expand Newmont’s production capacity and extend mine life, driving revenues and profits.
In October 2025, NEM achieved a significant milestone at Ahafo North. It achieved commercial production at the project, which followed the first gold pour in September 2025. Ahafo North is expected to produce between 275,000 and 325,000 ounces of gold annually over an estimated mine life of 13 years. Output is expected to be 315,000 ounces this year, with a ramp-up to full capacity.
Newmont has also divested non-core businesses as it shifts its strategic focus to Tier 1 assets. The company generated $3.6 billion from its portfolio optimization actions in 2025. These funds will support Newmont’s capital allocation strategy, which focuses on reinforcing its balance sheet and delivering returns to its shareholders.
Robust Financial Health Supports NEM’s Capital Allocation
Newmont has a strong liquidity position and generates substantial cash flows, which allow it to fund its growth projects, meet short-term debt obligations and drive shareholder value. At the end of the first quarter of 2026, Newmont had robust liquidity of roughly $12.8 billion, including cash and cash equivalents of around $8.8 billion. Its free cash flow surged 161% year over year to a record $3.1 billion in the first quarter, led by an increase in net cash from operating activities. Net cash from operating activities amounted to $3.8 billion in the first quarter, up from $2 billion in the year-ago quarter.
NEM has distributed $3.4 billion to its shareholders through dividends and share repurchases in 2025. It has returned $2.7 billion to its shareholders since Feb. 19, 2026. Newmont has executed repurchases of $6 billion under the earlier authorized share purchase programs, including $2.4 billion since the fourth-quarter 2025 earnings call. Its board has approved an additional $6 billion repurchase program. Newmont also remains committed to deleveraging, reducing debt by roughly $3.4 billion in 2025. It also reduced debt by an additional $42 million in the first quarter, resulting in a strong net cash position of $3.2 billion.
NEM offers a dividend yield of 0.9% at the current stock price. Its payout ratio is 12% (a ratio below 60% is a good indicator that the dividend will be sustainable). Backed by strong cash flows and sound financial health, the company's dividend is perceived as safe and reliable.
Favorable Gold Prices Bode Well for NEM Stock
Newmont stands to benefit from elevated gold prices, which should drive its profitability and cash flow generation. While gold prices have fallen from their January 2026 highs, they remain supportive. Geopolitical tensions, a weaker U.S. dollar, tariff threats and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve drove bullion to a record high of nearly $5,600 per ounce in late January. This was followed by a brief pullback to below $4,900 per ounce due to aggressive profit-booking and a rebound in the U.S. dollar after hitting a four-year low.
The yellow metal strengthened again in early March, surging past $5,400 per ounce, as safe-haven demand spiked, following joint U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran. A stronger U.S. dollar, inflation fears tied to a spike in oil prices and the Fed’s hawkish tone weighed on gold prices, dragging bullion to near $4,400 per ounce in late March.
Bullion surged to near $4,800 per ounce in early April after the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, leading to crashing oil prices and easing inflation worries. This was followed by another brief pullback on inflation concerns following failed U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks and the announcement of a U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Gold prices again gained ground, surpassing $4,800 per ounce as oil prices fell on hopes of a U.S.-Iran truce, before slipping to near $4,700 per ounce on continued geopolitical tensions despite the U.S.-Iran ceasefire extension.
Gold further slipped to a one-month low below $4,600 per ounce in late April, stemming from inflation worries from a surge in oil prices amid stalled U.S.-Iran talks and closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Renewed escalation in the Middle East pulled down prices further to around $4,500 per ounce in early May, before climbing back above $4,700 per ounce later last week on hopes of de-escalation and a decline in oil prices. This week, prices remain near that level amid uncertainties linked to the Middle East tensions and inflation woes.
NEM saw lower gold production for the first quarter of 2026, partly linked to its strategic divestment of non-core assets. NEM reported a roughly 16% year-over-year and 10% sequential decline in attributable gold production to 1.3 million ounces. Newmont expects second-quarter 2026 production to be below the first-quarter level.
The company anticipates gold production at about 5.26 million ounces for 2026, indicating a year-over-year decline from 5.89 million ounces in 2025. NEM expects lower production from Penasquito and Cadia in 2026 due to the site transitions. It also sees lower-than-expected production from Nevada Gold Mines and Pueblo Viejo. These will be partly offset by contributions from the newly commissioned Ahafo North mine.
Lower production is also expected to lead to higher unit costs in 2026. NEM expects all-in-sustaining costs (AISC) — a critical cost metric for miners — to be $1,680 per ounce on a by-product basis, a notable increase from $1,358 per ounce in 2025. The expected increase is due to lower sales volumes as a result of planned mine sequencing, higher royalties and production taxes, deferral of sustaining capital from 2025 into 2026 and inventory changes. Newmont also sees a significant sequential increase in unit costs in the second quarter, partly due to increased sustaining capital spending, higher costs associated with sales at Boddington, Tanami, Lihir and Penasquito and increased oil prices. The production decline and higher costs could undercut the profitability goals.
NEM’s Earnings Estimates Northbound
Newmont’s earnings estimates for 2026 have been going up over the past 60 days. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter 2026 has also been revised higher over the same time frame.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 earnings is currently pegged at $9.73, suggesting year-over-year growth of 41.2%. Earnings are expected to grow roughly 59.4% in the second quarter.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
A Look at Newmont Stock’s Valuation
Newmont is currently trading at a forward price/earnings of 11.9X, a modest 0.5% discount to the industry’s average of 11.96X. NEM is trading at a discount to Barrick and Agnico Eagle and at a premium to Kinross Gold. Newmont, Barrick and Kinross Gold currently have a Value Score of B each, while Agnico Eagle has a Value Score of D.
NEM’s P/E F12M Vs. Industry, B, AEM and KGC
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Final Thoughts: Hold Onto NEM Shares
Newmont remains well-positioned for growth, supported by the solid performance of its operations and a strong pipeline of projects that are expected to increase production capacity, extend mine life and support higher revenues and earnings. The company’s asset optimization — focused on directing capital toward high-return, long-life operations — further strengthens its long-term outlook.
Other positives include rising earnings estimates and a healthy growth trajectory. Favorable bullion prices should also boost NEM’s profitability and drive cash flow generation. However, lower production stemming from divestitures and lower ore grades, along with elevated costs, could pressure overall performance. Retaining this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock will be prudent for investors who already own it.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Bigstock
Should You Buy, Sell or Hold NEM Stock After a 36% Rally in 6 Months?
Key Takeaways
Newmont Corporation's (NEM - Free Report) shares have climbed 36.3% in the past six months, fueled by an upswing in gold prices amid economic and geopolitical uncertainties and its forecast-topping earnings performance, driven by operational efficiency, higher realized prices and the strength of its asset portfolio.
NEM stock has outperformed the Zacks Mining – Gold industry’s 22.4% gain and the S&P 500’s increase of 11.8%. Among its gold mining peers, Barrick Mining Corporation (B - Free Report) , Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM - Free Report) and Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC - Free Report) have gained 23.8%, 17.2% and 24.7%, respectively.
NEM’s 6-month Price Performance
The NEM stock has been trading above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) since April 9, 2025, suggesting a long-term uptrend. It broke above its 50-day SMA on May 6, 2026. The 50-day SMA is reading higher than the 200-day SMA, following a golden crossover on April 16, 2025, indicating a bullish trend.
NEM Stock Trades Above 50-Day SMA
Let’s take a look at NEM’s fundamentals to analyze the stock better.
Key Projects & Asset Streamlining to Aid NEM’s Growth
Newmont continues to invest in growth projects in a calculated manner. The company is pursuing several projects, including the Cadia Panel Caves and Tanami Expansion 2 in Australia. These projects should expand Newmont’s production capacity and extend mine life, driving revenues and profits.
In October 2025, NEM achieved a significant milestone at Ahafo North. It achieved commercial production at the project, which followed the first gold pour in September 2025. Ahafo North is expected to produce between 275,000 and 325,000 ounces of gold annually over an estimated mine life of 13 years. Output is expected to be 315,000 ounces this year, with a ramp-up to full capacity.
Newmont has also divested non-core businesses as it shifts its strategic focus to Tier 1 assets. The company generated $3.6 billion from its portfolio optimization actions in 2025. These funds will support Newmont’s capital allocation strategy, which focuses on reinforcing its balance sheet and delivering returns to its shareholders.
Robust Financial Health Supports NEM’s Capital Allocation
Newmont has a strong liquidity position and generates substantial cash flows, which allow it to fund its growth projects, meet short-term debt obligations and drive shareholder value. At the end of the first quarter of 2026, Newmont had robust liquidity of roughly $12.8 billion, including cash and cash equivalents of around $8.8 billion. Its free cash flow surged 161% year over year to a record $3.1 billion in the first quarter, led by an increase in net cash from operating activities. Net cash from operating activities amounted to $3.8 billion in the first quarter, up from $2 billion in the year-ago quarter.
NEM has distributed $3.4 billion to its shareholders through dividends and share repurchases in 2025. It has returned $2.7 billion to its shareholders since Feb. 19, 2026. Newmont has executed repurchases of $6 billion under the earlier authorized share purchase programs, including $2.4 billion since the fourth-quarter 2025 earnings call. Its board has approved an additional $6 billion repurchase program. Newmont also remains committed to deleveraging, reducing debt by roughly $3.4 billion in 2025. It also reduced debt by an additional $42 million in the first quarter, resulting in a strong net cash position of $3.2 billion.
NEM offers a dividend yield of 0.9% at the current stock price. Its payout ratio is 12% (a ratio below 60% is a good indicator that the dividend will be sustainable). Backed by strong cash flows and sound financial health, the company's dividend is perceived as safe and reliable.
Favorable Gold Prices Bode Well for NEM Stock
Newmont stands to benefit from elevated gold prices, which should drive its profitability and cash flow generation. While gold prices have fallen from their January 2026 highs, they remain supportive. Geopolitical tensions, a weaker U.S. dollar, tariff threats and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve drove bullion to a record high of nearly $5,600 per ounce in late January. This was followed by a brief pullback to below $4,900 per ounce due to aggressive profit-booking and a rebound in the U.S. dollar after hitting a four-year low.
The yellow metal strengthened again in early March, surging past $5,400 per ounce, as safe-haven demand spiked, following joint U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran. A stronger U.S. dollar, inflation fears tied to a spike in oil prices and the Fed’s hawkish tone weighed on gold prices, dragging bullion to near $4,400 per ounce in late March.
Bullion surged to near $4,800 per ounce in early April after the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, leading to crashing oil prices and easing inflation worries. This was followed by another brief pullback on inflation concerns following failed U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks and the announcement of a U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Gold prices again gained ground, surpassing $4,800 per ounce as oil prices fell on hopes of a U.S.-Iran truce, before slipping to near $4,700 per ounce on continued geopolitical tensions despite the U.S.-Iran ceasefire extension.
Gold further slipped to a one-month low below $4,600 per ounce in late April, stemming from inflation worries from a surge in oil prices amid stalled U.S.-Iran talks and closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Renewed escalation in the Middle East pulled down prices further to around $4,500 per ounce in early May, before climbing back above $4,700 per ounce later last week on hopes of de-escalation and a decline in oil prices. This week, prices remain near that level amid uncertainties linked to the Middle East tensions and inflation woes.
Weaker Production, Higher Costs Cloud NEM’s Prospects
NEM saw lower gold production for the first quarter of 2026, partly linked to its strategic divestment of non-core assets. NEM reported a roughly 16% year-over-year and 10% sequential decline in attributable gold production to 1.3 million ounces. Newmont expects second-quarter 2026 production to be below the first-quarter level.
The company anticipates gold production at about 5.26 million ounces for 2026, indicating a year-over-year decline from 5.89 million ounces in 2025. NEM expects lower production from Penasquito and Cadia in 2026 due to the site transitions. It also sees lower-than-expected production from Nevada Gold Mines and Pueblo Viejo. These will be partly offset by contributions from the newly commissioned Ahafo North mine.
Lower production is also expected to lead to higher unit costs in 2026. NEM expects all-in-sustaining costs (AISC) — a critical cost metric for miners — to be $1,680 per ounce on a by-product basis, a notable increase from $1,358 per ounce in 2025. The expected increase is due to lower sales volumes as a result of planned mine sequencing, higher royalties and production taxes, deferral of sustaining capital from 2025 into 2026 and inventory changes. Newmont also sees a significant sequential increase in unit costs in the second quarter, partly due to increased sustaining capital spending, higher costs associated with sales at Boddington, Tanami, Lihir and Penasquito and increased oil prices. The production decline and higher costs could undercut the profitability goals.
NEM’s Earnings Estimates Northbound
Newmont’s earnings estimates for 2026 have been going up over the past 60 days. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter 2026 has also been revised higher over the same time frame.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 earnings is currently pegged at $9.73, suggesting year-over-year growth of 41.2%. Earnings are expected to grow roughly 59.4% in the second quarter.
A Look at Newmont Stock’s Valuation
Newmont is currently trading at a forward price/earnings of 11.9X, a modest 0.5% discount to the industry’s average of 11.96X. NEM is trading at a discount to Barrick and Agnico Eagle and at a premium to Kinross Gold. Newmont, Barrick and Kinross Gold currently have a Value Score of B each, while Agnico Eagle has a Value Score of D.
NEM’s P/E F12M Vs. Industry, B, AEM and KGC
Final Thoughts: Hold Onto NEM Shares
Newmont remains well-positioned for growth, supported by the solid performance of its operations and a strong pipeline of projects that are expected to increase production capacity, extend mine life and support higher revenues and earnings. The company’s asset optimization — focused on directing capital toward high-return, long-life operations — further strengthens its long-term outlook.
Other positives include rising earnings estimates and a healthy growth trajectory. Favorable bullion prices should also boost NEM’s profitability and drive cash flow generation. However, lower production stemming from divestitures and lower ore grades, along with elevated costs, could pressure overall performance. Retaining this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock will be prudent for investors who already own it.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.