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PFE Stock Declines Post Q1 Beat: Book Profits or Stay Invested?
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Key Takeaways
Pfizer's oncology sales rose 7% in Q1, led by Padcev, Lorbrena and oncology biosimilars.
PFE expects COVID revenue to fall to about $5B in 2026 as Comirnaty and Paxlovid sales weaken.
Pfizer targets long-term growth through oncology, obesity pipeline expansion and recent acquisitions.
Pfizer’s (PFE - Free Report) stock declined a little more than 1% following its first-quarter 2026 results on May 5, despite beating estimates for both earnings and sales. Sales rose 2% on an operational basis while earnings declined 18% year over year. The stock declined despite a robust first-quarter performance as the company only reaffirmed its 2026 sales and earnings guidance and did not raise it. Investors had probably hoped that the company would increase its 2026 guidance after the earnings beat. Sales of its COVID products, Comirnaty and Paxlovid, continued to decline sharply while investors remain worried about upcoming patent expirations.
Pfizer’s unimpressive stock movement after the first-quarter release has left investors uncertain about whether to buy, sell, or hold the stock. To make a more informed decision, it is important to evaluate the company’s fundamentals by examining its key strengths and weaknesses.
PFE Enjoys a Strong Position in Oncology
Pfizer is one of the largest and most successful drugmakers in oncology. Its position in oncology was strengthened with the acquisition of Seagen in 2023.
Oncology sales comprise around 27% of its total revenues. Its oncology revenues grew 7% to $3.8 billion in the first quarter of 2026, driven by drugs like Lorbrena, the Braftovi-Mektovi combination and Padcev. Pfizer has ventured into the oncology biosimilars space and markets six biosimilars for cancer. Its oncology biosimilars contributed $409 million in sales in the first quarter of 2026, up 52% year over year. Pfizer is also advancing its oncology clinical pipeline across areas such as breast, thoracic, gastrointestinal and blood cancer. Several oncology candidates have entered late-stage development. By 2030, it expects to have eight or more blockbuster oncology medicines in its portfolio.
PFE’s New & Acquired Products Drive Top-Line Growth
Pfizer’s dependence on its COVID business has now reduced. Its non-COVID operational revenues are improving, driven by key in-line products like Vyndaqel, Padcev and Eliquis, new launches and newly acquired products like Nurtec and those from Seagen. Revenues from Pfizer’s non-COVID products rose 7% operationally in the first quarter. Pfizer's recently launched and acquired products delivered revenues of $3.1 billion in the first quarter, rising 22% on a year-over-year basis. In 2026, Pfizer expects its recently launched and acquired products to record continued double-digit growth.
Pfizer is also trying to rebuild its pipeline through acquisitions. Seagen, Metsera and Biohaven are the most significant strategic acquisitions in recent years. In 2025, Pfizer invested around $9 billion in M&A deals, including the acquisition of Metsera and the licensing deal with 3SBio. The November 2025 acquisition of obesity drugmaker, Metsera, has brought Pfizer back into the lucrative obesity space after it scrapped the development of danuglipron, a weight-loss pill, early in 2025. The acquisition has added Metsera’s four novel clinical-stage incretin and amylin programs, which are expected to generate billions of dollars in peak sales. However, in the obesity space, Pfizer lags far behind leaders such as Eli Lilly (LLY - Free Report) and Novo Nordisk (NVO - Free Report) .
Pfizer is on track to start 20 pivotal studies in 2026, including 10 pivotal studies for the ultra-long-acting obesity candidates added from the Metsera acquisition and four for PF-08634404, a dual PD-1/VEGF inhibitor in-licensed from Chinese biotech 3SBio in 2025.
Pfizer expects its recently launched and acquired products and a strong pipeline to help revive top-line growth toward the end of the decade.
Declining Sales of PFE’s COVID Products
With the end of the pandemic, sales of Pfizer’s COVID products, Comirnaty and Paxlovid, came down to around $11 billion in 2024 and $6.7 billion in 2025 from $56.7 billion in 2022. Sales of Comirnaty are declining due to a narrow recommendation for COVID vaccines in the United States, while Paxlovid is experiencing reduced demand from lower infection rates. Sales of both Comirnaty and Paxlovid declined in the first quarter of 2026.
In 2026, Pfizer expects its COVID revenues to be around $5 billion, representing a decline from 2025 COVID sales of around $6.7 billion as COVID infection rates are expected to continue to decline.
PFE’s LOE Headwinds
Pfizer expects a significant negative impact on revenues from the loss of exclusivity (“LOE”) in the 2026-2030 period as several of its key products, including Eliquis, Ibrance, Xeljanz and Xtandi, face patent expirations. The LOE cliff is expected to hurt sales by approximately $1.5 billion in 2026.
PFE’s 2026 Financial Outlook is Dull
Pfizer’s revenue and earnings guidance for 2026 represents mostly flat to slightly negative growth.
Pfizer expects total revenues for 2026 to be between $59.5 billion and $62.5 billion. The range represents a decline from 2025 revenues of $62.6 billion due to lower revenues from COVID products, Comirnaty and Paxlovid, and loss of revenues from the upcoming patent cliff.
In 2026, Pfizer expects adjusted earnings per share in the range of $2.80-$3.00, which represents a decline from the 2025 EPS of $3.22 due to the dilutive impact of 3SBio and Metsera deals, lower COVID revenues and higher taxes.
PFE Stock’s Price, Estimates & Valuation
Pfizer’s stock has risen 4.3% so far this year against a decline of 2.3% for the industry.
PFE Stock Outperforms Industry
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, Pfizer appears attractive relative to the industry and is trading below its five-year mean. Going by the price/earnings ratio, Pfizer’s shares currently trade at 8.84 forward earnings, significantly lower than 16.73 for the industry as well as the stock’s five-year mean of 9.82. The stock is also much cheaper than other large drugmakers like AbbVie, Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly, AstraZeneca, J&J and others.
PFE Stock Valuation
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 earnings per share has risen from $2.98 to $3.00, while that for 2027 has risen from $2.82 to $2.86 over the past 30 days.
PFE Estimate Movement
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Stay Invested in PFE Stock
Pfizer is undergoing a major transition. It faces several near-term challenges like declining COVID sales, the upcoming LOE cliff and U.S. Medicare Part D headwinds, among others. However, after taking a hit over the past three years largely due to a sharp decline in sales of its COVID-related products, Pfizer’s stock is now showing signs of a gradual recovery. This rebound is being supported by better-than-expected quarterly results, ongoing cost-cutting initiatives, pipeline successes and recent M&A activity.
The company is rebuilding its pipeline in oncology and obesity, which it believes can drive growth in 2028 and beyond. Although Pfizer’s 2026 sales guidance indicates minimal growth, the company expects high single-digit revenue CAGR for five years starting in 2029. Pfizer expects the growth to be driven by its advancing R&D pipeline and the continued progress of new and acquired products.
The company also expects its recent patent settlement agreements related to its key drug, Vyndamax, to significantly improve its post-2028 growth outlook and strengthen confidence in achieving its targeted high single-digit revenue CAGR after 2029.
Pfizer’s significant cost reduction and efforts to improve R&D productivity measures are also driving profit growth. Pfizer’s dividend yield stands at around 6.6%, which is also impressive.
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Image: Bigstock
PFE Stock Declines Post Q1 Beat: Book Profits or Stay Invested?
Key Takeaways
Pfizer’s (PFE - Free Report) stock declined a little more than 1% following its first-quarter 2026 results on May 5, despite beating estimates for both earnings and sales. Sales rose 2% on an operational basis while earnings declined 18% year over year. The stock declined despite a robust first-quarter performance as the company only reaffirmed its 2026 sales and earnings guidance and did not raise it. Investors had probably hoped that the company would increase its 2026 guidance after the earnings beat. Sales of its COVID products, Comirnaty and Paxlovid, continued to decline sharply while investors remain worried about upcoming patent expirations.
Pfizer’s unimpressive stock movement after the first-quarter release has left investors uncertain about whether to buy, sell, or hold the stock. To make a more informed decision, it is important to evaluate the company’s fundamentals by examining its key strengths and weaknesses.
PFE Enjoys a Strong Position in Oncology
Pfizer is one of the largest and most successful drugmakers in oncology. Its position in oncology was strengthened with the acquisition of Seagen in 2023.
Oncology sales comprise around 27% of its total revenues. Its oncology revenues grew 7% to $3.8 billion in the first quarter of 2026, driven by drugs like Lorbrena, the Braftovi-Mektovi combination and Padcev. Pfizer has ventured into the oncology biosimilars space and markets six biosimilars for cancer. Its oncology biosimilars contributed $409 million in sales in the first quarter of 2026, up 52% year over year. Pfizer is also advancing its oncology clinical pipeline across areas such as breast, thoracic, gastrointestinal and blood cancer. Several oncology candidates have entered late-stage development. By 2030, it expects to have eight or more blockbuster oncology medicines in its portfolio.
PFE’s New & Acquired Products Drive Top-Line Growth
Pfizer’s dependence on its COVID business has now reduced. Its non-COVID operational revenues are improving, driven by key in-line products like Vyndaqel, Padcev and Eliquis, new launches and newly acquired products like Nurtec and those from Seagen. Revenues from Pfizer’s non-COVID products rose 7% operationally in the first quarter. Pfizer's recently launched and acquired products delivered revenues of $3.1 billion in the first quarter, rising 22% on a year-over-year basis. In 2026, Pfizer expects its recently launched and acquired products to record continued double-digit growth.
Pfizer is also trying to rebuild its pipeline through acquisitions. Seagen, Metsera and Biohaven are the most significant strategic acquisitions in recent years. In 2025, Pfizer invested around $9 billion in M&A deals, including the acquisition of Metsera and the licensing deal with 3SBio. The November 2025 acquisition of obesity drugmaker, Metsera, has brought Pfizer back into the lucrative obesity space after it scrapped the development of danuglipron, a weight-loss pill, early in 2025. The acquisition has added Metsera’s four novel clinical-stage incretin and amylin programs, which are expected to generate billions of dollars in peak sales. However, in the obesity space, Pfizer lags far behind leaders such as Eli Lilly (LLY - Free Report) and Novo Nordisk (NVO - Free Report) .
Pfizer is on track to start 20 pivotal studies in 2026, including 10 pivotal studies for the ultra-long-acting obesity candidates added from the Metsera acquisition and four for PF-08634404, a dual PD-1/VEGF inhibitor in-licensed from Chinese biotech 3SBio in 2025.
Pfizer expects its recently launched and acquired products and a strong pipeline to help revive top-line growth toward the end of the decade.
Declining Sales of PFE’s COVID Products
With the end of the pandemic, sales of Pfizer’s COVID products, Comirnaty and Paxlovid, came down to around $11 billion in 2024 and $6.7 billion in 2025 from $56.7 billion in 2022. Sales of Comirnaty are declining due to a narrow recommendation for COVID vaccines in the United States, while Paxlovid is experiencing reduced demand from lower infection rates. Sales of both Comirnaty and Paxlovid declined in the first quarter of 2026.
In 2026, Pfizer expects its COVID revenues to be around $5 billion, representing a decline from 2025 COVID sales of around $6.7 billion as COVID infection rates are expected to continue to decline.
PFE’s LOE Headwinds
Pfizer expects a significant negative impact on revenues from the loss of exclusivity (“LOE”) in the 2026-2030 period as several of its key products, including Eliquis, Ibrance, Xeljanz and Xtandi, face patent expirations. The LOE cliff is expected to hurt sales by approximately $1.5 billion in 2026.
PFE’s 2026 Financial Outlook is Dull
Pfizer’s revenue and earnings guidance for 2026 represents mostly flat to slightly negative growth.
Pfizer expects total revenues for 2026 to be between $59.5 billion and $62.5 billion. The range represents a decline from 2025 revenues of $62.6 billion due to lower revenues from COVID products, Comirnaty and Paxlovid, and loss of revenues from the upcoming patent cliff.
In 2026, Pfizer expects adjusted earnings per share in the range of $2.80-$3.00, which represents a decline from the 2025 EPS of $3.22 due to the dilutive impact of 3SBio and Metsera deals, lower COVID revenues and higher taxes.
PFE Stock’s Price, Estimates & Valuation
Pfizer’s stock has risen 4.3% so far this year against a decline of 2.3% for the industry.
PFE Stock Outperforms Industry
From a valuation standpoint, Pfizer appears attractive relative to the industry and is trading below its five-year mean. Going by the price/earnings ratio, Pfizer’s shares currently trade at 8.84 forward earnings, significantly lower than 16.73 for the industry as well as the stock’s five-year mean of 9.82. The stock is also much cheaper than other large drugmakers like AbbVie, Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly, AstraZeneca, J&J and others.
PFE Stock Valuation
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 earnings per share has risen from $2.98 to $3.00, while that for 2027 has risen from $2.82 to $2.86 over the past 30 days.
PFE Estimate Movement
Stay Invested in PFE Stock
Pfizer is undergoing a major transition. It faces several near-term challenges like declining COVID sales, the upcoming LOE cliff and U.S. Medicare Part D headwinds, among others. However, after taking a hit over the past three years largely due to a sharp decline in sales of its COVID-related products, Pfizer’s stock is now showing signs of a gradual recovery. This rebound is being supported by better-than-expected quarterly results, ongoing cost-cutting initiatives, pipeline successes and recent M&A activity.
The company is rebuilding its pipeline in oncology and obesity, which it believes can drive growth in 2028 and beyond. Although Pfizer’s 2026 sales guidance indicates minimal growth, the company expects high single-digit revenue CAGR for five years starting in 2029. Pfizer expects the growth to be driven by its advancing R&D pipeline and the continued progress of new and acquired products.
The company also expects its recent patent settlement agreements related to its key drug, Vyndamax, to significantly improve its post-2028 growth outlook and strengthen confidence in achieving its targeted high single-digit revenue CAGR after 2029.
Pfizer’s significant cost reduction and efforts to improve R&D productivity measures are also driving profit growth. Pfizer’s dividend yield stands at around 6.6%, which is also impressive.
Long-term investors may consider staying invested in this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.