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TJX Q1 Earnings on Deck: Essential Insights Ahead of the Report

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Key Takeaways

  • The TJX Companies saw strong traffic, fresh assortments and gains with younger shoppers.
  • TJX expects Q1 comparable sales growth of 2-3% and EPS between 97 cents and 99 cents.
  • The TJX Companies cited "off the charts" merchandise availability to support fresh assortments.

The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX - Free Report) is likely to register top and bottom-line growth when it reports first-quarter fiscal 2027 earnings on May 20. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $13.94 billion, which indicates a 6.3% increase from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

The consensus estimate, which has remained unchanged over the past 30 days at $1.00 per share, calls for an 8.7% rise compared with the same period last year. TJX delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 4.9%, on average.

The TJX Companies, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

The TJX Companies, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

The TJX Companies, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | The TJX Companies, Inc. Quote

Things to Know Ahead of TJX’s Q1 Earnings

The TJX Companies has been benefiting from the strength of its off-price retail model, which remains appealing to value-conscious consumers in an uncertain macroeconomic environment. The company has been witnessing healthy customer traffic and transaction growth across banners, supported by its compelling branded merchandise assortment, flexible buying model and strong value positioning. On its last earnings call, management highlighted that the fiscal first quarter started on a strong note, aided by the outstanding availability of quality merchandise in the marketplace and the company’s ability to flow fresh assortments to stores and online channels throughout the spring season.

Per the last earnings call, TJX’s aggressive marketing initiatives, ongoing store remodels and focus on enhancing the in-store treasure-hunt shopping experience are likely to have supported sales momentum in the to-be-reported quarter. The company also noted continued success in attracting younger shoppers and gaining market share across income demographics. In addition, management stated that liquidity levels remained strong and merchandise availability was “off the charts,” enabling buyers to capitalize on favorable marketplace opportunities and maintain an exciting mix of branded goods.
 
For the first quarter of fiscal 2027, The TJX Companies expects consolidated comparable store sales growth of 2-3%, with consolidated sales projected in the range of $13.8-$13.9 billion. The company anticipates a pretax profit margin of 10.3-10.4% and earnings per share between 97 cents and 99 cents, implying year-over-year growth of 5-8%.

However, TJX continues to face certain cost pressures that might have weighed on profitability. Incremental store wage and payroll expenses are expected to have pressured SG&A costs in the fiscal first quarter. Additionally, the company remains cautious regarding the evolving tariff environment and related uncertainties. However, management expects to offset the tariff impact through its flexible off-price business model and merchandising capabilities.

Earnings Whispers for TJX Stock

Our proven model doesn’t conclusively predict an earnings beat for The TJX Companies this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chance of an earnings beat, which is not the case here. 

The TJX Companies currently has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Some Stocks With a Favorable Combination

Here are some companies worth considering, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.

Casey's General Stores (CASY - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.02% and a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Casey's upcoming quarter’s EPS is pegged at $3.44, which implies 30.8% growth year over year. The consensus estimate for the quarterly revenues is pinned at $4.33 billion, which indicates 8.4% growth from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. CASY delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 20%, on average.

Lowe's Companies (LOW - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.57% and a Zacks Rank #3. The consensus estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $22.91 billion, which indicates an increase of 9.5% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Lowe's Companies’ upcoming quarter’s earnings per share is pegged at $2.96, implying a 1.4% year-over-year decline. LOW delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 2.1%, on average.

Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.02% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its upcoming quarter’s revenues is pegged at $69.36 billion, indicating a 9.7% rise from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.

The consensus estimate for Costco’s earnings is pegged at $4.91 per share, implying 14.7% growth from the year-ago quarter. COST delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 1.1%, on average.

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