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Grasberg Disruptions Weigh on FCX's Q1 Volumes: What Lies Ahead?
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Key Takeaways
Freeport lowered 2026 copper sales guidance after delays at the Grasberg Block Cave mine.
FCX's Q1 copper sales fell 25% year over year due to Grasberg disruptions.
BHP and SCCO also reported weaker copper sales volumes in recent quarterly results.
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX - Free Report) delivered first-quarter 2026 earnings and revenue above expectations, driven by higher copper and gold prices, though weaker sales volumes were a drag. Its copper sales volumes tumbled approximately 25% year over year in the first quarter to 657 million pounds, and fell from 709 million pounds in the prior quarter.
The downside primarily resulted from lower operating rates due to the temporary suspension of operations since the mud rush incident at the Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia in September 2025.
While the company’s outlook for copper sales volumes for the second quarter of 690 million pounds indicates a sequential improvement, it still suggests a 32% year-over-year decline. For full-year 2026, consolidated sales volume projections were revised lower to around 3.1 billion pounds of copper from the prior view of 3.4 billion pounds due to an expected delay in achieving full ramp-up of the Grasberg Block Cave mine.
Sales volume growth underpins Freeport’s ability to leverage higher copper and gold prices, maintain margin expansion and deliver on its targets. Despite gains in realized prices, lower expected volumes are likely to strain its financials.
Among FCX’s peers, Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO - Free Report) logged lower copper sales volumes in the first quarter. Southern Copper sold 231,770 tons of copper in the quarter, declining nearly 5% year over year. Southern Copper also saw lower molybdenum sales volumes, which fell roughly 3% year over year.
BHP Group Limited (BHP - Free Report) saw lower year-over-year copper sales in the third quarter of fiscal 2026 (ended March 31, 2026). BHP Group’s copper sales for the quarter fell roughly 12% year over year to 468.7kt. BHP Group’s total copper sales for the nine-month period also declined around 7% from the prior-year period.
The Zacks Rundown for FCX
Shares of Freeport-McMoRan have gained 32.2% year to date compared with the Zacks Mining - Non Ferrous industry’s rise of 31%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, FCX is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 23.29, a 3.5% discount to the industry average of 24.14X. It carries a Value Score of C.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FCX’s 2026 and 2027 earnings implies a year-over-year rise of 44.6% and 34%, respectively. The EPS estimates for 2026 and 2027 have been trending higher over the past 60 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
FCX stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Bigstock
Grasberg Disruptions Weigh on FCX's Q1 Volumes: What Lies Ahead?
Key Takeaways
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX - Free Report) delivered first-quarter 2026 earnings and revenue above expectations, driven by higher copper and gold prices, though weaker sales volumes were a drag. Its copper sales volumes tumbled approximately 25% year over year in the first quarter to 657 million pounds, and fell from 709 million pounds in the prior quarter.
The downside primarily resulted from lower operating rates due to the temporary suspension of operations since the mud rush incident at the Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia in September 2025.
While the company’s outlook for copper sales volumes for the second quarter of 690 million pounds indicates a sequential improvement, it still suggests a 32% year-over-year decline. For full-year 2026, consolidated sales volume projections were revised lower to around 3.1 billion pounds of copper from the prior view of 3.4 billion pounds due to an expected delay in achieving full ramp-up of the Grasberg Block Cave mine.
Sales volume growth underpins Freeport’s ability to leverage higher copper and gold prices, maintain margin expansion and deliver on its targets. Despite gains in realized prices, lower expected volumes are likely to strain its financials.
Among FCX’s peers, Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO - Free Report) logged lower copper sales volumes in the first quarter. Southern Copper sold 231,770 tons of copper in the quarter, declining nearly 5% year over year. Southern Copper also saw lower molybdenum sales volumes, which fell roughly 3% year over year.
BHP Group Limited (BHP - Free Report) saw lower year-over-year copper sales in the third quarter of fiscal 2026 (ended March 31, 2026). BHP Group’s copper sales for the quarter fell roughly 12% year over year to 468.7kt. BHP Group’s total copper sales for the nine-month period also declined around 7% from the prior-year period.
The Zacks Rundown for FCX
Shares of Freeport-McMoRan have gained 32.2% year to date compared with the Zacks Mining - Non Ferrous industry’s rise of 31%.
From a valuation standpoint, FCX is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 23.29, a 3.5% discount to the industry average of 24.14X. It carries a Value Score of C.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FCX’s 2026 and 2027 earnings implies a year-over-year rise of 44.6% and 34%, respectively. The EPS estimates for 2026 and 2027 have been trending higher over the past 60 days.
FCX stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.