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Flowers Foods Set to Release Q1 Earnings: Key Insights for Investors
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Key Takeaways
FLO's Q1 revenues are expected to rise 0.5% year over year to nearly $1.56 billion.
Flowers Foods gains from strength in Dave's Killer Bread, Nature's Own and Simple Mills sales.
FLO faces margin pressure from inflation, weak bread demand and cautious consumer spending.
Flowers Foods, Inc. (FLO - Free Report) is likely to witness top-line growth when it reports first-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings on May 21, after market close. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at around $1.56 billion, indicating a 0.5% increase from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.
The consensus mark for earnings has remained unchanged in the past 30 days at 28 cents per share, implying a decline of 20% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. FLO has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 8.3%, on average.
Flowers Foods, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Factors Likely to Influence FLO’s Upcoming Results
Flowers Foods’ first-quarter fiscal 2026 performance is likely to have benefited from continued strength across its branded portfolio and contributions from the Simple Mills acquisition. On its last earnings call, management highlighted sustained momentum in brands such as Dave’s Killer Bread, Nature’s Own and Wonder, particularly in faster-growing segments like specialty premium loaf, breakfast and buns and rolls.
Innovation in better-for-you offerings, expanded distribution gains and favorable consumer response to newer products are expected to have supported branded retail sales trends during the quarter. Our model suggests branded retail sales growth of 1% year over year in the fiscal first quarter.
The company is also likely to have gained from continued growth in Simple Mills and pricing actions implemented late in the fiscal fourth quarter. Management noted that Simple Mills continued to outperform its categories, supported by expanded distribution, innovation and positive velocity trends. In addition, pricing increases taken across branded retail products to offset inflationary pressures are expected to have aided revenue growth in the fiscal first quarter.
However, Flowers Foods is expected to continue facing headwinds from weakness in the traditional packaged bread category and elevated cost pressures. Management noted that traditional loaf trends remained challenging, while cautious consumer spending and value-seeking behavior continued to pressure volumes. At the same time, inflationary pressures related to labor, logistics and commodity inputs, along with higher marketing and innovation investments, are likely to have weighed on margins and earnings performance in the quarter. We expect the adjusted operating margin to contract 90 basis points to 6.4% in the quarter under review.
Earnings Whispers for FLO
Our proven model doesn’t conclusively predict an earnings beat for Flowers Foods this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here.
Flowers Foods carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) and has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Stocks With the Favorable Combination
Here are some companies worth considering, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Casey's upcoming quarter’s EPS is pegged at $3.44, which implies 30.8% growth year over year. The consensus estimate for the quarterly revenues is pinned at $4.33 billion, which indicates 8.4% growth from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. CASY delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 20%, on average.
Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.82% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its upcoming quarter’s revenues is pegged at $69.36 billion, indicating a 9.7% rise from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.
The consensus estimate for Costco’s earnings is pegged at $4.91 per share, implying 14.7% growth from the year-ago quarter. COST delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 1.1%, on average.
Target Corporation (TGT - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +4.19% and a Zacks Rank #3. The consensus estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $24.37 billion, which indicates an increase of 2.2% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Target’s upcoming quarter’s earnings per share is pegged at $1.35, implying 3.9% year-over-year growth. TGT delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of negative 2%, on average.
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Flowers Foods Set to Release Q1 Earnings: Key Insights for Investors
Key Takeaways
Flowers Foods, Inc. (FLO - Free Report) is likely to witness top-line growth when it reports first-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings on May 21, after market close. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at around $1.56 billion, indicating a 0.5% increase from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.
The consensus mark for earnings has remained unchanged in the past 30 days at 28 cents per share, implying a decline of 20% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. FLO has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 8.3%, on average.
Flowers Foods, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Flowers Foods, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Flowers Foods, Inc. Quote
Factors Likely to Influence FLO’s Upcoming Results
Flowers Foods’ first-quarter fiscal 2026 performance is likely to have benefited from continued strength across its branded portfolio and contributions from the Simple Mills acquisition. On its last earnings call, management highlighted sustained momentum in brands such as Dave’s Killer Bread, Nature’s Own and Wonder, particularly in faster-growing segments like specialty premium loaf, breakfast and buns and rolls.
Innovation in better-for-you offerings, expanded distribution gains and favorable consumer response to newer products are expected to have supported branded retail sales trends during the quarter. Our model suggests branded retail sales growth of 1% year over year in the fiscal first quarter.
The company is also likely to have gained from continued growth in Simple Mills and pricing actions implemented late in the fiscal fourth quarter. Management noted that Simple Mills continued to outperform its categories, supported by expanded distribution, innovation and positive velocity trends. In addition, pricing increases taken across branded retail products to offset inflationary pressures are expected to have aided revenue growth in the fiscal first quarter.
However, Flowers Foods is expected to continue facing headwinds from weakness in the traditional packaged bread category and elevated cost pressures. Management noted that traditional loaf trends remained challenging, while cautious consumer spending and value-seeking behavior continued to pressure volumes. At the same time, inflationary pressures related to labor, logistics and commodity inputs, along with higher marketing and innovation investments, are likely to have weighed on margins and earnings performance in the quarter. We expect the adjusted operating margin to contract 90 basis points to 6.4% in the quarter under review.
Earnings Whispers for FLO
Our proven model doesn’t conclusively predict an earnings beat for Flowers Foods this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here.
Flowers Foods carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) and has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Stocks With the Favorable Combination
Here are some companies worth considering, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.
Casey's General Stores (CASY - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.02% and a Zacks Rank of 2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Casey's upcoming quarter’s EPS is pegged at $3.44, which implies 30.8% growth year over year. The consensus estimate for the quarterly revenues is pinned at $4.33 billion, which indicates 8.4% growth from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. CASY delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 20%, on average.
Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.82% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its upcoming quarter’s revenues is pegged at $69.36 billion, indicating a 9.7% rise from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.
The consensus estimate for Costco’s earnings is pegged at $4.91 per share, implying 14.7% growth from the year-ago quarter. COST delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 1.1%, on average.
Target Corporation (TGT - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +4.19% and a Zacks Rank #3. The consensus estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $24.37 billion, which indicates an increase of 2.2% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Target’s upcoming quarter’s earnings per share is pegged at $1.35, implying 3.9% year-over-year growth. TGT delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of negative 2%, on average.