A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Bank OZK (OZK Quick QuoteOZK - Free Report) . Shares have added about 1.6% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Bank OZK due for a pullback? Well, first let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent drivers for Bank OZK before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.

Bank OZK Q1 Earnings Miss Estimates, Expenses & Provisions Rise Y/Y

Bank OZK’s first-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings per share of $1.44 missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.46.  Also, the bottom line declined 2% year over year.

Results were primarily hurt by higher provisions for credit losses and a rise in operating expenses. A decline in non-interest income also acted as a headwind. Nevertheless, solid net interest income growth supported the top line. Healthy loans and deposits balance provided support.

Net income available to common shareholders was $159.3 million, down 5.1% from the year-ago quarter’s $167.9 million. Our estimate for the metric was $162.4 million.

Revenues & Expenses Rise

Net revenues were $418.1 million, up 2.2% year over year. The top line missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $421.9 million.

NII was $385.6 million, up 3% year over year. Our estimate for the metric was $386.5 million.

The net interest margin, on a fully-taxable-equivalent basis, contracted 11 basis points year over year to 4.20%. Our estimate for NIM was 4.21%.

Non-interest income was $32.5 million, down 6.3% from the year-ago quarter. Our estimate for the metric was $35.4 million.

Non-interest expenses were $164.5 million, up 12% from the prior-year quarter. The increase was driven by higher salaries and employee benefits, net occupancy and equipment costs, and other operating expenses. We expected this metric to be $158.5 million.

Bank OZK’s efficiency ratio was 38.96%, up from 35.60% in the year-ago quarter, indicating reduced profitability.

Loans & Deposit Balances Increase

As of March 31, 2026, total loans were $33 billion, up 2% from the prior quarter. Total deposits were $33.8 billion, reflecting a 1.1 % increase. Our estimates for total loans and deposits were $32.1 billion and $35.1 billion, respectively.

Credit Quality Weakens

Net charge-offs to average total loans grew to 0.57% from 0.25% in the year-ago quarter. Provision for credit losses was $41.9 million, rising 9.2% year over year. We projected provisions of $47.4 million.

The ratio of non-performing loans to total loans was 0.90% as of March 31, 2026, up from 0.20% a year ago.

Profitability Ratios Decline

At the end of the first quarter, return on average assets was 1.58%, down from 1.77% in the year-earlier quarter. Return on average common equity also declined to 11.06% from 12.52%.

Outlook

If there are rate cuts, the company’s loan yields are expected to decrease faster than its deposit costs, resulting in some decrease in NIM. Conversely, if there is a rate increase, loan yields are expected to increase faster than deposit costs, resulting in an increase in NIM.

NII is expected to be higher in each subsequent quarter of 2026 driven by increased days and growth in average earning assets.

During 2025, Bank OZK increased resources aimed at growing non-interest income, which includes increasing revenue from secondary market mortgage lending, trust and wealth, treasury management and CIB-related fee-generating businesses. These efforts are expected to contribute to a mid-to high-single digit percentage increase in non-interest income in 2026 and to contribute additional earnings growth in 2027 and subsequent years.

In 2026, non-interest expenses are expected to grow 8-9% compared to 2025, reflecting the company’s continued investments to support future growth and greater portfolio diversification.

RESG is expected to have elevated repayments in most quarters through 2026 and thus, RESG’s percentage of loans will likely continue to decline in 2026.

Management expects origination volumes in 2026 to be similar to the levels achieved in 2024 and 2025.

For 2026, management expects loan growth in the mid-single digit percentage rate, including strong CIB growth offset by significant RESG loan repayments. For 2027, loan growth is expected to accelerate to 10-11% with headwinds from RESG repayments subsiding while CIB and other lending teams expected to grow significantly.

As a result of the purchases made during the first quarter, the tax-equivalent yield on investment securities is expected to increase in the second quarter of 2026 to 4.6-4.7%.

2026 net charge-off ratio is expected to be roughly in line with 2025.

The effective tax rate is expected to be 23-24% in 2026.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates.

VGM Scores

Currently, Bank OZK has a subpar Growth Score of D, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the second quintile for value investors.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Interestingly, Bank OZK has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.