A month has gone by since the last earnings report for CSX (CSX Quick QuoteCSX - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 0.6% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is CSX due for a breakout? Well, first let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent drivers for CSX Corporation before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.

Earnings Beat at CSX  in Q1

CSX reported mixed first-quarter 2026 results wherein earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate while revenues missed the mark.

Quarterly earnings per share of 43 cents surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 39 cents and increased 26% on a year-over-year basis as well. Results were aided revenue growth and reduction in operating expense

Total revenues of $3.48 billion missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.51 billion. The top line increased 2% year-over-year on the back of higher merchandise pricing, intermodal volume growth, higher domestic coal revenue, and increased fuel surcharge revenue. These were partially offset by a decrease in export coal revenue, including the impact of lower benchmark rates.

First-quarter operating income increased 20% year over year to $1.25 billion. Total expenses decreased 6% year over year. CSX’s operating margin during the March quarter rose to 36% from 30.4% in the year-ago quarter. Total volumes inched up 3% year over year, boosted by intermodal volumes.

Q1 Segmental Performance of CSX

Merchandise revenues grew 2% year over year to $2.18 billion (matched with our estimate figure) in the reported quarter. Merchandise volumes rose marginally to $631 million. Segmental revenue per unit inched up 2% year over year.

Intermodal revenues increased 5% year over year to $518 million (below our estimate of $551.5 million). Segmental volumes increased 6% while revenue per unit was down 1% year over year.

Coal revenues slid 1% year over year to $458 million in the reported quarter. Coal volumes inched down 1% year over year, while segmental revenue per unit fell marginally.

Trucking revenues totaled $202 million (above our estimate of $183.4 million), flat year over year. Other revenues rose 1% year over year to $116 million in the reported quarter.

CSX’s Liquidity

CSX exited the first quarter of 2026 with cash and cash equivalents of $964 million compared with $670 million at the end of prior quarter. Long-term debt of $18.2 billion was flat sequentially.

2026 Guidance From CSX

For full year 2026, CSX now expects mid-single digit revenue growth (including fuel, based on the current forward curve for diesel) compared with the prior guidance of low single-digit revenue growth.

Operating margin expansion is now anticipated towards the higher end of the 200-300 basis point range, while previously it was expected to be around 200-300 basis point.

Free Cash flow is now anticipated to increase more than 60% compared with the prior expectation of growth of at least 50%. CSX continues to expect capital expenditures to be below $2.4 billion.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

Since the earnings release, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates revision.

VGM Scores

At this time, CSX has a subpar Growth Score of D, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with a B. However, the stock was allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Interestingly, CSX has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.