It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Amerisafe (AMSF Quick QuoteAMSF - Free Report) . Shares have added about 0.7% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

But investors have to be wondering, will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Amerisafe due for a pullback? Well, first let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent drivers for AMERISAFE, Inc. before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.

AMSF Q1 Earnings Miss Estimates on Higher Costs, Soft Underwriting

AMERISAFE reported first-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings per share of 50 cents, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 52 cents. The bottom line declined 16.7% year over year.

Operating revenues increased 7.9% year over year to $81.75 million but missed the consensus estimate by 0.9%.

The quarterly result was affected by higher expenses and weaker underwriting margins, with additional pressure from lower fee income and weaker investment income. Stronger premium growth partially offset the downside.

AMSF’s Q1 Performance

Net premiums earned of $75.1 million advanced 9% year over year. The metric missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.8%. Net investment income declined 0.8% year over year to $6.6 million due to lower average investable assets, partly offset by higher yield and lower expenses. The reported figure missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.5%. Fee and other income fell 63.3% year over year.

Total expenses escalated 13.9% year over year to $69.9 million due to higher loss and loss adjustment expenses incurred, underwriting and other operating costs and policyholder dividends.

AMERISAFE’s pre-tax underwriting profit amounted to $5.1 million, which fell 31.5% year over year. Operating net income of $9.5 million declined 17.4% year over year in the reported quarter.

The net combined ratio deteriorated 410 basis points year over year to 93.2. The Zacks Consensus Estimates was pegged at 92.7.

Financial Update (as of March 31, 2026)

AMERISAFE exited the first quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $34.2 million, down from $61.9 million at the end of 2025. Total assets declined to $1.12 billion from $1.13 billion at the end of 2025.

Shareholders’ equity decreased to $246.6 million from $251.6 million a year ago.

Book value per share was $13.18, down 3.7% year over year. Return on average equity declined 70 basis points year over year to 13.1%.

Capital Deployment Update

AMERISAFE bought back common shares worth $4 million during the first quarter. As of March 31, 2026, it had $12.9 million left under its share buyback program.

Management approved a quarterly cash dividend of 41 cents per share, which will be paid on June 19, 2026, to shareholders of record as of June 12, 2026.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates revision.

VGM Scores

At this time, Amerisafe has a poor Growth Score of F, a score with the same score on the momentum front. However, the stock has a score of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision indicates a downward shift. Interestingly, Amerisafe has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.