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BigBear.ai's Backlog Expands: Can Contract Wins Drive Revenue Growth?
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Key Takeaways
BBAI grew Q1 2026 backlog to approximately $282M, up 14% from Q4 2025 on new orders booked.
BBAI booked a large classified sole-source deal with a roughly $53M ceiling, expected to run over two years.
BBAI's wins span airports, shipbuilding and GenAI, alongside reaffirmed 2026 revenue guidance of $135M-$165M.
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI - Free Report) is building a stronger contract base, with first-quarter backlog growth adding visibility across its national security, intelligence, trade and travel markets.
The company ended the first quarter of 2026 with a backlog of approximately $282 million, up roughly 14% from the fourth quarter of 2025. The increase was primarily driven by new orders booked during the quarter, including a large classified sole-source contract with an intelligence community customer. The award carries a ceiling value of approximately $53 million and is expected to be executed over the next two years, with BBAI serving as the prime contractor.
This backlog expansion marks an important step in BigBear.ai’s effort to strengthen revenue visibility across multiple end markets. The related contract activity was broad-based rather than concentrated in a single area. In trade and travel, the company is deploying veriScan and TrueFace capabilities at Chicago O’Hare and Dallas-Fort Worth under contracts with a combined value of $7 million. In shipbuilding, BBAI secured new work with Chantier Davie and Bollinger Shipyards, reflecting demand for ProModel and Shipyard AI. The company also expanded its GenAI footprint through new Ask Sage contracts with NASA, the Army’s Intelligence and Security Command and the Naval Research Lab.
The broader takeaway is that BBAI is entering the rest of 2026 with a deeper base of contracted work across multiple growth priorities. The company’s recent wins include classified intelligence work, airport deployments, shipbuilding-related demand and GenAI platform contracts, giving management more visible opportunities to convert customer activity into revenues over time.
For BBAI, the next phase of the growth narrative likely depends on backlog conversion. The company has reaffirmed 2026 revenue guidance of $135 million to $165 million, but the pace at which recent awards move into recognized revenues will be the key execution metric. If the new contracts ramp up on schedule, BBAI’s expanding backlog could provide a stronger base for revenue growth over the coming quarters.
Peer Comparisons: Palantir & C3.ai
Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR - Free Report) provides a useful contrast to BBAI because it has already built a much larger revenue and deal-value base from AI deployments. In the first quarter of 2026, Palantir ended with $11.8 billion in total remaining deal value, up 98% year over year, and $4.5 billion in remaining performance obligations, up 134%. Palantir also reported 85% year-over-year revenue growth.
C3.ai, Inc. (AI - Free Report) is a closer comparison of the conversion challenge. The company reported $46.9 million in quarterly bookings and had 258 active IPDs at quarter-end, including projects that were active, extended, converted to subscription or consumption contracts, or under negotiation for conversion. C3.ai also said that federal, defense and aerospace bookings increased 134% year over year and accounted for 55% of total bookings, showing demand in areas that overlap with BBAI’s national security focus.
Against this backdrop, BBAI’s competitive position rests on execution. Palantir reflects a more mature contract-to-revenue model, while C3.ai highlights the importance of moving AI engagements from bookings and IPDs into subscription or consumption contracts. BBAI’s next test is whether its intelligence, airport, shipbuilding and Ask Sage wins can support a steadier revenue trajectory.
BBAI Stock Price Performance & Valuation Trend
Shares of BBAI have trended 12.1% upward over the past month, outperforming the Zacks Computers - IT Services industry, as shown below.
BBAI’s 1-Month Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
BBAI stock is currently trading at a premium compared with the industry peers, with a forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 13.16, as evidenced by the chart below.
BBAI’s P/S Ratio (Forward 12-Month) vs. Industry
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BBAI’s 2026 earnings implies a year-over-year increase of 69.5%. Estimates for 2026 loss per share have narrowed in the past 30 days.
EPS Trend of BBAI
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
BigBear.ai currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Shutterstock
BigBear.ai's Backlog Expands: Can Contract Wins Drive Revenue Growth?
Key Takeaways
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI - Free Report) is building a stronger contract base, with first-quarter backlog growth adding visibility across its national security, intelligence, trade and travel markets.
The company ended the first quarter of 2026 with a backlog of approximately $282 million, up roughly 14% from the fourth quarter of 2025. The increase was primarily driven by new orders booked during the quarter, including a large classified sole-source contract with an intelligence community customer. The award carries a ceiling value of approximately $53 million and is expected to be executed over the next two years, with BBAI serving as the prime contractor.
This backlog expansion marks an important step in BigBear.ai’s effort to strengthen revenue visibility across multiple end markets. The related contract activity was broad-based rather than concentrated in a single area. In trade and travel, the company is deploying veriScan and TrueFace capabilities at Chicago O’Hare and Dallas-Fort Worth under contracts with a combined value of $7 million. In shipbuilding, BBAI secured new work with Chantier Davie and Bollinger Shipyards, reflecting demand for ProModel and Shipyard AI. The company also expanded its GenAI footprint through new Ask Sage contracts with NASA, the Army’s Intelligence and Security Command and the Naval Research Lab.
The broader takeaway is that BBAI is entering the rest of 2026 with a deeper base of contracted work across multiple growth priorities. The company’s recent wins include classified intelligence work, airport deployments, shipbuilding-related demand and GenAI platform contracts, giving management more visible opportunities to convert customer activity into revenues over time.
For BBAI, the next phase of the growth narrative likely depends on backlog conversion. The company has reaffirmed 2026 revenue guidance of $135 million to $165 million, but the pace at which recent awards move into recognized revenues will be the key execution metric. If the new contracts ramp up on schedule, BBAI’s expanding backlog could provide a stronger base for revenue growth over the coming quarters.
Peer Comparisons: Palantir & C3.ai
Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR - Free Report) provides a useful contrast to BBAI because it has already built a much larger revenue and deal-value base from AI deployments. In the first quarter of 2026, Palantir ended with $11.8 billion in total remaining deal value, up 98% year over year, and $4.5 billion in remaining performance obligations, up 134%. Palantir also reported 85% year-over-year revenue growth.
C3.ai, Inc. (AI - Free Report) is a closer comparison of the conversion challenge. The company reported $46.9 million in quarterly bookings and had 258 active IPDs at quarter-end, including projects that were active, extended, converted to subscription or consumption contracts, or under negotiation for conversion. C3.ai also said that federal, defense and aerospace bookings increased 134% year over year and accounted for 55% of total bookings, showing demand in areas that overlap with BBAI’s national security focus.
Against this backdrop, BBAI’s competitive position rests on execution. Palantir reflects a more mature contract-to-revenue model, while C3.ai highlights the importance of moving AI engagements from bookings and IPDs into subscription or consumption contracts. BBAI’s next test is whether its intelligence, airport, shipbuilding and Ask Sage wins can support a steadier revenue trajectory.
BBAI Stock Price Performance & Valuation Trend
Shares of BBAI have trended 12.1% upward over the past month, outperforming the Zacks Computers - IT Services industry, as shown below.
BBAI’s 1-Month Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
BBAI stock is currently trading at a premium compared with the industry peers, with a forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 13.16, as evidenced by the chart below.
BBAI’s P/S Ratio (Forward 12-Month) vs. Industry
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BBAI’s 2026 earnings implies a year-over-year increase of 69.5%. Estimates for 2026 loss per share have narrowed in the past 30 days.
EPS Trend of BBAI
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
BigBear.ai currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.