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Veracyte Stock Surges 65.8% in a Year: What's Driving the Rally?

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Key Takeaways

  • VCYT is up 65.8% in a year, outperforming the industry's decline and the S&P 500 gain.
  • VCYT Q1'26: Afirma volume about 17.2k ( 12%) rev 21%; Decipher vol about 28k ( 24%) rev 30%.
  • VCYT lifted 2026 revenue guide to $582-$592M and more than 26% adj EBITDA margin; ended Q1 with no debt.

Veracyte’s (VCYT - Free Report) shares have surged 65.8% over the past year, showing impressive momentum. It has significantly outperformed the industry’s 4.8% decline and the S&P 500 composite’s 33.1% gain.  

Presently carrying a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), the global diagnostics company continues to benefit from the robust performance of Afirma and Decipher tests. Their solid growth potential, along with strategic investments in the long-term growth drivers, is highly promising.

Based in San Francisco, CA, Veracyte offers advanced genomic tests that combine deep scientific, clinical and machine-learning expertise with other capabilities. Presently, the portfolio includes Afirma (for thyroid cancer), Decipher Prostate (prostate cancer), Prosigna (breast cancer) and Decipher Bladder (bladder cancer), with additional tests in development. The company also has operations in San Diego, CA; Austin, TX; and Haifa, Israel.

Key Catalysts for VCYT’s Growth

The rally in the company’s share price can be linked to the strength of both Afirma and Decipher Prostate tests. In the first quarter of 2026, Afirma volumes increased about 12% year over year to approximately 17,200 tests, and revenues rose 21%. 

In first-quarter 2026, Decipher volume grew 24% year over year to approximately 28,000 tests and revenues increased 30%. Management also noted traction in advanced disease, with nearly 30% growth across high-risk categories, such as radical prostatectomy, biochemical recurrence and metastatic disease, in the quarter.

Investors are impressed with Veracyte’s efforts to prioritize expansion into minimal residual disease and recurrence testing, broader international access through IVDs and novel products that address new clinical questions. In the first quarter, management reiterated that TrueMRD remains the next platform extension and said it is on track to launch TrueMRD for muscle-invasive bladder cancer by the end of the second quarter, initially targeting recurrence monitoring after curative-intent therapy.

The upcoming ASCO Annual Meeting presentation of the OPTIMA Phase III trial in June will describe Prosigna LDT as a means to enhance the biological classification of breast cancer in a large U.S. population of early-stage hormone receptor-positive patients eligible for testing. Beyond tests, Veracyte continues to advance its international strategy, with ongoing development efforts aimed at offering Decipher and Prosigna as future in vitro diagnostic (IVD) tests outside the United States. 

Zacks Investment Research

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Following the robust first-quarter results, the company raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $582-$592 million from the prior range of $570-$582 million. The company also increased its adjusted EBITDA margin outlook to above 26%. 

From solvency view point, Veracyte exited the first quarter of 2026 with cash and cash equivalents of $439 million and no current debt, reflecting strong solvency. The company’s ability to cover near-term obligations is further supported by a strong current ratio of 9.31. Consistent with the past quarters, it did not report any long-term debt at the end of the quarter under review. 

Risks for VCYT

Veracyte’s operations remain exposed to macroeconomic factors that can affect utilization, payer behavior, and operating costs, including inflation, interest rate volatility, foreign exchange fluctuations, and evolving international trade policies and government actions relating to tariffs. 

Further, ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and supply disruptions can potentially hamper its profitability. Geopolitical developments can add execution risk, including the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and related conditions in and around Israel that may disrupt the company’s Haifa operations tied to the C2i acquisition. 

A Glance at VCYT’s Estimates

In the past 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 earnings per share (EPS) has moved 10.2% north to $1.84. Revenues are projected to grow 12.2% to $580.3 million in 2026, while the same for 2027 is expected to reach $642.6 million (up 10.7%).  

Key Pick

Some better-ranked stocks in the broader medical space are Globus Medical (GMED - Free Report) , Integra LifeSciences (IART - Free Report) and Phibro Animal Health (PAHC - Free Report) . 

Globus Medical has an earnings yield of 5.5%, well ahead of the industry’s -3% yield. Its earnings surpassed estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 26.3%. The company’s shares have rallied 43.8% against the industry’s 4.8% decline over the past year.

GMED sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Integra LifeSciences, carrying a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) at present, has an earnings yield of 16% against the industry’s -3% yield. Shares of the company have gained 22.8% compared with the industry’s 4.8% growth. IART’s earnings topped estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 16.8%.

Phibro Animal Health, carrying a Zacks Rank #2 at present, has an earnings yield of 9.2% compared with the industry’s 2.8% yield. Shares of the company have climbed 43.1% against the industry’s 27.9% decline. PAHC’s earnings beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 16.3%.

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