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Should You Buy, Sell, or Hold HIG Stock at 9.97X Forward Earnings?
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Key Takeaways
HIG posted a 22.5% trailing 12-month ROE, far above the insurance industry average.
The Hartford's Q1 2026 Business Insurance underlying combined ratio improved to 89.2%.
HIG boosted shareholder returns with $450M in Q1 2026 buybacks and a higher dividend.
Shares of The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. (HIG - Free Report) have gained a modest 3.8% over the past year, outperforming the industry’s 5% decline, though trailing the S&P 500’s 30.3% advancement. The Hartford continues to execute well operationally, supported by strong business insurance growth, disciplined underwriting, rising investment income, and shareholder-friendly capital allocation.
Headquartered in Hartford, CT, the company is a leading multi-line insurer and investment provider in the United States. It offers a wide range of products, including investment solutions, group life and disability insurance, property and casualty (P&C) coverage, and mutual funds, with a market capitalization of approximately $37.3 billion.
Valuation of HIG
Its forward P/E ratio of 9.97 is lower than the industry average of 26.13, indicating a relatively attractive valuation. Supported by solid earnings prospects and consistent operating performance, HIG currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), along with a Value Score of A.
Estimates for HIG Stock
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for The Hartford is pegged at $13.14 per share for 2026 and at $14.39 per share for 2027. The top-line estimate for 2026 is pegged at $20.96 billion, representing a 4.9% increase from the prior-year level. Over the past 30 days, earnings estimates have seen two upward revisions against nine downward revisions. HIG beat earnings estimates in three of the past four quarters and missed once, with an average surprise of 16.47%.
The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
HIG has streamlined its business by exiting legacy run-off and non-core operations, allowing management to focus heavily on profitable commercial lines. This strategy is paying dividends in underwriting discipline and capital efficiency. The strength of the core business is highly visible in Business Insurance, where written premiums grew 6% year over year in the first quarter of 2026. While the segment's total combined ratio was 94.8%, its underlying combined ratio remained excellent at 89.2%.
The Hartford is investing heavily in AI, cloud infrastructure, and advanced analytics to improve underwriting accuracy, claims processing, and customer experience. AI-powered underwriting tools and real-time data insights are helping improve pricing consistency and risk selection. These operational improvements are translating into stronger profitability, with The Hartford generating a trailing 12-month ROE of 22.5%, significantly above the industry average of 7.4%.
The Hartford’s conservative yet diversified investment portfolio continues to provide stable income and downside protection. As of March 31, 2026, 95% of the fixed maturities portfolio was investment grade, supporting capital preservation and recurring income. At the same time, mortgage loans and alternative investments boosted returns. This balanced allocation helped net investment income rise 12.7% year over year to $739 million in the first quarter of 2026.
HIG maintains a highly shareholder-friendly capital allocation strategy through aggressive buybacks and growing dividends. It repurchased $1.6 billion worth of shares in 2025 and another $450 million during the first quarter of 2026, while retaining $1.1 billion under its current authorization. The Hartford also raised its quarterly dividend by 15% in late 2025. Its dividend yield of 1.8% remains well above the industry average of 0.3%, supported by strong operating cash flow of more than $1 billion during the first quarter of 2026.
Risks to Monitor
HIG remains exposed to elevated catastrophe risk from severe storms, wildfires, and other climate-related events. Catastrophe losses totaled $768 million in 2024, $748 million in 2025, and $230 million in the first quarter of 2026, continuing to pressure earnings visibility. Leverage remains above industry norms.
Long-term debt was $4.4 billion as of March 31, 2026, versus cash of $166 million, while its long-term debt-to-equity ratio of 23.6% exceeded the industry average of 1.2%, limiting financial flexibility during periods of market stress.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Mercury General’s 2026 earnings is pegged at $11.75 per share, indicating 48.7% year-over-year growth. MCY has witnessed one upward revision in the past 30 days, with no movement in the opposite direction. The consensus estimate for 2026 revenues is pinned at $6.4 billion, implying 8.5% year-over-year growth.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Hanover Insurance’s 2026 earnings is pegged at $18.46 per share, which has witnessed four upward revisions in the past 30 days, with no movement in the opposite direction. THG beat earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 28.5%. The consensus estimate for 2026 revenues is pinned at $6.95 billion, implying 4.7% year-over-year growth.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for United Fire’s 2026 earnings is pegged at $4.88 per share, indicating 6.1% year-over-year growth. UFCS beat earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 68.8%. The consensus estimate for 2026 revenues is pinned at $1.53 billion, implying 10.5% year-over-year growth.
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Should You Buy, Sell, or Hold HIG Stock at 9.97X Forward Earnings?
Key Takeaways
Shares of The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. (HIG - Free Report) have gained a modest 3.8% over the past year, outperforming the industry’s 5% decline, though trailing the S&P 500’s 30.3% advancement. The Hartford continues to execute well operationally, supported by strong business insurance growth, disciplined underwriting, rising investment income, and shareholder-friendly capital allocation.
Headquartered in Hartford, CT, the company is a leading multi-line insurer and investment provider in the United States. It offers a wide range of products, including investment solutions, group life and disability insurance, property and casualty (P&C) coverage, and mutual funds, with a market capitalization of approximately $37.3 billion.
Valuation of HIG
Its forward P/E ratio of 9.97 is lower than the industry average of 26.13, indicating a relatively attractive valuation. Supported by solid earnings prospects and consistent operating performance, HIG currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), along with a Value Score of A.
Estimates for HIG Stock
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for The Hartford is pegged at $13.14 per share for 2026 and at $14.39 per share for 2027. The top-line estimate for 2026 is pegged at $20.96 billion, representing a 4.9% increase from the prior-year level. Over the past 30 days, earnings estimates have seen two upward revisions against nine downward revisions. HIG beat earnings estimates in three of the past four quarters and missed once, with an average surprise of 16.47%.
The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. Quote
HIG’s Business Tailwinds
HIG has streamlined its business by exiting legacy run-off and non-core operations, allowing management to focus heavily on profitable commercial lines. This strategy is paying dividends in underwriting discipline and capital efficiency. The strength of the core business is highly visible in Business Insurance, where written premiums grew 6% year over year in the first quarter of 2026. While the segment's total combined ratio was 94.8%, its underlying combined ratio remained excellent at 89.2%.
The Hartford is investing heavily in AI, cloud infrastructure, and advanced analytics to improve underwriting accuracy, claims processing, and customer experience. AI-powered underwriting tools and real-time data insights are helping improve pricing consistency and risk selection. These operational improvements are translating into stronger profitability, with The Hartford generating a trailing 12-month ROE of 22.5%, significantly above the industry average of 7.4%.
The Hartford’s conservative yet diversified investment portfolio continues to provide stable income and downside protection. As of March 31, 2026, 95% of the fixed maturities portfolio was investment grade, supporting capital preservation and recurring income. At the same time, mortgage loans and alternative investments boosted returns. This balanced allocation helped net investment income rise 12.7% year over year to $739 million in the first quarter of 2026.
HIG maintains a highly shareholder-friendly capital allocation strategy through aggressive buybacks and growing dividends. It repurchased $1.6 billion worth of shares in 2025 and another $450 million during the first quarter of 2026, while retaining $1.1 billion under its current authorization. The Hartford also raised its quarterly dividend by 15% in late 2025. Its dividend yield of 1.8% remains well above the industry average of 0.3%, supported by strong operating cash flow of more than $1 billion during the first quarter of 2026.
Risks to Monitor
HIG remains exposed to elevated catastrophe risk from severe storms, wildfires, and other climate-related events. Catastrophe losses totaled $768 million in 2024, $748 million in 2025, and $230 million in the first quarter of 2026, continuing to pressure earnings visibility. Leverage remains above industry norms.
Long-term debt was $4.4 billion as of March 31, 2026, versus cash of $166 million, while its long-term debt-to-equity ratio of 23.6% exceeded the industry average of 1.2%, limiting financial flexibility during periods of market stress.
Key Picks
Some better-ranked stocks in the broader Finance space are Mercury General Corporation (MCY - Free Report) , The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. (THG - Free Report) , and United Fire Group, Inc. (UFCS - Free Report) , each sporting a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Mercury General’s 2026 earnings is pegged at $11.75 per share, indicating 48.7% year-over-year growth. MCY has witnessed one upward revision in the past 30 days, with no movement in the opposite direction. The consensus estimate for 2026 revenues is pinned at $6.4 billion, implying 8.5% year-over-year growth.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Hanover Insurance’s 2026 earnings is pegged at $18.46 per share, which has witnessed four upward revisions in the past 30 days, with no movement in the opposite direction. THG beat earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 28.5%. The consensus estimate for 2026 revenues is pinned at $6.95 billion, implying 4.7% year-over-year growth.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for United Fire’s 2026 earnings is pegged at $4.88 per share, indicating 6.1% year-over-year growth. UFCS beat earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 68.8%. The consensus estimate for 2026 revenues is pinned at $1.53 billion, implying 10.5% year-over-year growth.