A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Domino's Pizza (DPZ Quick QuoteDPZ - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 8.8% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

But investors have to be wondering, will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Domino's Pizza due for a breakout? Well, first let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent catalysts for Domino's Pizza Inc before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.

Domino's Q1 Earnings & Revenues Miss Estimates

Domino's reported first-quarter fiscal 2026 results, with earnings missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate and decreasing on a year-over-year basis. However, total revenues also missed the same but increased from the prior year's reported figure.

Domino’s first-quarter results were underpinned by higher supply chain revenues and increased global franchise royalties and advertising revenues. Management noted that supply chain gains reflected higher food basket pricing and increased order volumes, partially offset by an unfavorable product mix.

However, underlying trends were mixed. International same-store sales declined, indicating softness in key overseas markets. Additionally, revenue growth was partly price-driven rather than purely volume-led, while product mix remained a drag. On the profitability side, margins were pressured by unfavorable swings in investment-related gains and losses, and free cash flow also decreased, reflecting working capital headwinds.

DPZ's Q1 Earnings & Revenue Discussion

In the quarter under discussion, Domino's reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $4.13, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.29 by 3.7%. The bottom line declined 4.6% from $4.33 in the year-ago quarter.

Quarterly revenues were $1.15 billion, up 3.5% year over year, but fell short of the $1.17 billion consensus estimate by 1.4%. Results reflected higher supply chain and franchise-related revenues, while international demand trends remained choppy.

Domino’s Traffic Metrics Show Mixed Geographic Momentum

On the demand side, global retail sales (excluding foreign currency impact) increased 3.4% year over year, with U.S. retail sales up 2.8% and international retail sales (excluding foreign currency impact) up 4%. These retail sales are a key systemwide gauge because royalties and certain fees are tied to franchisee sales rather than being recorded as company revenues.

Same-store sales trends were uneven. U.S. same-store sales (including company-owned and franchise stores) increased 0.9%, supported by higher average ticket and higher customer transaction counts.

At domestic company-owned stores, Domino’s comps increased 1.5% compared with the 2.9% decline reported a year ago.

Domestic franchise store comps rose 0.8% compared with a 0.4% decrease reported in the prior-year quarter.

While international same-store sales (excluding foreign currency impact) declined 0.4%, we estimated the metric to increase 1.9% year over year. Store expansion remained a notable contributor, as the system delivered global net store growth of 180 in the quarter, including 19 net openings in the United States and 161 internationally.

DPZ’s Operating Profit Improves Despite Store Cost Pressure

In the fiscal first quarter, profitability within segments was mixed. Domino’s gross margin expanded 60 basis points (bps) year over year to 40.4%. Supply chain gross margin expanded 60 basis points to 12.2%, aided by procurement productivity, partially offset by a higher cost of the company’s food basket.

Income from operations increased 9.6% to $230.4 million. Excluding the $3.6 million positive impact of foreign currency exchange rates on international franchise royalty revenues, operating income still rose 7.9%, reflecting operating leverage and a favorable mix toward franchise-related revenues, which carry no cost of sales.

DPZ’s Cash Flow and Capital Returns Stay Shareholder-Focused

DPZ ended the quarter with $232.9 million in cash and cash equivalents, compared with $125.7 million as of Dec. 28, 2025. Long-term debt (less current portion) at the end of the fiscal first quarter totaled $4.88 billion compared with $4.81 billion reported in the previous quarter, and the leverage ratio improved to 4.3x from 4.9x a year ago. Inventory amounted to $69.2 million compared with $79.2 million as of Dec. 28, 2025.

Shareholder returns remained active: the company repurchased 188,304 shares for $75.1 million during the quarter, and on April 21, 2026, the board authorized an additional $1 billion share repurchase program, bringing total authorization for future repurchases to $1.29 billion. Management also declared a $1.99 per share quarterly dividend payable June 30, 2026.

Net cash provided by operating activities was $162 million versus $179.1 million in the prior-year quarter. Capital expenditures were $15 million, resulting in free cash flow of $147 million, down from $164.4 million a year ago.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates revision.

VGM Scores

Currently, Domino's Pizza has a nice Growth Score of B, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with a C. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a score of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for value investors.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. It's no surprise Domino's Pizza has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.