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Why Is Unum (UNM) Up 2.6% Since Last Earnings Report?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Unum (UNM - Free Report) . Shares have added about 2.6% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

But investors have to be wondering, will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Unum due for a pullback? Well, first let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent catalysts for Unum Group before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.

Unum Group Q1 Earnings Miss Estimates, Revenues Rise Y/Y

Unum Group’s first-quarter 2026 operating net income of $2.14 per share missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.4%. The bottom line decreased 9.7% year over year. The quarterly results were adversely impacted by higher benefit costs and weaker international profitability. However, premium growth and strong sales momentum partly offset the decline.

Operational Update         

Total operating revenues of Unum Group were $3.4 billion, up 8.5% year over year. The top line surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 14.4%.
Premium increased 3.4% from the prior-year quarter to $2.8 billion, which is higher than our estimate of $2.5 billion. The Zacks Consensus Estimate was pegged at $2.7 billion. Total benefits and expenses increased 7.2% year over year to $3.1 billion, largely attributable to higher policy benefits, commissions and other expenses. The figure was higher than our estimate of $2.5 billion.

Quarterly Segment Update

Unum U.S.: Premium income was $1.8 billion, up 3.3% year over year.
Adjusted operating income increased 2.7% year over year to $338 million. It excludes the amortization of the deferred gain on reinsurance of $4.4 million and the impact of non-contemporaneous reinsurance of $0.6 million. The Zacks Consensus Estimate was pegged at $328 million, while our estimate was $341 million.

The group disability line of business reported a 10.6% decrease in adjusted operating income while the group life and accidental death and dismemberment line of business reported a 66.3% increase. The supplemental and voluntary line of business reported a decrease of 17.4%.

Unum International: Premium income of $286.7 million increased 16.2% year over year.  Adjusted operating income was $30.9 million, down 20.2% year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate was pegged at $41 million, while our estimate was $47.5 million.

The Unum U.K. line of business premium income totaled £172.1 million, up 6.6% from the year-ago quarter, primarily due to in-force block growth, sales, and favorable persistency. Adjusted operating income, in local currency, was £20.4million was down 30.8% year over year.

The benefit ratio, excluding the reserve assumption updates, was 72.9%, which deteriorated 580 basis points (bps), primarily due to higher average claim size and increased claim incidence in the group long-term disability business. Sales increased 15% to £24.5 million. Persistency increased in the supplemental product line, but decreased in the group long-term disability and the group life product line.

Colonial Life: Premium income increased 3.4% from the prior-year figure to $472.2 million, driven by stable overall persistency and prior period sales. Sales increased 0.9% from the year-ago figure to $106.3 million. Adjusted operating income increased 10.5% from the prior-year period to $127.8 million. Our estimate was $115.9 million, while the Zacks Consensus Estimate was pegged at $120.8 million. Persistency was 78.1% for the first three months of 2026, remained same year over year. The benefit ratio, excluding the reserve assumption updates, improved 170 bps year over year to 46.7%.

Closed Block: Premium income decreased 11.1% to $194.4 million. Adjusted operating loss was $145.3 million compared to income of $8 million a year ago, primarily due to group policy terminations, higher claim incidence in long-term care, and lower net investment income. The Zacks Consensus Estimate was pegged at $13.8 million.

Corporate: The segment incurred an adjusted operating loss of $43.6 million, wider than the year-ago quarter’s loss of $41.1 million, primarily due to decreased net investment income. Our estimate for loss was $49 million, while the Zacks Consensus Estimate was pegged at a loss of $45.2 million.

Capital Management

As of March. 31, 2026, the weighted average risk-based capital ratio for Unum Group’s traditional U.S. insurance companies was approximately 460%.
Unum Group exited the first quarter with holding company liquidity worth $1.7 billion. Book value per share grew 6.2% year over year to $67.76 as of March 31, 2026. UNM bought back shares worth $402.4 million

2026 Guidance

UNM expects that after-tax adjusted operating income per share will increase to 22.2% from 21.2% in the year-ago period. Management expects 2026 EPS of $8.60-$8.90, implying 8-12% growth.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates review have trended downward during the past month.

VGM Scores

Currently, Unum has a poor Growth Score of F, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with a C. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a score of B on the value side, putting it in the top 40% for value investors.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Unum has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

Unum is part of the Zacks Insurance - Accident and Health industry. Over the past month, Amerisafe (AMSF - Free Report) , a stock from the same industry, has gained 0.6%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended March 2026 more than a month ago.

Amerisafe reported revenues of $81.75 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +7.9%. EPS of $0.50 for the same period compares with $0.60 a year ago.

Amerisafe is expected to post earnings of $0.53 per share for the current quarter, representing no change from the year-ago quarter. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate remained unchanged.

Amerisafe has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of F.

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