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Northern Oil and Gas (NOG) Down 23.6% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?
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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Northern Oil and Gas (NOG - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 23.6% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
But investors have to be wondering, will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Northern Oil and Gas due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.
Northern Oil Q1 Earnings & Revenues Beat Estimates, Down Y/Y
Northern Oil and Gas reported first-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings per share of 74 cents, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 71 cents. The outperformance reflects strong production. However, the bottom line declined from the year-ago adjusted profit of $1.33 due to weaker natural gas prices and a 77% increase in operating expenses.
The Minnetonka, MN-based oil and gas exploration and production company reported oil and gas sales of $539.9 million, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $511 million, supported by higher crude oil realizations. However, the top line decreased from the year-ago figure of $576.9 million. The year-over-year decline was mainly due to lower oil and gas sales during this quarter.
In February, NOG closed the joint Ohio Utica acquisition of upstream and midstream assets with an adjusted ownership split of 40% for $464.6 million, including the previously paid $58.8 million deposit.
In March, NOG completed a common stock offering of 8.3 million shares of common stock, generating net proceeds of $227.9 million. Funds raised in the offering were applied to the outstanding borrowings on the company’s revolving credit facility.
Q1 Production Details
The first-quarter production increased 10% year over year to 148,303 barrels of oil equivalent per day (Boe/d). Additionally, the figure beat our estimate of 141,049 Boe/d.
While oil volume totaled 73,567 Bod (a 6% decrease year over year), natural gas (and natural gas liquids) amounted to 448,444 thousand cubic feet per day (a 33% increase). Our model estimate for oil volume and natural gas production was pegged at 70,000 Bod and 411,400 thousand cubic feet per day, respectively.
The average sales price for crude was $66.32 per barrel, indicating a 2% increase from the prior-year quarter’s level of $64.92. Moreover, the figure beat our expectation of $52.51 per barrel.
The average realized natural gas price was $2.50 per thousand cubic feet compared with $3.86 in the year-earlier period. Our model estimate for the same was pinned at $4.58 per thousand cubic feet.
Costs & Expenses
Total operating expenses in the quarter rose to $660 million from $372.8 million in the year-ago period. This was mainly on account of a surge in production expenses, general and administrative expenses, impairment of oil and gas assets, and other expenses. The metric came above our estimate of $636.2 million.
Capital Expenditures
The company reported capital expenditures of $270.1 million for the first quarter, excluding non-budgeted acquisitions and other unplanned items. Of this total, $226.5 million was dedicated to drilling and completion activities on organic assets, while $43.6 million was allocated to Ground Game efforts, including associated development costs.
During the first quarter, NOG placed 17.1 net wells into production.
Financial Position
The company’s free cash flow for the quarter totaled $30.4 million.
As of March 31, 2026, Northern Oil had $37 million in cash and cash equivalents. The company had a long-term debt of $2.6 billion, with a debt-to-capitalization of 58.8%.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed a upward trend in estimates revision.
The consensus estimate has shifted 10.35% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
Currently, Northern Oil and Gas has a average Growth Score of C, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with an A. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a score of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for value investors.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Interestingly, Northern Oil and Gas has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
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Northern Oil and Gas (NOG) Down 23.6% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?
It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Northern Oil and Gas (NOG - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 23.6% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
But investors have to be wondering, will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Northern Oil and Gas due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.
Northern Oil Q1 Earnings & Revenues Beat Estimates, Down Y/Y
Northern Oil and Gas reported first-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings per share of 74 cents, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 71 cents. The outperformance reflects strong production. However, the bottom line declined from the year-ago adjusted profit of $1.33 due to weaker natural gas prices and a 77% increase in operating expenses.
The Minnetonka, MN-based oil and gas exploration and production company reported oil and gas sales of $539.9 million, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $511 million, supported by higher crude oil realizations. However, the top line decreased from the year-ago figure of $576.9 million. The year-over-year decline was mainly due to lower oil and gas sales during this quarter.
In February, NOG closed the joint Ohio Utica acquisition of upstream and midstream assets with an adjusted ownership split of 40% for $464.6 million, including the previously paid $58.8 million deposit.
In March, NOG completed a common stock offering of 8.3 million shares of common stock, generating net proceeds of $227.9 million. Funds raised in the offering were applied to the outstanding borrowings on the company’s revolving credit facility.
Q1 Production Details
The first-quarter production increased 10% year over year to 148,303 barrels of oil equivalent per day (Boe/d). Additionally, the figure beat our estimate of 141,049 Boe/d.
While oil volume totaled 73,567 Bod (a 6% decrease year over year), natural gas (and natural gas liquids) amounted to 448,444 thousand cubic feet per day (a 33% increase). Our model estimate for oil volume and natural gas production was pegged at 70,000 Bod and 411,400 thousand cubic feet per day, respectively.
The average sales price for crude was $66.32 per barrel, indicating a 2% increase from the prior-year quarter’s level of $64.92. Moreover, the figure beat our expectation of $52.51 per barrel.
The average realized natural gas price was $2.50 per thousand cubic feet compared with $3.86 in the year-earlier period. Our model estimate for the same was pinned at $4.58 per thousand cubic feet.
Costs & Expenses
Total operating expenses in the quarter rose to $660 million from $372.8 million in the year-ago period. This was mainly on account of a surge in production expenses, general and administrative expenses, impairment of oil and gas assets, and other expenses. The metric came above our estimate of $636.2 million.
Capital Expenditures
The company reported capital expenditures of $270.1 million for the first quarter, excluding non-budgeted acquisitions and other unplanned items. Of this total, $226.5 million was dedicated to drilling and completion activities on organic assets, while $43.6 million was allocated to Ground Game efforts, including associated development costs.
During the first quarter, NOG placed 17.1 net wells into production.
Financial Position
The company’s free cash flow for the quarter totaled $30.4 million.
As of March 31, 2026, Northern Oil had $37 million in cash and cash equivalents. The company had a long-term debt of $2.6 billion, with a debt-to-capitalization of 58.8%.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed a upward trend in estimates revision.
The consensus estimate has shifted 10.35% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
Currently, Northern Oil and Gas has a average Growth Score of C, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with an A. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a score of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for value investors.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Interestingly, Northern Oil and Gas has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.