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Why Is Hilton Worldwide (HLT) Up 7.1% Since Last Earnings Report?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT - Free Report) . Shares have added about 7.1% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

But investors have to be wondering, will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Hilton Worldwide due for a pullback? Well, first let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent drivers for Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.

Hilton Q1 Earnings Beat Estimates, Revenues Rise Y/Y

Hilton reported first-quarter 2026 results, wherein earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate while revenues missed the same. The top and bottom lines increased on a year-over-year basis. 

Hilton’s first-quarter 2026 results were supported by steady demand trends, year-over-year RevPAR growth and continued expansion of its global footprint. The company added new hotels during the quarter and delivered solid net unit growth while maintaining a robust development pipeline that provides strong long-term visibility. Continued expansion of its brand portfolio, along with the launch of Select by Hilton, also contributed positively to overall performance.

Hilton’s Q1 Results in Detail

Hilton reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.01, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.96 by 2.6%. In the year-ago quarter, it reported an adjusted EPS of $1.72.

Total revenues of $2.94 billion missed the consensus mark of $2.98 billion by 1.3% and increased 9.0% on a year-over-year basis.

The quarter’s franchise and licensing fees improved year over year to $696 million from $625 million reported in the prior-year quarter. Our estimate for the metric was $630.6 million.

Base and other management fees increased year over year to $95 million from $88 million reported in the prior-year quarter. Incentive management fees were up 5.6% year over year to $76 million. Our model projected base and other management and incentive management fees to be $91.1 million and $93.9 million, respectively.

Ownership revenues were $249 million compared with the year-ago quarter’s level of $234 million. We expected the metric to be $231.5 million.

HLT’s RevPAR & Adjusted EBITDA

In the first quarter, the system-wide comparable RevPAR increased 3.6% year over year (on a currency-neutral basis). 

Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) were $901 million, up 13.3% year over year from $795 million reported in the prior-year quarter. Our estimate for adjusted EBITDA was $887.2 million.

Hilton’s Balance Sheet & Capital Return

As of March 31, 2026, Hilton’s total cash and cash equivalents were $619 million compared with $970 million as of Dec. 31, 2025. Hilton carried $12.5 billion in total debt, with a weighted average interest rate of about 5%. Excluding finance lease obligations, total debt stood at $12.1 billion, also at a 5.01% average rate, with no significant maturities before April 2027. The company noted it has sufficient liquidity and access to capital markets to comfortably meet upcoming debt obligations.

In first-quarter 2026, HLT repurchased 2.7 million of its common stock, bringing total capital return, including dividends, to $860 million for the quarter and $1.08 billion year to date through April.

Hilton’s Unit Growth and Brand Expansion

In the first quarter of 2026, Hilton added 131 hotels totaling 16,300 rooms and achieved net room growth of about 10,900 rooms. During the quarter, the company continued to expand its global presence through notable openings and signings across key markets.

In the quarter, Hilton grew its development pipeline by 26,200 rooms. As of March 31, 2026, the pipeline included 3,768 hotels with about 527,000 rooms across 129 countries and territories. Nearly half of these rooms are already under construction and more than half are located outside the United States, supporting long-term growth visibility. 

During the quarter, Hilton announced the launch of a new brand, Select by Hilton, which integrates independent lifestyle brands into the system, expanding its presence in the segment.

HLT’s Q2 Outlook

For the second quarter of 2026, management forecasts system-wide comparable RevPAR (on a currency-neutral basis) to increase in the range of 2% to 3% on a year-over-year basis.

Hilton anticipates net income to be in the range of $491-$505 million. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $1,015 million and $1,035 million. It predicts adjusted EPS between $2.18 and $2.24.

HLT Raises 2026 Outlook

Hilton raised its full-year 2026 outlook, reflecting improving demand trends and stronger-than-expected performance. The company now expects system-wide comparable RevPAR (on a currency-neutral basis) growth in the range of 2% to 3%. This compares favorably with its previous expectation of 1% to 2% growth, indicating a notable upward revision driven by sustained momentum across key markets.

Net income is projected to be in the range of $1.91-$1.94 billion compared with the earlier expectation of $1.98-$2.01 billion. Adjusted EBITDA is expected between $4.02 billion and $4.06 billion compared with the prior range of $4.00 billion to $4.04 billion. Full-year adjusted EPS is projected to be in the range of $8.79-$8.91 compared with the earlier expectation of $8.65-$8.77. Capital return is anticipated to be approximately $3.5 billion.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates review.

The consensus estimate has shifted -5.64% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Hilton Worldwide has a nice Growth Score of B, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a D. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a score of F on the value side, putting it in the lowest quintile for value investors.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Interestingly, Hilton Worldwide has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

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