It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Hanover Insurance Group (THG Quick QuoteTHG - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 0.2% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

But investors have to be wondering, will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Hanover Insurance due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Hanover Insurance Q1 Earnings Top Estimates on Lower Cat Losses

The Hanover Insurance  posted first-quarter 2026 operating income of $5.25 per share, which rose 35.7% year over year and beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.14 by 26.8%.

Total revenues rose 6.1% year over year to $1.7 billion but missed the consensus mark of $1.72 billion by 1.2%. Results reflected firm pricing and improved underlying loss trends, helping drive a record operating return on equity of 20.3%.

THG Delivers Better Combined Ratio Despite Cat Losses

Underwriting profitability strengthened in the quarter, with the consolidated combined ratio improving to 91.7% from 94.1% a year ago.
Catastrophe losses were $98.9 million, adding 6.3 points to the combined ratio.

Excluding catastrophes, the combined ratio improved to 85.4%, supported by a 2.3-point year-over-year decline in the loss and loss adjustment expense ratio. The current accident year combined ratio, excluding catastrophes, was 87.0%, pointing to better core underwriting performance.

Net premiums written increased to $1,559.7 million from $1,510.8 million, aided by renewal pricing and disciplined growth across businesses.

The Hanover’s Core Commercial Segment Benefits From Rate Action

Core Commercial generated net premiums written of $630.4 million, up 4.3% from the prior-year quarter. Renewal price increases were 8.6%, while rate increases were 7.5%, reflecting continued emphasis on adequate pricing and targeted appetite across small commercial and middle-market accounts.

Profitability improved meaningfully as underwriting actions flowed through. The segment’s combined ratio was 96.6% versus 103.4% a year ago, with the total loss and LAE ratio improving to 63.9% from 70.0%. Prior-year favorable development, excluding catastrophes, was 0.3 points, and GAAP underwriting profit swung to $17.8 million from a loss of $20.0 million in the prior-year period.

THG Specialty Segment Posts Strong Underwriting Profit

Specialty net premiums written increased 2.3% year over year to $366.7 million. Renewal price increases were 4.6% and rate increases were 2.4%, indicating steady momentum while maintaining underwriting discipline across the segment’s marine, professional, and other specialty offerings.

The segment produced a combined ratio of 84.2%, an improvement from 87.7% in the prior-year quarter. A lower total loss and loss adjustment expense ratio of 47.8% (down from 50.7%) helped lift GAAP underwriting profit to $56.1 million from $41.2 million, while the expense ratio was 36.4% compared with 37.0% a year earlier.

The Hanover’s Personal Lines Segment Mixed as Pricing Stays Firm

Personal Lines net premiums written rose 2.7% year over year to $562.6 million. Renewal price increases were 8.4% and rate increases were 4.3%, underscoring continued pricing traction as the company works to improve profitability in auto and homeowners lines.

Even with that pricing support, results were more mixed. The segment’s combined ratio was 91.5% compared with 89.7% a year earlier, as catastrophe losses remained elevated for the book, with a current-year catastrophe loss ratio of 12.4% versus 5.8% in the prior-year quarter. The total loss and LAE ratio was 65.8% compared with 64.4% a year ago, and GAAP underwriting profit totaled $52.3 million, down from $61.7 million.

THG Balance Sheet Advances With Book Value Increase

Hanover ended the quarter with book value per share of $101.86, up 1% from Dec. 31, 2025. 

The investment portfolio expanded, with total investments rising 4% to $10.80 billion as of March 31, 2026, including fixed maturities of $9.98 billion. The company also reduced leverage, with short-term debt falling to $50.1 million from $375.0 million and long-term debt declining to $793.7 million from $843.3 million.

As of March 31, 2026, the operating insurance company's statutory capital and surplus were $3.54 billion, up from $3.34 billion as of Dec. 31, 2025.

Capital Deployment

From the start of the year till April 28, 2026, THG repurchased about 0.6 million shares for $101 million, of which about 0.5 million were repurchased during the first quarter of 2026 for $87 million. The company has about $72 million of remaining capacity under its existing share repurchase program.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, fresh estimates have trended upward during the past month.

The consensus estimate has shifted 6.99% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Hanover Insurance has a average Growth Score of C, a score with the same score on the momentum front. However, the stock has a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. It comes with little surprise Hanover Insurance has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.