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Murphy USA (MUSA) Down 13% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?
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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Murphy USA (MUSA - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 13% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Murphy USA due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
MUSA Q1 Earnings Beat Estimates on Strong Fuel Contribution
Motor fuel retailer Murphy USA posted first-quarter 2026 earnings of $7.28 per diluted share, up 176.8% from $2.63 a year ago and ahead of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.37 by 35.6%. Total operating revenues rose 6.5% year over year to $4.8 billion and topped the consensus mark of $4.7 billion by 3.9%.
Results reflected a more favorable refined-products environment and solid execution, with total fuel contribution of 35 cents per gallon and total retail fuel volumes up 2.1% year over year.
Fuel Results Benefit From Pricing Dynamics
Total fuel contribution climbed 40.6% year over year to $403.9 million, supported by both higher margins and higher volumes. Retail fuel contribution increased 9.5% to $293 million as retail fuel margin expanded to 25.4 cents per gallon from 23.7 cents a year earlier.
Fuel supply, including RINs, also swung meaningfully positive, contributing 9.6 cents per gallon versus 1.7 cents per gallon in the year-ago quarter. Management attributed the fuel supply lift largely to market-driven pricing effects and the timing of inventory movements during the period.
Merchandise Mix Keeps Increasing Contribution
Merchandise contribution increased 7.3% to $210.2 million, driven by higher sales volume and improved unit margins. Merchandise sales advanced 5% year over year to $1 billion, while average unit margin improved to 20% from 19.6%.
On a same-store basis, total merchandise contribution rose 4.9%. Nicotine remained the standout, with nicotine contribution on a same-store basis increasing to $20.2 thousand per store month from $18.5 thousand, while non-nicotine contribution was $19.7 thousand versus $19.9 thousand a year ago.
Management emphasized that customer behavior shifts tend to build as higher pump prices persist. In April, the company indicated volumes were running roughly flat to the prior year on an average per-store month basis, alongside expectations for all-in fuel margins between 35 cents and 40 cents per gallon for the month.
Loyalty metrics were a notable signal of traffic opportunity. Murphy Drive Rewards added about 600,000 members in a month, the highest monthly total since 2022, and management also cited year-over-year increases of 8.5% in active members and about 12% in total transactions, pointing to more frequent visits even as baskets may moderate.
Profitability gains were not limited to fuel and merchandise. Adjusted EBITDA rose to $277.9 million from $157.4 million in the prior-year quarter, reflecting a higher contribution against relatively steady operating cost intensity.
Below the operating line, interest expense increased to $29 million from $25.4 million, while the effective tax rate rose to about 22.6% from 14.1% a year ago. The higher rate reflected lower excess tax benefits tied to share-based compensation, partially offset by federal energy tax credits.
Balance Sheet
Murphy USA ended the quarter with $118.6 million of cash and cash equivalents and $2.1 billion of long-term debt, with a debt-to-capitalization of 76.4%. Operating cash flow increased to $320 million from $128.5 million a year ago, aided by working capital dynamics.
Capital returns remained active. During the quarter, the company repurchased about 169,000 shares for $70.9 million at an average price of $419.87 per share and paid a quarterly dividend of 63 cents per share. On the growth front, Murphy USA opened six new-to-industry stores and closed three QuickChek sites, ending March with 1,803 stores. It had 28 total sites under construction at quarter-end (including raze-and-rebuild projects) and reiterated that it is on pace to open 45 to 55 new stores in 2026. As of March 31, $221.4 million remained under the 2023 repurchase authorization, with an additional $2 billion authorization set to become effective once that program is completed.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
It turns out, fresh estimates have trended upward during the past month.
The consensus estimate has shifted 16.83% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
At this time, Murphy USA has a great Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with a B. Following the exact same course, the stock has a score of B on the value side, putting it in the top 40% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. It comes with little surprise Murphy USA has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.
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Murphy USA (MUSA) Down 13% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?
A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Murphy USA (MUSA - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 13% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Murphy USA due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
MUSA Q1 Earnings Beat Estimates on Strong Fuel Contribution
Motor fuel retailer Murphy USA posted first-quarter 2026 earnings of $7.28 per diluted share, up 176.8% from $2.63 a year ago and ahead of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.37 by 35.6%. Total operating revenues rose 6.5% year over year to $4.8 billion and topped the consensus mark of $4.7 billion by 3.9%.
Results reflected a more favorable refined-products environment and solid execution, with total fuel contribution of 35 cents per gallon and total retail fuel volumes up 2.1% year over year.
Fuel Results Benefit From Pricing Dynamics
Total fuel contribution climbed 40.6% year over year to $403.9 million, supported by both higher margins and higher volumes. Retail fuel contribution increased 9.5% to $293 million as retail fuel margin expanded to 25.4 cents per gallon from 23.7 cents a year earlier.
Fuel supply, including RINs, also swung meaningfully positive, contributing 9.6 cents per gallon versus 1.7 cents per gallon in the year-ago quarter. Management attributed the fuel supply lift largely to market-driven pricing effects and the timing of inventory movements during the period.
Merchandise Mix Keeps Increasing Contribution
Merchandise contribution increased 7.3% to $210.2 million, driven by higher sales volume and improved unit margins. Merchandise sales advanced 5% year over year to $1 billion, while average unit margin improved to 20% from 19.6%.
On a same-store basis, total merchandise contribution rose 4.9%. Nicotine remained the standout, with nicotine contribution on a same-store basis increasing to $20.2 thousand per store month from $18.5 thousand, while non-nicotine contribution was $19.7 thousand versus $19.9 thousand a year ago.
Management emphasized that customer behavior shifts tend to build as higher pump prices persist. In April, the company indicated volumes were running roughly flat to the prior year on an average per-store month basis, alongside expectations for all-in fuel margins between 35 cents and 40 cents per gallon for the month.
Loyalty metrics were a notable signal of traffic opportunity. Murphy Drive Rewards added about 600,000 members in a month, the highest monthly total since 2022, and management also cited year-over-year increases of 8.5% in active members and about 12% in total transactions, pointing to more frequent visits even as baskets may moderate.
Profitability gains were not limited to fuel and merchandise. Adjusted EBITDA rose to $277.9 million from $157.4 million in the prior-year quarter, reflecting a higher contribution against relatively steady operating cost intensity.
Below the operating line, interest expense increased to $29 million from $25.4 million, while the effective tax rate rose to about 22.6% from 14.1% a year ago. The higher rate reflected lower excess tax benefits tied to share-based compensation, partially offset by federal energy tax credits.
Balance Sheet
Murphy USA ended the quarter with $118.6 million of cash and cash equivalents and $2.1 billion of long-term debt, with a debt-to-capitalization of 76.4%. Operating cash flow increased to $320 million from $128.5 million a year ago, aided by working capital dynamics.
Capital returns remained active. During the quarter, the company repurchased about 169,000 shares for $70.9 million at an average price of $419.87 per share and paid a quarterly dividend of 63 cents per share. On the growth front, Murphy USA opened six new-to-industry stores and closed three QuickChek sites, ending March with 1,803 stores. It had 28 total sites under construction at quarter-end (including raze-and-rebuild projects) and reiterated that it is on pace to open 45 to 55 new stores in 2026. As of March 31, $221.4 million remained under the 2023 repurchase authorization, with an additional $2 billion authorization set to become effective once that program is completed.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
It turns out, fresh estimates have trended upward during the past month.
The consensus estimate has shifted 16.83% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
At this time, Murphy USA has a great Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with a B. Following the exact same course, the stock has a score of B on the value side, putting it in the top 40% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. It comes with little surprise Murphy USA has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.