We enter the final month of calendar Q2 at all-time highs on the major stock market indexes. Despite depleting oil reserves based on the now months-long closure of the Strait of Hormuz, inflation seeping towards double the previous Fed’s optimal +2% target and a growing sense that our entire economy is predicated on growth in the AI space.

Pre-market indexes had been in the green in all but the small-cap Russell 2000 index earlier this morning, keeping in stride with where we left off on Friday — at all-time highs for the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq. However, news coming out from Iran suggests the cease-fire between the two warring nations has failed to hold. Airstrikes targeting U.S. bases in the region join a continued surge from Israel into Lebanon as elements keeping a peace accord from being realized, at least as of now.

The cease fire with Iran apparently has failed to hold over the weekend. Oil prices are moving up this morning, as well, with now $92.50 per barrel (/bbl) on the American WTI benchmark, and $96/bbl on international Brent crude. WTI had gotten as high as $117/bbl back in the first week in April, after the war had moved past its first month. Brent had gotten up to $114/bbl in the first week of May.

Looking Ahead to a New Jobs Week

Following inflation reports from CPI, PPI and PCE in the past couple weeks, we now come to a new “Jobs Week,” which begins tomorrow with JOLTS numbers posting a month in arrears. On Wednesday we’ll see fresh ADP ((ADP Quick QuoteADP - Free Report) private-sector jobs for May, Weekly Jobless Claims on Thursday and the big Employment Situation report on Friday morning from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

JOLTS numbers have cooled below 7 million job openings in the previous two months reported, ADP last month notched its first triple-digit month of private-sector job gains since January of 2025, and Jobless Claims have stayed in an historically low range since early February this year. Non-farm Payrolls are expected to bring their third-straight positive month of jobs growth, which we haven’t seen since February through May of 2025.

We’ve seen wage growth cool somewhat, as well. Depending on how you view this, it can be seen as a positive — healthy labor tallies not adding (as much) to inflation — or negative: with prices rising in goods and services nearly everywhere, wages are no longer keeping up, leading to a “stagflationary” environment. We also see slimming Labor Force Participation and Average Workweek hours; these are other metrics we’ll be paying attention to in Friday’s report.

What to Expect from the Market Today

After the regular trading session opens today, S&P final Manufacturing data for May comes out, as will ISM Manufacturing. Both are expected to remain comfortably above the 50 threshold, which determines growth. (Services numbers for both of these indexes come out Wednesday morning.) Also, Construction Spending for April is expected to cool somewhat from the prior month but remain in positive territory.