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Is CF Stock a Screaming Buy After a 50% Rally in 6 Months?
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Key Takeaways
CF stock has climbed 49.7% in six months on strong nitrogen demand and higher prices.
CF expects a tight global nitrogen supply in 2026 amid geopolitical disruptions and strong demand.
CF returned $1.7 billion to shareholders in 2025 through buybacks and dividends.
CF Industries Holdings, Inc.’s (CF - Free Report) shares have shot up 49.7% over the past six months, outperforming the Zacks Fertilizers industry’s decline of 41.8% and the S&P 500’s rise of 10.5%. The upside has been driven by its forecast-topping earnings performance, buoyed by healthy nitrogen fertilizer demand in major markets and higher nitrogen prices.
CF’s peers, Nutrien Ltd. (NTR - Free Report) and The Mosaic Company (MOS - Free Report) , have gained 14% and declined 1.3%, respectively, over the same period.
CF’s 6-month Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The CF stock has been trading below its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) since May 20, 2026. It is currently trading above its 200-day SMA, suggesting a long-term uptrend. The 50-day SMA is also reading higher than the 200-day SMA, following a golden crossover on Feb. 26, 2025, indicating a bullish trend.
CF Stock Trades Below 50-Day SMA
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Let’s take a look at CF’s fundamentals to better analyze how to play the stock.
Healthy Nitrogen Demand, Higher Prices Aid CF Stock
CF Industries is capitalizing on the growing global demand for nitrogen fertilizers, driven by strong agricultural activity. Global nitrogen requirement is expected to remain strong in the near future due to recovering industrial demand and farmer economics.
High levels of corn-planted acres in the United States should drive the demand for nitrogen. Demand in North America is expected to be fueled by favorable farm economics. Demand for urea is likely to remain healthy in Brazil in 2026, driven by higher corn plantings. In India, demand is expected to be driven by low inventory levels, reduced domestic production and undelivered volumes due to the Iran war. The company expects India’s urea imports to rise year over year in 2026, potentially reaching 10-12 million metric tons.
CF, on its first-quarter call, said the global nitrogen market remains tight in 2026 due to strong demand, geopolitical disruptions and constrained natural gas availability. The Middle East conflict has further tightened the global nitrogen supply-demand balance.
Higher nitrogen prices have also contributed to a boost in CF Industries’ revenues. In the first quarter, net sales rose roughly 19% year over year on pricing strength. The average selling prices for the company’s core products increased from the prior year, driven by supply disruptions and strong global nitrogen demand. Looking ahead, CF should continue to benefit from favorable pricing trends.
CF’s Solid Cash Flow Supports Shareholder Returns
CF Industries continues to focus on enhancing shareholder value by utilizing its strong cash flow, thanks to strong operational performance, strategic execution and supportive nitrogen industry fundamentals. For full-year 2025, net cash from operating activities was $2.75 billion, while free cash flow was $1.79 billion, up roughly 21% and 24% year over year, respectively. The company’s cash and cash equivalents were roughly $2 billion at the end of the first quarter. Net cash provided by operating activities was $496 million for the quarter.
The company is efficiently converting adjusted EBITDA to free cash flow. Its full-year 2025 free cash flow to adjusted EBITDA conversion rate was 62%, outpacing sector averages. The same for the first quarter was 51%.
CF returned $1.7 billion to its shareholders in 2025. It repurchased 16.6 million shares for $1.34 billion during 2025. Since the commencement of its current $2 billion buyback program in October 2025, CF Industries has bought back 3.6 million shares for around $293 million.
CF offers a dividend yield of roughly 1.8% at the current stock price. It has a payout ratio of 19%. CF has a five-year annualized dividend growth rate of 12.9%. Backed by sound financial health, the company's dividend is perceived as safe and reliable.
Positive Analyst Sentiment for CF Stock
Earnings estimates for CF Industries have been rising over the past 60 days, reflecting analysts’ optimism. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 and 2027 has been revised upward over the same time frame.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
A Look At CF Stock’s Valuation
CF is currently trading at a forward price/earnings of 7.95X, a 34.4% discount relative to the industry average of 12.11X. It is trading at a discount to Nutrien and Mosaic. CF and Nutrien currently have a Value Score of A, while Mosaic carries a Value Score of B.
CF’s P/E F12M Vs. Industry, NTR & MOS
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Final Thoughts: Buy CF Stock
CF has rallied on strong nitrogen demand and higher pricing, driving earnings beats and upward estimate revisions. Robust cash flow supports aggressive buybacks and a healthy dividend, reinforcing shareholder returns. Favorable farm economics, strong import demand from Brazil and India and disciplined capital allocation underpin earnings visibility. In addition, CF’s cheap valuation offers an attractive entry point. With compelling nitrogen market fundamentals and price tailwinds firmly remaining in place, CF looks poised to deliver attractive returns to its investors, making this Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stock a prudent choice for those looking to capitalize on favorable market conditions.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Bigstock
Is CF Stock a Screaming Buy After a 50% Rally in 6 Months?
Key Takeaways
CF Industries Holdings, Inc.’s (CF - Free Report) shares have shot up 49.7% over the past six months, outperforming the Zacks Fertilizers industry’s decline of 41.8% and the S&P 500’s rise of 10.5%. The upside has been driven by its forecast-topping earnings performance, buoyed by healthy nitrogen fertilizer demand in major markets and higher nitrogen prices.
CF’s peers, Nutrien Ltd. (NTR - Free Report) and The Mosaic Company (MOS - Free Report) , have gained 14% and declined 1.3%, respectively, over the same period.
CF’s 6-month Price Performance
The CF stock has been trading below its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) since May 20, 2026. It is currently trading above its 200-day SMA, suggesting a long-term uptrend. The 50-day SMA is also reading higher than the 200-day SMA, following a golden crossover on Feb. 26, 2025, indicating a bullish trend.
CF Stock Trades Below 50-Day SMA
Let’s take a look at CF’s fundamentals to better analyze how to play the stock.
Healthy Nitrogen Demand, Higher Prices Aid CF Stock
CF Industries is capitalizing on the growing global demand for nitrogen fertilizers, driven by strong agricultural activity. Global nitrogen requirement is expected to remain strong in the near future due to recovering industrial demand and farmer economics.
High levels of corn-planted acres in the United States should drive the demand for nitrogen. Demand in North America is expected to be fueled by favorable farm economics. Demand for urea is likely to remain healthy in Brazil in 2026, driven by higher corn plantings. In India, demand is expected to be driven by low inventory levels, reduced domestic production and undelivered volumes due to the Iran war. The company expects India’s urea imports to rise year over year in 2026, potentially reaching 10-12 million metric tons.
CF, on its first-quarter call, said the global nitrogen market remains tight in 2026 due to strong demand, geopolitical disruptions and constrained natural gas availability. The Middle East conflict has further tightened the global nitrogen supply-demand balance.
Higher nitrogen prices have also contributed to a boost in CF Industries’ revenues. In the first quarter, net sales rose roughly 19% year over year on pricing strength. The average selling prices for the company’s core products increased from the prior year, driven by supply disruptions and strong global nitrogen demand. Looking ahead, CF should continue to benefit from favorable pricing trends.
CF’s Solid Cash Flow Supports Shareholder Returns
CF Industries continues to focus on enhancing shareholder value by utilizing its strong cash flow, thanks to strong operational performance, strategic execution and supportive nitrogen industry fundamentals. For full-year 2025, net cash from operating activities was $2.75 billion, while free cash flow was $1.79 billion, up roughly 21% and 24% year over year, respectively. The company’s cash and cash equivalents were roughly $2 billion at the end of the first quarter. Net cash provided by operating activities was $496 million for the quarter.
The company is efficiently converting adjusted EBITDA to free cash flow. Its full-year 2025 free cash flow to adjusted EBITDA conversion rate was 62%, outpacing sector averages. The same for the first quarter was 51%.
CF returned $1.7 billion to its shareholders in 2025. It repurchased 16.6 million shares for $1.34 billion during 2025. Since the commencement of its current $2 billion buyback program in October 2025, CF Industries has bought back 3.6 million shares for around $293 million.
CF offers a dividend yield of roughly 1.8% at the current stock price. It has a payout ratio of 19%. CF has a five-year annualized dividend growth rate of 12.9%. Backed by sound financial health, the company's dividend is perceived as safe and reliable.
Positive Analyst Sentiment for CF Stock
Earnings estimates for CF Industries have been rising over the past 60 days, reflecting analysts’ optimism. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 and 2027 has been revised upward over the same time frame.
A Look At CF Stock’s Valuation
CF is currently trading at a forward price/earnings of 7.95X, a 34.4% discount relative to the industry average of 12.11X. It is trading at a discount to Nutrien and Mosaic. CF and Nutrien currently have a Value Score of A, while Mosaic carries a Value Score of B.
CF’s P/E F12M Vs. Industry, NTR & MOS
Final Thoughts: Buy CF Stock
CF has rallied on strong nitrogen demand and higher pricing, driving earnings beats and upward estimate revisions. Robust cash flow supports aggressive buybacks and a healthy dividend, reinforcing shareholder returns. Favorable farm economics, strong import demand from Brazil and India and disciplined capital allocation underpin earnings visibility. In addition, CF’s cheap valuation offers an attractive entry point. With compelling nitrogen market fundamentals and price tailwinds firmly remaining in place, CF looks poised to deliver attractive returns to its investors, making this Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stock a prudent choice for those looking to capitalize on favorable market conditions.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.