It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Marriott Vacations Worldwide (VAC Quick QuoteVAC - Free Report) . Shares have added about 9.3% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

But investors have to be wondering, will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Marriott Vacations Worldwide due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

VAC Q1 Earnings Miss Estimates, Revenues Beat on Rental Growth

Marriott Vacations reported mixed results for the first quarter of 2026, with adjusted earnings missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate, while revenues surpassed the same. Meanwhile, earnings declined year over year, whereas revenues increased from the prior-year quarter.

Marriott Vacations benefited from higher rental and financing revenues, supported by resilient demand across its vacation ownership portfolio. Management also highlighted progress on cost actions, leadership changes and asset disposition initiatives aimed at improving profitability and cash flow generation. However, lower contract sales, higher marketing and sales costs, increased product costs and softer tour flow weighed on margins during the quarter.

Q1 Earnings & Revenue Performance

Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.24 missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.60 by 22.5%. In the year-ago quarter, it reported adjusted EPS of $1.66.

Quarterly revenues of $1.257 billion surpassed the consensus mark of $1.196 billion by 5.1% and increased 5% on a year-over-year basis.

Segment Highlights of VAC

Vacation Ownership: Revenues excluding cost reimbursements were flat year over year at $758 million. Consolidated contract sales totaled $411 million, down 2% year over year, as tours declined 3%, partially offset by a 1% increase in volume per guest (“VPG”). Segment adjusted EBITDA decreased 15% year over year to $188 million, while margin contracted 440 basis points (bps) year over year to 24.8%.

Management stated that the decline in tours reflected actions to prioritize higher profitability and cash flow in the Asia-Pacific region, along with lower tours from guests with FICO scores below 640. Excluding Asia-Pacific operations, tours declined 1% year over year.

Exchange & Third-Party Management: Revenues excluding cost reimbursements declined 6% year over year to $53 million, primarily due to lower revenue at Aqua-Aston. Segment adjusted EBITDA fell 14% year over year to $24 million, while margin contracted 410 bps year over year to 44.9%.

Total active Interval International members declined 2% year over year to 1.507 million, while average revenue per member fell 2% to $39.13.

Corporate and Other: General and administrative expenses increased $3 million year over year, primarily due to severance-related costs.

Marriott Vacations Margins & Profitability

Adjusted EBITDA declined 16% year over year to $161 million. The adjusted EBITDA margin contracted 370 bps year over year to 19.5%.

Development profit decreased 30% year over year to $55 million, while development profit margin contracted 610 bps to 16.1%. The decline reflected lower vacation ownership product revenue and higher marketing and sales expenses.

Financing profit declined 2% year over year to $51 million, while financing profit margin contracted 350 bps to 55.8%.

Rental profit decreased 22% year over year to $36 million, with rental profit margin narrowing 690 bps to 20.1%, reflecting higher rental expenses.

VAC Balance Sheet & Liquidity

The company ended the first quarter with $854 million in liquidity, including $268 million in cash and cash equivalents and $478 million available under its revolving corporate credit facility.

At quarter-end, Marriott Vacations had $3.3 billion of corporate debt and $2.3 billion of non-recourse securitized debt tied to vacation ownership notes receivable.

Inventory totaled $910 million at the end of the quarter, including $230 million classified within property and equipment.

During the quarter, the company closed the sale of the Westin Cancun hotel, generating proceeds of $50 million. Management also noted that additional non-core assets have been listed for sale and are expected to generate more than $125 million in gross proceeds during 2026.

VAC Updates 2026 Outlook

For 2026, Marriott Vacations now expects contract sales in the range of $1.815 billion to $1.885 billion compared with the previous guided range of $1.745 billion to $1.815 billion.

Adjusted EBITDA is projected between $755 million and $780 million. Adjusted net income attributable to common stockholders is expected between $255 million and $285 million.

Adjusted diluted earnings per share are anticipated in the range of $7.05 to $7.80, while adjusted free cash flow is expected between $375 million and $425 million.

Management expects second-quarter 2026 contract sales to increase 4% to 8% year over year, with adjusted EBITDA projected between $187 million and $202 million.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

Since the earnings release, investors have witnessed a upward trend in fresh estimates.

VGM Scores

At this time, Marriott Vacations Worldwide has a poor Growth Score of F, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with an A. However, the stock has a score of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for value investors.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Marriott Vacations Worldwide has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

Marriott Vacations Worldwide belongs to the Zacks Leisure and Recreation Services industry. Another stock from the same industry, Caesars Entertainment (CZR Quick QuoteCZR - Free Report) , has gained 5.1% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended March 2026.

Caesars Entertainment reported revenues of $2.87 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +2.7%. EPS of -$0.48 for the same period compares with -$0.54 a year ago.

Caesars Entertainment is expected to post earnings of $0.05 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +112.8%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -34%.

The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Caesars Entertainment. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of C.