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Why Is Suncor Energy (SU) Up 1.9% Since Last Earnings Report?
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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Suncor Energy (SU - Free Report) . Shares have added about 1.9% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Suncor Energy due for a pullback? Well, first let's take a quick look at the latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent drivers for Suncor Energy Inc. before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.
Suncor Energy Q1 Earnings Miss Estimates, Revenues Beat, Both Up Y/Y
Suncor Energy reported first-quarter 2026 adjusted operating earnings of $1.41 per share, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.45 by 3%. This underperformance can be attributed to a 16.5% increase in total expenses and higher commodity input costs during the quarter. However, the bottom line increased from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure of 91 cents due to stronger downstream margins, higher upstream price realizations and increased sales volumes.
Calgary-based integrated oil and gas company’s operating revenues of $10.7 billion beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $8.9 billion by 19.53%. The top line increased approximately 23.2% year over year, aided by record refined product sales, higher refinery production and stronger benchmark crack spreads.
Suncor delivered a strong operating quarter, with record first-quarter upstream production of 875,200 barrels per day (bbls/d), up from 853,200 bbls/d in the year-ago quarter. Refining throughput also reached a first-quarter record of 497,800 bbls/d, compared with 482,700 bbls/d a year earlier, while refined product sales rose to a quarterly record of 680,900 bbls/d from 604,900 bbls/d in the prior-year period.
Management highlighted that the quarter reflected continued momentum from 2025, supported by record first-quarter upstream output, strong refinery performance and expanded product sales through domestic retail growth and global export opportunities.
Segmental Performance
Upstream: Suncor delivered a strong operating quarter, with record first-quarter upstream production of 875,200 bbls/d, up from 853,200 bbls/d in the year-ago quarter. Moreover, the figure beat the consensus estimate of 868,000 bbls/d.
Total Oil Sands production was 798,800 bbls/d, up from 790,900 bbls/d in the year-ago quarter. Total Oil Sands bitumen production was 933,900 bbls/d, broadly comparable with 937,300 bbls/d in the prior-year period, and featured record quarterly production at Fort Hills. However, Syncrude maintenance and a third-party natural gas input pipeline curtailment weighed on production.
Net synthetic crude oil and diesel production declined to 519,300 bbls/d from 536,600 bbls/d a year earlier due to lower Syncrude upgrader availability. Non-upgraded bitumen production increased to 279,500 bbls/d from 254,300 bbls/d, primarily due to decreased upgrader availability.
Oil Sands adjusted operating earnings were C$1.57 billion, down from C$1.62 billion in the prior-year quarter, as higher operating expenses, share-based compensation, commodity input costs and asset advancement expenses more than offset improved price realizations and sales volumes.
Exploration and Production (E&P) production rose to 76,400 bbls/d from 62,300 bbls/d in the year-ago period, driven by strong production across assets. Adjusted operating earnings in the segment increased to C$382 million from C$158 million, primarily due to higher sales volumes and stronger price realizations.
Downstream: The segment was the key driver of the quarter’s strength. Adjusted operating earnings surged to C$1.68 billion from C$667 million in the prior-year quarter, primarily due to a significant FIFO inventory valuation gain, higher benchmark crack spreads and increased refinery production. Refinery utilization was 97%, up from 94% in the prior-year quarter, reflecting Suncor’s increased refining network nameplate capacity of 511,000 bbls/d.
Refined product sales climbed to 680,900 bbls/d, a 12.6% increase from 604,900 bbls/d in the prior-year quarter, supported by global export opportunities, retail growth and strategic partnerships. Moreover, the figure beat the consensus estimate of 594,000 bbls/d. On the earnings call, management noted that Suncor used its export capabilities and trading relationships to capture attractive margins in markets such as the Philippines and Puerto Rico.
Financial Position
Total expenses increased 16.5% to C$118 billion from the prior-year quarter. Cost of purchases of crude oil and products increased to C$5.2 billion in the first quarter of 2026, compared with C$4.3 billion in the prior-year quarter. Cost and operating, selling and general increased 14.6% to C$3.8 billion from the prior-year quarter.
Suncor generated C$4.03 billion in adjusted funds from operations, up from C$3.05 billion in the prior-year quarter. Free funds flow increased to C$2.91 billion from C$1.90 billion. The company returned more than C$1.5 billion to its shareholders, including C$825 million in share repurchases and over C$700 million in dividends.
Capital expenditures totaled C$1.08 billion, broadly flat with the year-ago quarter. As of March 31, 2026, Suncor had cash and cash equivalents of C$3.27 billion and long-term debt of C$10.1 billion. Its debt-to-capitalization was 18.1%.
Guidance and Shareholder Returns
Suncor updated its 2026 corporate guidance to reflect the 10% increase in refining network nameplate capacity to 511,000 bbls/d. Refinery throughput guidance has remained unchanged at 460,000-475,000 bbls/d, while refinery utilization guidance has been revised to 90-93% due to the larger capacity base.
This company has also increased its planned monthly share repurchases from C$275 million to C$350 million, implying nearly C$4 billion in total 2026 buybacks, more than 30% up from 2025 repurchases.
The company expects 2026 corporate guidance to reflect strong operational performance across its integrated energy portfolio. Total upstream production is projected between 840,000 bbls/d and 870,000 bbls/d, supported by Oil Sands output of 785,000-810,000 bbls/d and E&P production of 55,000-60,000 bbls/d.
Refinery throughput is anticipated to range from 460,000 bbls/d to 475,000 bbls/d, with utilization between 90% and 93%, and refined product sales of 600,000-620,000 bbls/d.
Cash operating costs are forecasted to remain competitive, with Oil Sands Operations at $26-$29 per barrel, Fort Hills at $33-$36 and Syncrude at $34-$37, reflecting continued efficiency improvements and disciplined cost management.
The company expects total capital expenditures in 2026 to be between $5.6 billion and $5.8 billion. Of this, approximately $2.6-$2.7 billion will be directed toward economic investment capital, funding projects that enhance efficiency, flexibility and resilience. Key allocations include $425-$475 million for Exploration & Production, $430-$460 million for new In Situ well pads and $1.74-$1.76 billion for other economic investments.
In addition, $3-$3.1 billion will be dedicated to asset sustainment and maintenance capital, supporting the base business and regular upkeep. This includes $2.1-$2.15 billion for Oil Sands, $875-$925 million for Downstream operations and $25 million for Corporate. Notable projects within this budget include West White Rose, Firebag and MacKay River well pads, Fort Hills North Pit, Petro-Canada retail growth and Mildred Lake East.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed a upward trend in fresh estimates.
The consensus estimate has shifted 44.06% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
Currently, Suncor Energy has a nice Growth Score of B, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with an A. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a score of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, Suncor Energy has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
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Why Is Suncor Energy (SU) Up 1.9% Since Last Earnings Report?
A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Suncor Energy (SU - Free Report) . Shares have added about 1.9% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Suncor Energy due for a pullback? Well, first let's take a quick look at the latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent drivers for Suncor Energy Inc. before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.
Suncor Energy Q1 Earnings Miss Estimates, Revenues Beat, Both Up Y/Y
Suncor Energy reported first-quarter 2026 adjusted operating earnings of $1.41 per share, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.45 by 3%. This underperformance can be attributed to a 16.5% increase in total expenses and higher commodity input costs during the quarter. However, the bottom line increased from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure of 91 cents due to stronger downstream margins, higher upstream price realizations and increased sales volumes.
Calgary-based integrated oil and gas company’s operating revenues of $10.7 billion beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $8.9 billion by 19.53%. The top line increased approximately 23.2% year over year, aided by record refined product sales, higher refinery production and stronger benchmark crack spreads.
Suncor delivered a strong operating quarter, with record first-quarter upstream production of 875,200 barrels per day (bbls/d), up from 853,200 bbls/d in the year-ago quarter. Refining throughput also reached a first-quarter record of 497,800 bbls/d, compared with 482,700 bbls/d a year earlier, while refined product sales rose to a quarterly record of 680,900 bbls/d from 604,900 bbls/d in the prior-year period.
Management highlighted that the quarter reflected continued momentum from 2025, supported by record first-quarter upstream output, strong refinery performance and expanded product sales through domestic retail growth and global export opportunities.
Segmental Performance
Upstream: Suncor delivered a strong operating quarter, with record first-quarter upstream production of 875,200 bbls/d, up from 853,200 bbls/d in the year-ago quarter. Moreover, the figure beat the consensus estimate of 868,000 bbls/d.
Total Oil Sands production was 798,800 bbls/d, up from 790,900 bbls/d in the year-ago quarter. Total Oil Sands bitumen production was 933,900 bbls/d, broadly comparable with 937,300 bbls/d in the prior-year period, and featured record quarterly production at Fort Hills. However, Syncrude maintenance and a third-party natural gas input pipeline curtailment weighed on production.
Net synthetic crude oil and diesel production declined to 519,300 bbls/d from 536,600 bbls/d a year earlier due to lower Syncrude upgrader availability. Non-upgraded bitumen production increased to 279,500 bbls/d from 254,300 bbls/d, primarily due to decreased upgrader availability.
Oil Sands adjusted operating earnings were C$1.57 billion, down from C$1.62 billion in the prior-year quarter, as higher operating expenses, share-based compensation, commodity input costs and asset advancement expenses more than offset improved price realizations and sales volumes.
Exploration and Production (E&P) production rose to 76,400 bbls/d from 62,300 bbls/d in the year-ago period, driven by strong production across assets. Adjusted operating earnings in the segment increased to C$382 million from C$158 million, primarily due to higher sales volumes and stronger price realizations.
Downstream: The segment was the key driver of the quarter’s strength. Adjusted operating earnings surged to C$1.68 billion from C$667 million in the prior-year quarter, primarily due to a significant FIFO inventory valuation gain, higher benchmark crack spreads and increased refinery production. Refinery utilization was 97%, up from 94% in the prior-year quarter, reflecting Suncor’s increased refining network nameplate capacity of 511,000 bbls/d.
Refined product sales climbed to 680,900 bbls/d, a 12.6% increase from 604,900 bbls/d in the prior-year quarter, supported by global export opportunities, retail growth and strategic partnerships. Moreover, the figure beat the consensus estimate of 594,000 bbls/d. On the earnings call, management noted that Suncor used its export capabilities and trading relationships to capture attractive margins in markets such as the Philippines and Puerto Rico.
Financial Position
Total expenses increased 16.5% to C$118 billion from the prior-year quarter. Cost of purchases of crude oil and products increased to C$5.2 billion in the first quarter of 2026, compared with C$4.3 billion in the prior-year quarter. Cost and operating, selling and general increased 14.6% to C$3.8 billion from the prior-year quarter.
Suncor generated C$4.03 billion in adjusted funds from operations, up from C$3.05 billion in the prior-year quarter. Free funds flow increased to C$2.91 billion from C$1.90 billion. The company returned more than C$1.5 billion to its shareholders, including C$825 million in share repurchases and over C$700 million in dividends.
Capital expenditures totaled C$1.08 billion, broadly flat with the year-ago quarter. As of March 31, 2026, Suncor had cash and cash equivalents of C$3.27 billion and long-term debt of C$10.1 billion. Its debt-to-capitalization was 18.1%.
Guidance and Shareholder Returns
Suncor updated its 2026 corporate guidance to reflect the 10% increase in refining network nameplate capacity to 511,000 bbls/d. Refinery throughput guidance has remained unchanged at 460,000-475,000 bbls/d, while refinery utilization guidance has been revised to 90-93% due to the larger capacity base.
This company has also increased its planned monthly share repurchases from C$275 million to C$350 million, implying nearly C$4 billion in total 2026 buybacks, more than 30% up from 2025 repurchases.
The company expects 2026 corporate guidance to reflect strong operational performance across its integrated energy portfolio. Total upstream production is projected between 840,000 bbls/d and 870,000 bbls/d, supported by Oil Sands output of 785,000-810,000 bbls/d and E&P production of 55,000-60,000 bbls/d.
Refinery throughput is anticipated to range from 460,000 bbls/d to 475,000 bbls/d, with utilization between 90% and 93%, and refined product sales of 600,000-620,000 bbls/d.
Cash operating costs are forecasted to remain competitive, with Oil Sands Operations at $26-$29 per barrel, Fort Hills at $33-$36 and Syncrude at $34-$37, reflecting continued efficiency improvements and disciplined cost management.
The company expects total capital expenditures in 2026 to be between $5.6 billion and $5.8 billion. Of this, approximately $2.6-$2.7 billion will be directed toward economic investment capital, funding projects that enhance efficiency, flexibility and resilience. Key allocations include $425-$475 million for Exploration & Production, $430-$460 million for new In Situ well pads and $1.74-$1.76 billion for other economic investments.
In addition, $3-$3.1 billion will be dedicated to asset sustainment and maintenance capital, supporting the base business and regular upkeep. This includes $2.1-$2.15 billion for Oil Sands, $875-$925 million for Downstream operations and $25 million for Corporate. Notable projects within this budget include West White Rose, Firebag and MacKay River well pads, Fort Hills North Pit, Petro-Canada retail growth and Mildred Lake East.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed a upward trend in fresh estimates.
The consensus estimate has shifted 44.06% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
Currently, Suncor Energy has a nice Growth Score of B, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with an A. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a score of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, Suncor Energy has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.