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Why Is Match Group (MTCH) Down 9.7% Since Last Earnings Report?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Match Group (MTCH - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 9.7% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Match Group due for a breakout? Well, first let's take a quick look at its latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent drivers for Match Group Inc. before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.

MTCH Q1 Earnings & Revenues Beat Estimates, Sales Nearly Flat Y/Y

Match Group reported first-quarter 2026 earnings of 95 cents per share, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.26%. The bottom line grew 41.8% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

Revenues were $864 million, which rose 3.9% year over year and beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.06%. On an FX-neutral basis, revenues were flat year over year at $832.3 million.

Direct revenues were $848 million, up 4.4% year over year, while indirect revenues declined 14.3% to $16 million. Top-line growth was primarily driven by strength at Hinge, where direct revenues rose 28.3% year over year, and was aided by a one-time benefit from Canada's rescission of its digital services tax.

MTCH’s Quarterly Details

In the first quarter, the total number of payers decreased 5% year over year to 13.5 million. The figure missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.86%.

Total revenues per payer (RPP) increased 10% year over year to $20.9. The figure beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.13%.

Direct revenues from Tinder were up 2% year over year to $455 million (down 3% on an FX-neutral basis). The figure surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.17%.

Tinder RPP rose 7% year over year to $17.56, and payers declined 5% to 8.6 million.

Hinge revenues grew 28.3% year over year to $194 million (up 24% on an FX-neutral basis), with a 15% increase in payers to 2.0 million and an 11% increase in RPP to $33.13.

Match Group Asia (MG Asia) direct revenues declined 6% year over year (down 7% on an FX-neutral basis) to $60 million, with payers down 9% to 900,000 and RPP up 2% to $21.74. Azar direct revenues were negatively impacted by an estimated $3 million from its temporary removal from the Apple App Store in February 2026, prior to reinstatement in April.

Evergreen and Emerging (E&E) direct revenues declined 6.7% year over year (down 10% on an FX-neutral basis) to $139 million, reflecting a 16% drop in payers to 2 million, partially offset by an 11% gain in RPP to $22.97.

Match Group’s Operating Details

Total operating costs and expenses (72.6% of revenues) decreased 4.7% year over year to $627.5 million in the first quarter. Cost of revenues decreased 11% year over year, representing 24% of total revenues, driven by savings from alternative payments.

Adjusted EBITDA was $342.9 million, up 24.6% year over year, representing an adjusted EBITDA margin of 39.7%, which expanded approximately 700 basis points from 33% in the year-ago quarter.

MTCH’s Balance Sheet

As of March 31, 2026, Match Group had cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments of $1.02 billion compared with $1.03 billion as of Dec. 31, 2025.

Long-term debt, including current maturities, stood at $4 billion as of March 31, 2026, unchanged from Dec. 31, 2025. The company plans to repay $424 million in 0.875% exchangeable senior notes at or before their June 2026 maturity using cash on hand.

In the quarter ended March 31, 2026, Match Group repurchased 2 million shares of common stock for $60 million at an average price of $31 per share.

As of April 30, 2026, $876 million in aggregate value of shares remained available under the company's share repurchase program.

MTCH’s Q2 & 2026 Guidance

Match Group expects second-quarter 2026 revenues of $850 to $860 million, down 2% to flat year over year. This range assumes a 1-point FX tailwind and incorporates a $10 million negative impact from Tinder's user experience tests and a $20 million headwind from lower Azar direct revenue.

Adjusted EBITDA of $325 to $330 million is expected, representing a 13% year-over-year increase and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 38% at the midpoint of the ranges.

For 2026, Match Group's guidance remains unchanged, with revenues expected in the range of $3.410 to $3.535 billion, roughly flat year over year at the midpoint.

Adjusted EBITDA is expected in the range of $1.28 to $1.325 billion, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 37.5% at the midpoint. Free cash flow is projected at $1.085 to $1.135 billion, indicating about 8% year-over-year growth.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a upward trend in fresh estimates.

VGM Scores

Currently, Match Group has a nice Growth Score of B, a score with the same score on the momentum front. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock has a score of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for value investors.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, Match Group has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

Match Group belongs to the Zacks Internet - Software industry. Another stock from the same industry, Automatic Data Processing (ADP - Free Report) , has gained 9.9% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended March 2026.

ADP reported revenues of $5.94 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +7%. EPS of $3.37 for the same period compares with $3.06 a year ago.

For the current quarter, ADP is expected to post earnings of $2.59 per share, indicating a change of +14.6% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -1.7% over the last 30 days.

The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for ADP. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of D.

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