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Why Is Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Up 8.7% Since Last Earnings Report?
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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Marathon Petroleum (MPC - Free Report) . Shares have added about 8.7% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
But investors have to be wondering, will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Marathon Petroleum due for a pullback? Well, first let's take a quick look at the latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent drivers for Marathon Petroleum Corporation before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.
Marathon Q1 Earnings Beat Estimates on Strong Refining Results
Marathon Petroleum reported first-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings per share of $1.65, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 72 cents. Moreover, the bottom line increased significantly from the year-ago adjusted loss of 24 cents. The outperformance was driven by stronger-than-expected Refining & Marketing segment performance.
The Findlay, OH-based oil and gas refining and marketing company reported revenues of $34.6 billion, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $30.3 billion. Moreover, the top line increased 8.5% year over year, reflecting higher sales and other operating revenues, along with higher revenues from other income.
The company distributed approximately $1 billion to its shareholders during the first quarter and ended the quarter with $3.6 billion of capacity remaining under its share repurchase authorizations as of March 31, 2026.
MPC also announced an incremental $5 billion share repurchase authorization. With the addition of this new authorization, the company will have $8.6 billion available under its share repurchase authorizations as of March 31, 2026.
Inside Marathon Petroleum’s Segments
Refining & Marketing:The Refining & Marketing segment reported adjusted EBITDA of $1.4 billion, up approximately 181.6% from the year-ago figure of $489 million, and the figure surpassed the consensus estimate by 51%.
The refining margin improved to $17.74 per barrel from $13.38 in the prior-year quarter, primarily reflecting stronger crack spreads. Moreover, the figure beat the consensus estimate by 10.3%. Refining capacity utilization for the quarter was 89%, in line with the year-ago period.
Midstream: This unit mainly reflects Marathon Petroleum’s general partner and majority limited partner interests in MPLX — a publicly traded master limited partnership that owns, operates, develops and acquires pipelines and other midstream assets.
The segment reported adjusted EBITDA of $1.6 billion, down from the year-ago figure of $1.7 billion. The figure also missed the consensus estimate by 2.7%.
Financial Analysis
Marathon Petroleum reported expenses of $33.2 billion in the first quarter of 2026, up from $31.2 billion reported in the year-ago quarter.
In the reported quarter, Marathon Petroleum spent $1.2 billion on capital programs (26% on Refining & Marketing and 71% on the Midstream segment) compared with $776 million in the year-ago period.
As of March 31, 2026, this company had cash and cash equivalents of $2.1 billion and total debt, including that of MPLX, of $32.8 billion, with a debt-to-capitalization of 58.3%.
Guidance
In the second quarter of 2026, Marathon Petroleum expects solid operating performance, supported by refinery throughput of nearly 3 million barrels per day, including 2.8 million bpd of crude oil refined. The company projects refining operating costs of approximately $5.65 per barrel, while distribution expenses are expected to total around $1.63 billion. Planned turnaround costs are forecast at $300 million, and depreciation and amortization expense for the Refining & Marketing segment is expected to be about $390 million, while corporate costs are projected at roughly $240 million, including $30 million of depreciation and amortization. Overall, the outlook reflects continued strong utilization levels and a more normalized maintenance schedule heading into the quarter.
Marathon Petroleum expects 2026 capital spending, excluding MPLX, to total nearly $1.5 billion. Around 65% of the planned expenditure is directed toward value-enhancing projects, while the remaining 35% is allocated to sustaining operations. The company’s investment plan includes several high-return initiatives across its Galveston Bay, Robinson, El Paso and Garyville refineries. During the first quarter of 2026, MPC successfully commissioned the Garyville jet flexibility project, where upgrades to the hydrocracker fractionator now enable the conversion of existing products into higher-value jet fuel. This enhancement positions the company to capitalize on rising domestic and international jet fuel demand. Alongside these long-term strategic investments, MPC is also pursuing shorter-cycle projects aimed at improving margins and lowering operating costs.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed a upward trend in estimates revision.
The consensus estimate has shifted 12.44% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
Currently, Marathon Petroleum has a nice Growth Score of B, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with a C. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. It comes with little surprise Marathon Petroleum has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.
Performance of an Industry Player
Marathon Petroleum is part of the Zacks Oil and Gas - Refining and Marketing industry. Over the past month, Phillips 66 (PSX - Free Report) , a stock from the same industry, has gained 7.6%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended March 2026 more than a month ago.
Phillips 66 reported revenues of $33 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +4%. EPS of $0.49 for the same period compares with -$0.90 a year ago.
For the current quarter, Phillips 66 is expected to post earnings of $5.83 per share, indicating a change of +145% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -9.1% over the last 30 days.
Phillips 66 has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of D.
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Why Is Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Up 8.7% Since Last Earnings Report?
A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Marathon Petroleum (MPC - Free Report) . Shares have added about 8.7% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
But investors have to be wondering, will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Marathon Petroleum due for a pullback? Well, first let's take a quick look at the latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent drivers for Marathon Petroleum Corporation before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.
Marathon Q1 Earnings Beat Estimates on Strong Refining Results
Marathon Petroleum reported first-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings per share of $1.65, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 72 cents. Moreover, the bottom line increased significantly from the year-ago adjusted loss of 24 cents. The outperformance was driven by stronger-than-expected Refining & Marketing segment performance.
The Findlay, OH-based oil and gas refining and marketing company reported revenues of $34.6 billion, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $30.3 billion. Moreover, the top line increased 8.5% year over year, reflecting higher sales and other operating revenues, along with higher revenues from other income.
The company distributed approximately $1 billion to its shareholders during the first quarter and ended the quarter with $3.6 billion of capacity remaining under its share repurchase authorizations as of March 31, 2026.
MPC also announced an incremental $5 billion share repurchase authorization. With the addition of this new authorization, the company will have $8.6 billion available under its share repurchase authorizations as of March 31, 2026.
Inside Marathon Petroleum’s Segments
Refining & Marketing: The Refining & Marketing segment reported adjusted EBITDA of $1.4 billion, up approximately 181.6% from the year-ago figure of $489 million, and the figure surpassed the consensus estimate by 51%.
The refining margin improved to $17.74 per barrel from $13.38 in the prior-year quarter, primarily reflecting stronger crack spreads. Moreover, the figure beat the consensus estimate by 10.3%. Refining capacity utilization for the quarter was 89%, in line with the year-ago period.
Midstream: This unit mainly reflects Marathon Petroleum’s general partner and majority limited partner interests in MPLX — a publicly traded master limited partnership that owns, operates, develops and acquires pipelines and other midstream assets.
The segment reported adjusted EBITDA of $1.6 billion, down from the year-ago figure of $1.7 billion. The figure also missed the consensus estimate by 2.7%.
Financial Analysis
Marathon Petroleum reported expenses of $33.2 billion in the first quarter of 2026, up from $31.2 billion reported in the year-ago quarter.
In the reported quarter, Marathon Petroleum spent $1.2 billion on capital programs (26% on Refining & Marketing and 71% on the Midstream segment) compared with $776 million in the year-ago period.
As of March 31, 2026, this company had cash and cash equivalents of $2.1 billion and total debt, including that of MPLX, of $32.8 billion, with a debt-to-capitalization of 58.3%.
Guidance
In the second quarter of 2026, Marathon Petroleum expects solid operating performance, supported by refinery throughput of nearly 3 million barrels per day, including 2.8 million bpd of crude oil refined. The company projects refining operating costs of approximately $5.65 per barrel, while distribution expenses are expected to total around $1.63 billion. Planned turnaround costs are forecast at $300 million, and depreciation and amortization expense for the Refining & Marketing segment is expected to be about $390 million, while corporate costs are projected at roughly $240 million, including $30 million of depreciation and amortization. Overall, the outlook reflects continued strong utilization levels and a more normalized maintenance schedule heading into the quarter.
Marathon Petroleum expects 2026 capital spending, excluding MPLX, to total nearly $1.5 billion. Around 65% of the planned expenditure is directed toward value-enhancing projects, while the remaining 35% is allocated to sustaining operations. The company’s investment plan includes several high-return initiatives across its Galveston Bay, Robinson, El Paso and Garyville refineries. During the first quarter of 2026, MPC successfully commissioned the Garyville jet flexibility project, where upgrades to the hydrocracker fractionator now enable the conversion of existing products into higher-value jet fuel. This enhancement positions the company to capitalize on rising domestic and international jet fuel demand. Alongside these long-term strategic investments, MPC is also pursuing shorter-cycle projects aimed at improving margins and lowering operating costs.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed a upward trend in estimates revision.
The consensus estimate has shifted 12.44% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
Currently, Marathon Petroleum has a nice Growth Score of B, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with a C. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. It comes with little surprise Marathon Petroleum has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.
Performance of an Industry Player
Marathon Petroleum is part of the Zacks Oil and Gas - Refining and Marketing industry. Over the past month, Phillips 66 (PSX - Free Report) , a stock from the same industry, has gained 7.6%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended March 2026 more than a month ago.
Phillips 66 reported revenues of $33 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +4%. EPS of $0.49 for the same period compares with -$0.90 a year ago.
For the current quarter, Phillips 66 is expected to post earnings of $5.83 per share, indicating a change of +145% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -9.1% over the last 30 days.
Phillips 66 has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of D.