It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Lumentum (LITE Quick QuoteLITE - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 0.7% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Lumentum due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Lumentum Q3 Earnings Top Estimates, Revenues Up Y/Y

Lumentum Holdings delivered non-GAAP earnings of $2.37 per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5.8% and surged significantly from 57 cents reported in the year-ago quarter. 

Revenues of $808 million increased 90.1% year over year and edged past expectations by 0.37%. The quarter’s results reflected strong cloud and AI demand, with components revenue reaching $533.3 million (66% of total sales), supported by momentum in laser chips and “scale-across” products that management highlighted as an important margin lever.

LITE’s Systems Growth Led by Cloud Transceiver Strength

Systems revenues were $275.1 million, rising 121.1% year over year and 24% sequentially. Management said cloud transceivers accounted for the majority of the segment’s growth as Lumentum leveraged an expanded manufacturing footprint in Thailand.

Optical circuit switches also contributed, with management describing a multi-year, multibillion-dollar purchase agreement as a foundation for long-term growth. However, the company noted that supply-chain tightness remains a gating factor for the pace of the ramp, especially given a step-up in requested output.

Lumentum Highlights Scale-Across Demand and Laser Momentum

Lumentum emphasized that its “scale-across” portfolio is becoming more material as hyperscalers link compute domains across distributed data center architectures. Management called out pump lasers and narrow linewidth laser assemblies as key building blocks for these networks, with the latter providing the precision needed for higher-speed coherent links.

Operationally, the company posted strong shipment trends across core components. Narrow-linewidth laser assemblies grew more than 120% year over year, while pump laser shipments increased 80%, reflecting demand for higher-bandwidth networking and optical amplification. Management also pointed to new company records in EML shipments, driven by 100-gig lane speeds, with 200-gig EML revenue more than doubling sequentially.

LITE’s Margins Expand Sharply on Mix and Utilization

Non-GAAP gross margin was 47.9%, up 540 basis points (bps) sequentially and significantly expanded from 35.2% reported in the year-ago quarter. Management attributed the improvement to better factory utilization, selective pricing actions and a more favorable mix, with strength in data center laser chips a key contributor.

Non-GAAP operating expenses were $126.2 million (up 22.1% year over year), or 15.6% of revenue, reflecting continued investment in research and development and commercial support for expanding cloud opportunities while maintaining tight cost controls.

Profitability translated into sizable operating leverage. Non-GAAP operating margin improved to 32.2%, up 700 bps sequentially and significantly expanded from 10.8% reported in the year-ago quarter.

Lumentum’s Balance Sheet Bolstered by Large Equity Proceeds

Lumentum ended the fiscal third quarter with $3.17 billion in total cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments, up from $2.02 billion sequentially, primarily due to proceeds from the issuance of Series A Convertible Preferred Stock. The larger cash position provides flexibility as the company scales manufacturing and supports new program ramps tied to cloud and AI infrastructure.

Working capital and investment levels reflected growth expectations. Inventories increased by $62 million sequentially to support expected demand, and capital expenditures totaled $125 million, focused mainly on manufacturing capacity expansion. Management also underscored longer-term capacity efforts, including progress toward converting an acquired Greensboro, NC, facility to indium phosphide manufacturing.

LITE Guides to Another Record Quarter as 1.6T Ramps

For the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, Lumentum expects revenues between $960 million and $1.01 billion. The company guided non-GAAP operating margin to 35-36% and non-GAAP earnings to $2.85-$3.05 per share, based on an effective tax rate assumption of 16.5% and approximately 102 million diluted shares.

Management said a meaningful driver of sequential growth is expected to be transceivers, with 1.6T shipments poised to ramp in the fiscal fourth quarter. The company also expects further progress on integrating internal CW lasers into its module portfolio, with management indicating that roughly 20% of modules in the near-term mix could include Lumentum’s own CW lasers, alongside ongoing yield improvements and efforts to reduce scrap.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a upward trend in fresh estimates.

The consensus estimate has shifted 19.17% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Lumentum has a nice Growth Score of B, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a D. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock has a grade of F on the value side, putting it in the lowest quintile for value investors.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. It comes with little surprise Lumentum has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

Lumentum belongs to the Zacks Communication - Components industry. Another stock from the same industry, NETGEAR, Inc. (NTGR Quick QuoteNTGR - Free Report) , has gained 2.5% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended March 2026.

NETGEAR reported revenues of $158.82 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -2%. EPS of $0.06 for the same period compares with $0.02 a year ago.

NETGEAR is expected to post earnings of $0.02 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -66.7%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +9.7%.

The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for NETGEAR. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of B.