A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Harley-Davidson (HOG Quick QuoteHOG - Free Report) . Shares have added about 1.7% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

But investors have to be wondering, will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Harley-Davidson due for a pullback? Well, first let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent drivers for Harley-Davidson, Inc. before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.

HOG Q1 Earnings Miss Estimates

Harley-Davidson reported first-quarter 2026 earnings of 22 cents per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 34 cents by 36.1%. Earnings also dropped 79% from $1.07 a year ago.

Profitability deteriorated sharply despite the revenue beat. Harley-Davidson posted consolidated operating income of $23 million versus $160 million in the year-ago quarter, pushing operating margin down to 2% from 12.1%. Net income attributable to the company fell to $25 million from $133 million, reflecting pressure across key segments.

Revenues at Harley-Davidson Motor Company (HDMC) came in at $1,055 million, which declined 2% year over year but topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $958 million by 10.7%. The quarter featured a 22% year-over-year reduction in global dealer inventory of new motorcycles, underscoring the company’s push to better align wholesale with retail demand.

Harley-Davidson Sees Retail Growth Across Key Markets

Demand indicators were better than the income statement suggests. Global retail motorcycle sales rose 8% year over year to 33,507 units, led by North America, where retail sales increased 14% to 23,803 units. The company cited strength in the United States, particularly in the Touring category, along with a favorable response to the 2026 motorcycle lineup.

Outside North America, results were softer. EMEA retail sales declined 3% year over year, while Asia Pacific fell 9%. Latin America was a bright spot, with retail up 21%, supported by gains in Brazil and Mexico. Management also pointed to encouraging early reception of its new RIDE marketing platform and said it is preparing to activate its “Back to the Bricks” growth strategy.

HOG’s HDMC Margin Hit by Tariffs and Incentives

Revenues from HDMC decreased 2% to $1,055 million as global motorcycle shipments slipped 3% to 37,295 units. Within HDMC, motorcycle revenues fell 3% to $836 million, parts and accessories dipped 1% to $142 million, and apparel was flat at $57 million, reflecting a mixed top-line backdrop.

The bigger issue was margin compression. HDMC's gross margin declined to 25.3% from 29.1% and its operating margin dropped to 1.8% from 10.8% a year earlier. The company attributed the deterioration to the cost of new or increased tariffs, the net effect of global pricing actions and sales incentives, and unfavorable product mix, partially offset by favorable foreign currency and an EU-related tariff refund tied to a favorable court judgment. Operating expenses rose $49 million year over year, including the $15 million restructuring expense recorded during the quarter.

Harley-Davidson Financial Services Revenues Drop

HDFS posted revenues of $112 million, down 54% year over year, while operating income declined 65% to $22 million.

The company linked the revenue decline to lower retail and wholesale finance receivables at lower yields. It also noted that the reduction in retail receivables reflected loan-asset sales tied to the HDFS transaction completed in the second half of 2025. Offsetting items included improved “other income” from new servicing fees, investment income and gains on third-party loan sales. Total quarter-end net finance receivables (retail plus wholesale) were $2.4 billion, down 67% from the prior year.

HOG’s LiveWire Sees Improved Results

In the quarter under review, LiveWire revenues rose to $5 million from $3 million, an 87% increase, driven by higher electric motorcycle unit sales and increased STACYC electric balance bike sales.

LiveWire’s operating loss narrowed to $18 million from $20 million a year ago, reflecting better gross margin on higher revenues and lower selling, administrative and engineering expenses.

HOG’s Financial Position & Capital Returns

In the first quarter, selling, general and administrative expenses from the HDMC unit increased to $248.1 million from $199 million in the year-ago quarter. Harley-Davidson had cash and cash equivalents of $1.8 billion as of March 31, 2026. The long-term debt decreased to $1.13 billion from $1.65 million recorded as of Dec. 31, 2025. Net cash used in operating activities was $228 million.

The company paid dividends of 22 million and repurchased $128 million worth of shares on a discretionary basis in the first quarter of 2025.

HOG Reaffirms 2026 Guidance

For full-year 2026, Harley-Davidson reaffirmed expectations for HDMC global motorcycle retail sales of 130,000-135,000 units and wholesale shipments of 130,000-135,000 units. It continues to project HDMC operating income ranging from a $40 million loss to a $10 million profit, HDFS operating income of $45-$60 million and LiveWire operating loss of $70-$80 million, with capital investments of $175-$200 million.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates.

The consensus estimate has shifted -16.23% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Harley-Davidson has a poor Growth Score of F, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with a D. However, the stock has a score of B on the value side, putting it in the second quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Interestingly, Harley-Davidson has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

Harley-Davidson belongs to the Zacks Automotive - Domestic industry. Another stock from the same industry, General Motors (GM Quick QuoteGM - Free Report) , has gained 3.8% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended March 2026.

General Motors reported revenues of $43.62 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -0.9%. EPS of $3.70 for the same period compares with $2.78 a year ago.

General Motors is expected to post earnings of $3.12 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +23.3%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +0.7%.

The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for General Motors. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of A.