Ahead of the final trading session of the week, pre-market futures are tightening a bit as investors digest the latest Employment Situation report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for the month of May. Results were as robust as could be expected, but this sees bond yields inching higher, flattening out major indexes at this hour.
Non-Farm Jobs More than Double Expectations in May: +172K
May BLS Jobs surprised to the upside this morning — more than double expectations of +80K, in fact: +172K. This is the third-straight month with job gains in triple digits, with further upward revisions for March and April. The Unemployment Rate remained steady at an historically low +4.3%.
We appear to be out of the trough: the previous nine months of BLS jobs numbers saw five of them bring negative employment growth. Since February’s -156K, March has revised up from +178K initially (which tripled expectations at the time) to +185K a month ago to +214K today. April more than doubled estimates on its first print, +115K, and now zooms up to +179K.
That said, when we dissect this jobs report by industry, these high numbers don’t look super permanent. Led by Leisure & Hospitality at +70K — a throwback to the Great Reopening, when this sector hired the most amount of workers by far month after month — and Local Government at +55K, we might view the former as seasonal (ahead of summer travel) and the latter a one-off (there are only so many new government hires local taxpayers will stand).
Otherwise, Healthcare — lately the month-over-month biggest job gainer — brought in another +35K last month, a bit under its recent trajectory but still clearly positive. Many of these jobs are on the lower end of the pay scale, but let’s not pick nits: more Americans finding work is a good thing. Social Assistance and Mining & Drilling filled +12K and +5K new jobs, respectively. Financials saw a decline of -22K, and these positions typically are a bit higher on the pay scale.
Hourly Wages remained within the expected range at +0.3%, up 10 basis points (bps) from a downwardly revised +0.2% for April, and at +3.4% year over year, -20 bps from a year ago. The Average Workweek was in-line with expectations at +34.3 hours. The U-6, aka “real unemployment,” ticked down 10 bps to +8.1%. Labor Force Participation, however — already wallowing at multi-year lows — reached +61.8% for the second-straight month. This is the only notable fly in the ointment here: an aging labor market and immigration reform appear to be taking a bite out of the participation metric.
Pre-Markets Tighten on Strong BLS Report
Higher jobs growth is obviously a benefit for the economy, but it also reduces the chance for a Fed rate cut anytime soon. Even though wage growth isn’t spiraling out of control at +0.3%, at +3.4% year over year it’s still behind overall inflation of +3.8%. In fact, chances are greater for an interest rate increase by the end of 2026 than a cut. That doesn’t seem to gibe with the sentiments of new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, so we’ll see where that narrative brings us over time.
Ahead of today’s opening bell, the Dow went from +65 points ahead of the BLS print to flat, the S&P 500 dipped a bit further into the red, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq is shedding another -440 points. Consider the huge gains we’ve seen here, just since the start of Q1 earnings season: nobody’s turning sour on the tech market; many have seen this as a good time to take profits.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Bigstock
Nonfarm Payrolls Increased More Than Expected
Ahead of the final trading session of the week, pre-market futures are tightening a bit as investors digest the latest Employment Situation report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for the month of May. Results were as robust as could be expected, but this sees bond yields inching higher, flattening out major indexes at this hour.
Non-Farm Jobs More than Double Expectations in May: +172K
May BLS Jobs surprised to the upside this morning — more than double expectations of +80K, in fact: +172K. This is the third-straight month with job gains in triple digits, with further upward revisions for March and April. The Unemployment Rate remained steady at an historically low +4.3%.
We appear to be out of the trough: the previous nine months of BLS jobs numbers saw five of them bring negative employment growth. Since February’s -156K, March has revised up from +178K initially (which tripled expectations at the time) to +185K a month ago to +214K today. April more than doubled estimates on its first print, +115K, and now zooms up to +179K.
That said, when we dissect this jobs report by industry, these high numbers don’t look super permanent. Led by Leisure & Hospitality at +70K — a throwback to the Great Reopening, when this sector hired the most amount of workers by far month after month — and Local Government at +55K, we might view the former as seasonal (ahead of summer travel) and the latter a one-off (there are only so many new government hires local taxpayers will stand).
Otherwise, Healthcare — lately the month-over-month biggest job gainer — brought in another +35K last month, a bit under its recent trajectory but still clearly positive. Many of these jobs are on the lower end of the pay scale, but let’s not pick nits: more Americans finding work is a good thing. Social Assistance and Mining & Drilling filled +12K and +5K new jobs, respectively. Financials saw a decline of -22K, and these positions typically are a bit higher on the pay scale.
Hourly Wages remained within the expected range at +0.3%, up 10 basis points (bps) from a downwardly revised +0.2% for April, and at +3.4% year over year, -20 bps from a year ago. The Average Workweek was in-line with expectations at +34.3 hours. The U-6, aka “real unemployment,” ticked down 10 bps to +8.1%. Labor Force Participation, however — already wallowing at multi-year lows — reached +61.8% for the second-straight month. This is the only notable fly in the ointment here: an aging labor market and immigration reform appear to be taking a bite out of the participation metric.
Pre-Markets Tighten on Strong BLS Report
Higher jobs growth is obviously a benefit for the economy, but it also reduces the chance for a Fed rate cut anytime soon. Even though wage growth isn’t spiraling out of control at +0.3%, at +3.4% year over year it’s still behind overall inflation of +3.8%. In fact, chances are greater for an interest rate increase by the end of 2026 than a cut. That doesn’t seem to gibe with the sentiments of new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, so we’ll see where that narrative brings us over time.
Ahead of today’s opening bell, the Dow went from +65 points ahead of the BLS print to flat, the S&P 500 dipped a bit further into the red, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq is shedding another -440 points. Consider the huge gains we’ve seen here, just since the start of Q1 earnings season: nobody’s turning sour on the tech market; many have seen this as a good time to take profits.