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Ford Stock Up 45% Over the Past Year: Buy, Hold or Sell?
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Key Takeaways
Ford is up more than 45% over the past year, helped by strong earnings and easing supply headwinds.
Ford Pro grew EBIT by $376M despite lower wholesales, with subscriptions up 30% to 879,000.
Novelis restarted Oswego operations, helping Ford target recovery of half its lost truck units.
U.S. legacy automaker Ford (F - Free Report) is up more than 45% over the past year, outpacing the industry’s 37% gain over the same period. While the stock has underperformed its closest peer, General Motors (GM - Free Report) , it has handily outperformed Stellantis (STLA - Free Report) , which witnessed its shares decline 30% over the same timeframe.
1-Year Price Performance Comparison
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Ford crushed its earnings estimates by 230% in the last quarter, is aggressively building recurring revenue streams, and is finally seeing its biggest supply headwind lift with the restart of the Novelis facility.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The stock is trading at 8X forward earnings, with a Value Score of A. Yes, there are a few challenges in Ford’s path, but there are various factors working in its favor, which make us believe that the story still has room to run. Here's what the numbers and the latest developments say.
Ford’s Rally Has Legs
Ford's first-quarter 2026 earnings were impressive. Revenues and EPS came ahead of expectations and also increased year over year. The company raised its full-year 2026 adjusted EBIT guidance to $8.5-$10.5 billion from $8-$10 billion.
Ford is benefiting from disciplined pricing, a richer product mix and the growing commercial engine of Ford Pro.
Off-road trims like Raptor and Tremor now account for nearly a quarter of U.S. sales. Ford has been spending less on incentives than its rivals while still gaining retail share. The company is choosing margin over volume, and it's working.
Ford Pro Is the Real Story
One key growth driver for Ford is Ford Pro— the commercial vehicles and services segment. Despite a 10% drop in wholesales in the last quarter due to supply disruptions, Ford Pro still grew EBIT by $376 million year over year and held an 11.4% margin. That reflects a business that's structurally improving.
Paid software subscriptions grew 30% year over year to 879,000 in first-quarter alone. The segment's partnership with ServiceTitan is deepening its digital services moat. Ford Pro is expected to generate $6.5-$7.5 billion in EBIT for full-year 2026, and it's the kind of recurring, high-margin revenue stream that the market hasn't fully priced in yet.
Ford Energy: The Diversification Play
Beyond trucks and commercial vans, Ford is quietly building a third leg. Ford Energy has a $1.5 billion planned investment in 2026, targeting 20 GWh of battery storage capacity by 2027, with capacity being allocated across its Kentucky and Michigan plants. This isn't just an EV adjacency play— it's a genuine revenue diversification effort leveraging Ford's existing manufacturing scale. Last month, Ford signed its first major customer agreement, securing a five-year battery storage supply deal with EDF Power Solutions North America.
The Novelis Headwind Is Clearing
One of the biggest overhangs on Ford's stock has been the aluminum supply disruption caused by fires at Novelis's Oswego, New York plant— a critical supplier for F-Series trucks, especially the F-150. The disruption cost Ford an estimated 100,000 trucks in 2025 and contributed to roughly $2 billion in losses.
But Novelis restarted operations at Oswego last week. Supply is normalizing, and Ford plans to accelerate F-Series output, targeting recovery of roughly half the previously lost units. As production ramps back up in the second half of 2026, both Ford Pro and Ford Blue stand to benefit materially from higher truck volumes.
The Real Risks Aren't Going Away
Well, Ford isn't a clean story. Model e— its EV segment— is expected to post losses of $4-$4.5 billion in 2026, following a $4.8 billion loss in 2025. That's a structural drag that isn't close to turning around. To be fair, this is an industry-wide problem. General Motors recorded $7.6 billion in EV-related charges in the second half of 2025 and another $1.1 billion in the first quarter of 2026. Stellantis is similarly absorbing EV reset charges. Legacy automakers collectively overspent on electrification ahead of actual consumer demand, and Ford is no exception.
Beyond EVs, tariff exposure adds uncertainty — Ford expects around $1 billion in headwinds for 2026. Commodity costs, particularly aluminum, are running roughly $1 billion worse than prior estimates. Capital expenditures are climbing to $9.5–$10.5 billion. These are real pressures on free cash flow.
F’s Balance Sheet and Dividend Strength Are Hard to Ignore
Ford ended first-quarter 2026 with $22 billion in cash and $43.1 billion in total liquidity. That's a fortress balance sheet for a company navigating simultaneous investments in EVs, energy storage, and commercial software. It gives management the runway to fund its Ford+ priorities even if macro conditions deteriorate. Layer on a dividend yield above 4%— more than triple the S&P 500 average— and Ford is actively paying investors to wait while the thesis plays out.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Our Take: Hold With Conviction
After a 45% run in the past year, the easy money has been made. But selling here would be a mistake. The Novelis restart removes the single biggest near-term operational headwind. Ford Pro's software-driven margin expansion is a multi-year story just getting started. Ford Energy is moving from blueprint to real contracts. And the balance sheet is strong enough to absorb the Model e drag without threatening the dividend or long-term investments. Ford remains a stock worth holding onto.
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Image: Bigstock
Ford Stock Up 45% Over the Past Year: Buy, Hold or Sell?
Key Takeaways
U.S. legacy automaker Ford (F - Free Report) is up more than 45% over the past year, outpacing the industry’s 37% gain over the same period. While the stock has underperformed its closest peer, General Motors (GM - Free Report) , it has handily outperformed Stellantis (STLA - Free Report) , which witnessed its shares decline 30% over the same timeframe.
1-Year Price Performance Comparison
Ford crushed its earnings estimates by 230% in the last quarter, is aggressively building recurring revenue streams, and is finally seeing its biggest supply headwind lift with the restart of the Novelis facility.
The stock is trading at 8X forward earnings, with a Value Score of A. Yes, there are a few challenges in Ford’s path, but there are various factors working in its favor, which make us believe that the story still has room to run. Here's what the numbers and the latest developments say.
Ford’s Rally Has Legs
Ford's first-quarter 2026 earnings were impressive. Revenues and EPS came ahead of expectations and also increased year over year. The company raised its full-year 2026 adjusted EBIT guidance to $8.5-$10.5 billion from $8-$10 billion.
Ford is benefiting from disciplined pricing, a richer product mix and the growing commercial engine of Ford Pro.
Off-road trims like Raptor and Tremor now account for nearly a quarter of U.S. sales. Ford has been spending less on incentives than its rivals while still gaining retail share. The company is choosing margin over volume, and it's working.
Ford Pro Is the Real Story
One key growth driver for Ford is Ford Pro— the commercial vehicles and services segment. Despite a 10% drop in wholesales in the last quarter due to supply disruptions, Ford Pro still grew EBIT by $376 million year over year and held an 11.4% margin. That reflects a business that's structurally improving.
Paid software subscriptions grew 30% year over year to 879,000 in first-quarter alone. The segment's partnership with ServiceTitan is deepening its digital services moat. Ford Pro is expected to generate $6.5-$7.5 billion in EBIT for full-year 2026, and it's the kind of recurring, high-margin revenue stream that the market hasn't fully priced in yet.
Ford Energy: The Diversification Play
Beyond trucks and commercial vans, Ford is quietly building a third leg. Ford Energy has a $1.5 billion planned investment in 2026, targeting 20 GWh of battery storage capacity by 2027, with capacity being allocated across its Kentucky and Michigan plants. This isn't just an EV adjacency play— it's a genuine revenue diversification effort leveraging Ford's existing manufacturing scale. Last month, Ford signed its first major customer agreement, securing a five-year battery storage supply deal with EDF Power Solutions North America.
The Novelis Headwind Is Clearing
One of the biggest overhangs on Ford's stock has been the aluminum supply disruption caused by fires at Novelis's Oswego, New York plant— a critical supplier for F-Series trucks, especially the F-150. The disruption cost Ford an estimated 100,000 trucks in 2025 and contributed to roughly $2 billion in losses.
But Novelis restarted operations at Oswego last week. Supply is normalizing, and Ford plans to accelerate F-Series output, targeting recovery of roughly half the previously lost units. As production ramps back up in the second half of 2026, both Ford Pro and Ford Blue stand to benefit materially from higher truck volumes.
The Real Risks Aren't Going Away
Well, Ford isn't a clean story. Model e— its EV segment— is expected to post losses of $4-$4.5 billion in 2026, following a $4.8 billion loss in 2025. That's a structural drag that isn't close to turning around. To be fair, this is an industry-wide problem. General Motors recorded $7.6 billion in EV-related charges in the second half of 2025 and another $1.1 billion in the first quarter of 2026. Stellantis is similarly absorbing EV reset charges. Legacy automakers collectively overspent on electrification ahead of actual consumer demand, and Ford is no exception.
Beyond EVs, tariff exposure adds uncertainty — Ford expects around $1 billion in headwinds for 2026. Commodity costs, particularly aluminum, are running roughly $1 billion worse than prior estimates. Capital expenditures are climbing to $9.5–$10.5 billion. These are real pressures on free cash flow.
F’s Balance Sheet and Dividend Strength Are Hard to Ignore
Ford ended first-quarter 2026 with $22 billion in cash and $43.1 billion in total liquidity. That's a fortress balance sheet for a company navigating simultaneous investments in EVs, energy storage, and commercial software. It gives management the runway to fund its Ford+ priorities even if macro conditions deteriorate. Layer on a dividend yield above 4%— more than triple the S&P 500 average— and Ford is actively paying investors to wait while the thesis plays out.
Our Take: Hold With Conviction
After a 45% run in the past year, the easy money has been made. But selling here would be a mistake. The Novelis restart removes the single biggest near-term operational headwind. Ford Pro's software-driven margin expansion is a multi-year story just getting started. Ford Energy is moving from blueprint to real contracts. And the balance sheet is strong enough to absorb the Model e drag without threatening the dividend or long-term investments. Ford remains a stock worth holding onto.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ford's 2026 EPS has moved up over the past 30 days to $1.64, implying year-over-year growth of 50%. The stock carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here