A month has gone by since the last earnings report for ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO Quick QuoteZTO - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 4.3% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is ZTO Express Cayman due for a breakout? Well, first let's take a quick look at the latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent drivers for ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.

ZTO Q1 Earnings Up Year over Year

ZTO Express reported first-quarter 2026 earnings of 43 cents per share, which improved from the year-ago quarter. Total revenues of $1.92 billion also improved from the year-ago reported quarter.

Detailed Operational Statistics

Revenue from the core express delivery business increased 22.5% year over year, owing to a 13.2% growth in parcel volume and an 8.2% increase in parcel unit price. Key account revenue, generated by direct sales organizations, grew 92.2% year over year owing to increase in e-commerce return parcels.

Revenues from freight forwarding services decreased 13% year over year. Revenue from sales of accessories, largely consisted of sales of thermal paper for digital waybills, rose 3.1% year over year. Other revenues were mainly derived from financing services.

Gross profit increased 20.3% from the year-ago reported quarter. Gross margin rate fell to 24.4% from 24.7% in the year-ago period.

Total operating expenses were RMB690.0 million ($100.0 million), compared with RMB283.8 million in the same period last year.

ZTO Express exited the first quarter of 2026 with cash and cash equivalents of $1.65 billion compared with $1.43 billion at the end of the prior quarter.

ZTO’s board has approved a new share repurchase program in March 2026, authorizing the repurchase of up to $1.5 billion of its shares over the next 24 months, effective from March 20, 2026, through March 20, 2028. ZTO Express anticipates to fund these repurchases utilizing its existing cash balance.

Based on current market and operating conditions, ZTO Express reaffirms its 2026 parcel volume guidance in the range of 42.37 billion to 43.52 billion (reflecting 10-13% year over year growth).

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

Analysts were quiet during the last two month period as none of them issued any earnings estimate revisions.

VGM Scores

At this time, ZTO Express Cayman has a average Growth Score of C, a score with the same score on the momentum front. However, the stock has a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for value investors.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

ZTO Express Cayman has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

ZTO Express Cayman is part of the Zacks Transportation - Services industry. Over the past month, Expeditors International (EXPD Quick QuoteEXPD - Free Report) , a stock from the same industry, has gained 1.4%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended March 2026 more than a month ago.

Expeditors International reported revenues of $2.78 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +4.4%. EPS of $1.71 for the same period compares with $1.47 a year ago.

Expeditors International is expected to post earnings of $1.56 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +16.4%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate remained unchanged.

The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) for Expeditors International. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of D.