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CF vs. NTR: Which Fertilizer Giant Is the Better Pick Now?
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Key Takeaways
CF and NTR benefit from strong agricultural markets, tight supplies and higher fertilizer pricing.
CF benefits from tight global nitrogen markets, strong pricing and strong cash flows.
Nutrien is boosting potash output, expanding through acquisitions and advancing cost reductions.
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF - Free Report) and Nutrien Ltd. (NTR - Free Report) are two of the biggest players in the fertilizer space. The underlying strength of the agricultural market and attractive farm economics are spurring demand for fertilizers globally. Farmer economics remain favorable in most global growing regions due to strong crop demand and affordable inputs.
Supportive farmer economics, improved affordability and low inventory levels are driving potash demand globally. The phosphate market is also benefiting from low producer and channel inventories. Demand for nitrogen fertilizer remains strong in major markets such as North America, India and Brazil. Strong demand and supply tightness have also led to an uptick in fertilizer prices.
Let’s dive deep and closely compare the fundamentals of these two major fertilizer producers to determine which one is a better investment option in the current environment.
The Case for CF Industries
CF Industries is capitalizing on the growing global demand for nitrogen fertilizers, driven by strong agricultural activity. Global nitrogen requirement is expected to remain strong in the near future due to recovering industrial demand and farmer economics.
High levels of corn-planted acres in the United States should drive demand for nitrogen. Demand in North America is expected to be fueled by favorable farm economics. In Brazil, demand for urea is likely to remain healthy in 2026, driven by higher corn plantings. In India, low inventory levels, reduced domestic production and undelivered volumes due to the Iran war are likely to lead to a greater requirement. The company expects India’s urea imports to rise year over year in 2026, potentially reaching 10-12 million metric tons.
CF, on its first-quarter call, said that the global nitrogen market will remain tight in 2026 due to strong demand, geopolitical disruptions and constrained natural gas availability. The Middle East conflict has further tightened the global nitrogen supply-demand balance.
Higher nitrogen prices have also contributed to a boost in CF Industries’ revenues. In the first quarter, net sales rose roughly 19% year over year on pricing strength. The average selling prices for the company’s core products increased from the prior year, driven by supply disruptions and strong global nitrogen demand. Looking ahead, CF should continue to benefit from favorable pricing trends.
CF Industries continues to focus on enhancing shareholder value by utilizing its strong cash flow, thanks to strong operational performance, strategic execution and supportive nitrogen industry fundamentals. For full-year 2025, net cash from operating activities was $2.75 billion, while free cash flow was $1.79 billion, up roughly 21% and 24% year over year, respectively. The company’s cash and cash equivalents were roughly $2 billion at the end of the first quarter. Net cash provided by operating activities was $496 million for the quarter.
The company is efficiently converting adjusted EBITDA to free cash flow. Its full-year 2025 free cash flow to adjusted EBITDA conversion rate was 62%, outpacing sector averages. The same for the first quarter was 51%.
CF returned $1.7 billion to its shareholders in 2025. It repurchased 16.6 million shares for $1.34 billion during 2025. Since the commencement of its current $2 billion buyback program in October 2025, CF Industries has bought back 3.6 million shares for around $293 million. CF offers a dividend yield of roughly 1.9% at the current stock price. It has a payout ratio of 19%. CF has a five-year annualized dividend growth rate of 12.9%.
The Case for Nutrien
Nutrien is well-placed to benefit from higher demand for fertilizers, backed by the strength in global agriculture markets. It is seeing healthy fertilizer demand in its major markets. Tight inventories are expected to support crop commodity prices.
NTR saw record potash sales volumes in the first quarter of 2026, driven by low inventory levels and favorable potash affordability, especially in key offshore markets. The company maintained its global potash shipment forecast of 74-77 million tons for 2026 and sees relatively tight potash fundamentals through the year. It is also increasing production from its low-cost North American operations to meet rising demand.
Nutrien should also gain from acquisitions and increased adoption of its digital platform. It continues to expand its footprint in Brazil through acquisitions. It is expected to continue pursuing targeted opportunities in its core markets. The company expects to utilize part of its free cash flow for incremental growth investments, including tuck-in acquisitions in the retail business.
Cost and operational efficiency initiatives are also expected to aid the company’s performance. NTR remains focused on lowering the cost of production in the potash business. It has announced several strategic actions to reduce its controllable costs and boost free cash flow. It surpassed the $200 million annual cost savings target for 2025, achieving it a year earlier than its initial target. It expects sustained cost-reduction efforts across all geographies to aid margin improvement in 2026.
NTR has a strong balance sheet, enabling it to finance its strategic growth investment, pay down debt and drive shareholder value. It returned $409 million to its shareholders in the first quarter through dividends and share repurchases. Nutrien offers a dividend yield of roughly 3.4% at the current stock price. It has a payout ratio of 48% and a five-year annualized dividend growth rate of 4.1%.
NTR, however, remains exposed to a volatile input cost environment amid supply tightness. Nutrien uses sulfur, ammonia and natural gas as key inputs. Supply disruptions from Russia amid the war with Ukraine, exacerbated by the Middle East conflict, contributed to the rise in input prices. Plant shutdowns and maintenance also resulted in a tight supply of these inputs, which, coupled with strong demand, pushed up their prices. Tight global sulfur supply, higher benchmark sulfur prices and ongoing supply-chain constraints continued to increase phosphate production costs.
The company saw higher sulfur input costs in the first quarter, leading to a higher cost of goods sold per ton in the phosphate businesses, hurting margins. It expects further pressure on phosphate margins in the second quarter, resulting from higher sulfur and ammonia costs.
Price Performance and Valuation of CF & NTR
The CF stock is up 33.1% year to date, while NTR has gained 1.9% compared with the Zacks Fertilizers industry’s rise of 8%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
CF is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 7.26. This represents a roughly 34.8% discount when stacked up with the industry average of 11.14X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
NTR is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 11.17, above CF and the industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
How the Zacks Consensus Estimate Compares for CF & NTR
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CF’s 2026 sales implies a year-over-year rise of 22.8%. The same for EPS suggests a 83.1% year-over-year increase. The EPS estimates for 2026 have been trending higher over the past 60 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The consensus estimate for NTR’s 2026 sales and EPS implies a year-over-year rise of 8% and 31.4%, respectively. The EPS estimates for 2026 have been trending northward over the past 60 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
CF or NTR: Which Stock Holds the Edge?
Both CF and Nutrien are benefiting from strong global demand, thanks to the favorable agricultural conditions and supportive farm economics. Higher fertilizer prices are also expected to aid their performance. Both remain committed to boosting shareholder returns. CF appears to have an edge over NTR due to its more attractive valuation and higher dividend growth rate. In addition, CF’s higher earnings growth projections suggest that it may offer better investment prospects in the current market environment.
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CF vs. NTR: Which Fertilizer Giant Is the Better Pick Now?
Key Takeaways
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF - Free Report) and Nutrien Ltd. (NTR - Free Report) are two of the biggest players in the fertilizer space. The underlying strength of the agricultural market and attractive farm economics are spurring demand for fertilizers globally. Farmer economics remain favorable in most global growing regions due to strong crop demand and affordable inputs.
Supportive farmer economics, improved affordability and low inventory levels are driving potash demand globally. The phosphate market is also benefiting from low producer and channel inventories. Demand for nitrogen fertilizer remains strong in major markets such as North America, India and Brazil. Strong demand and supply tightness have also led to an uptick in fertilizer prices.
Let’s dive deep and closely compare the fundamentals of these two major fertilizer producers to determine which one is a better investment option in the current environment.
The Case for CF Industries
CF Industries is capitalizing on the growing global demand for nitrogen fertilizers, driven by strong agricultural activity. Global nitrogen requirement is expected to remain strong in the near future due to recovering industrial demand and farmer economics.
High levels of corn-planted acres in the United States should drive demand for nitrogen. Demand in North America is expected to be fueled by favorable farm economics. In Brazil, demand for urea is likely to remain healthy in 2026, driven by higher corn plantings. In India, low inventory levels, reduced domestic production and undelivered volumes due to the Iran war are likely to lead to a greater requirement. The company expects India’s urea imports to rise year over year in 2026, potentially reaching 10-12 million metric tons.
CF, on its first-quarter call, said that the global nitrogen market will remain tight in 2026 due to strong demand, geopolitical disruptions and constrained natural gas availability. The Middle East conflict has further tightened the global nitrogen supply-demand balance.
Higher nitrogen prices have also contributed to a boost in CF Industries’ revenues. In the first quarter, net sales rose roughly 19% year over year on pricing strength. The average selling prices for the company’s core products increased from the prior year, driven by supply disruptions and strong global nitrogen demand. Looking ahead, CF should continue to benefit from favorable pricing trends.
CF Industries continues to focus on enhancing shareholder value by utilizing its strong cash flow, thanks to strong operational performance, strategic execution and supportive nitrogen industry fundamentals. For full-year 2025, net cash from operating activities was $2.75 billion, while free cash flow was $1.79 billion, up roughly 21% and 24% year over year, respectively. The company’s cash and cash equivalents were roughly $2 billion at the end of the first quarter. Net cash provided by operating activities was $496 million for the quarter.
The company is efficiently converting adjusted EBITDA to free cash flow. Its full-year 2025 free cash flow to adjusted EBITDA conversion rate was 62%, outpacing sector averages. The same for the first quarter was 51%.
CF returned $1.7 billion to its shareholders in 2025. It repurchased 16.6 million shares for $1.34 billion during 2025. Since the commencement of its current $2 billion buyback program in October 2025, CF Industries has bought back 3.6 million shares for around $293 million. CF offers a dividend yield of roughly 1.9% at the current stock price. It has a payout ratio of 19%. CF has a five-year annualized dividend growth rate of 12.9%.
The Case for Nutrien
Nutrien is well-placed to benefit from higher demand for fertilizers, backed by the strength in global agriculture markets. It is seeing healthy fertilizer demand in its major markets. Tight inventories are expected to support crop commodity prices.
NTR saw record potash sales volumes in the first quarter of 2026, driven by low inventory levels and favorable potash affordability, especially in key offshore markets. The company maintained its global potash shipment forecast of 74-77 million tons for 2026 and sees relatively tight potash fundamentals through the year. It is also increasing production from its low-cost North American operations to meet rising demand.
Nutrien should also gain from acquisitions and increased adoption of its digital platform. It continues to expand its footprint in Brazil through acquisitions. It is expected to continue pursuing targeted opportunities in its core markets. The company expects to utilize part of its free cash flow for incremental growth investments, including tuck-in acquisitions in the retail business.
Cost and operational efficiency initiatives are also expected to aid the company’s performance. NTR remains focused on lowering the cost of production in the potash business. It has announced several strategic actions to reduce its controllable costs and boost free cash flow. It surpassed the $200 million annual cost savings target for 2025, achieving it a year earlier than its initial target. It expects sustained cost-reduction efforts across all geographies to aid margin improvement in 2026.
NTR has a strong balance sheet, enabling it to finance its strategic growth investment, pay down debt and drive shareholder value. It returned $409 million to its shareholders in the first quarter through dividends and share repurchases. Nutrien offers a dividend yield of roughly 3.4% at the current stock price. It has a payout ratio of 48% and a five-year annualized dividend growth rate of 4.1%.
NTR, however, remains exposed to a volatile input cost environment amid supply tightness. Nutrien uses sulfur, ammonia and natural gas as key inputs. Supply disruptions from Russia amid the war with Ukraine, exacerbated by the Middle East conflict, contributed to the rise in input prices. Plant shutdowns and maintenance also resulted in a tight supply of these inputs, which, coupled with strong demand, pushed up their prices. Tight global sulfur supply, higher benchmark sulfur prices and ongoing supply-chain constraints continued to increase phosphate production costs.
The company saw higher sulfur input costs in the first quarter, leading to a higher cost of goods sold per ton in the phosphate businesses, hurting margins. It expects further pressure on phosphate margins in the second quarter, resulting from higher sulfur and ammonia costs.
Price Performance and Valuation of CF & NTR
The CF stock is up 33.1% year to date, while NTR has gained 1.9% compared with the Zacks Fertilizers industry’s rise of 8%.
CF is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 7.26. This represents a roughly 34.8% discount when stacked up with the industry average of 11.14X.
NTR is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 11.17, above CF and the industry.
How the Zacks Consensus Estimate Compares for CF & NTR
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CF’s 2026 sales implies a year-over-year rise of 22.8%. The same for EPS suggests a 83.1% year-over-year increase. The EPS estimates for 2026 have been trending higher over the past 60 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The consensus estimate for NTR’s 2026 sales and EPS implies a year-over-year rise of 8% and 31.4%, respectively. The EPS estimates for 2026 have been trending northward over the past 60 days.
CF or NTR: Which Stock Holds the Edge?
Both CF and Nutrien are benefiting from strong global demand, thanks to the favorable agricultural conditions and supportive farm economics. Higher fertilizer prices are also expected to aid their performance. Both remain committed to boosting shareholder returns. CF appears to have an edge over NTR due to its more attractive valuation and higher dividend growth rate. In addition, CF’s higher earnings growth projections suggest that it may offer better investment prospects in the current market environment.
CF currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), while NTR has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.