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A U.S. & Iran MOU Tries to Work: Global Week Ahead
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Key Takeaways
As of Monday Morning, the MOU Between the U.S. & Iran Holds
May PCE Report Comes Out This Thursday Morning
Key Inflation & Labor Data from Australia This Week
What happens in this Global Week Ahead?
A U.S. Iran deal is in place — for now.
But the next few weeks will test whether a more permanent agreement can be reached. Elsewhere:
Key U.S. and Australian macro-economic data are due
Colombians head to the polls, and
London U.K. hosts a major climate gathering
Next are Reuters’ Five World Market Themes, Re-ordered for Equity Traders—
(1) The Time Has Come to Implement the MOU Between the U.S. and Iran
U.S. President Donald Trump and Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian have signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to end their war, with Trump signing at France's Palace of Versailles.
Tankers broadcasting their positions sailed through the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, after weeks of trying to conceal their locations, sending oil below $80.
Global stocks and bonds have rallied, but the key question now is whether a deal can hold and the waterway stay open.
Lebanon remains a potential flashpoint, with Israeli airstrikes continuing. Doubts persist over a final U.S.-Iran accord, and planned talks in Geneva on Friday were called off.
Markets will be driven by headlines signaling progress or setbacks.
Investors will also get a snapshot of pre-deal business conditions when June flash activity data is released on Tuesday.
(2) Key U.S. Inflation Data: The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Index
Geopolitics isn’t the only focus.
Investors will get a key U.S. inflation update on the heels of a Federal Reserve meeting that prompted a hawkish market reaction.
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, due on June 25th, follows Fed projections that core PCE will end the year at 3.3%, well above the 2% target.
Rate hike bets rose after the meeting, though some investors say easing oil prices reduce the need for tighter policy.
Quarterly results from Micron Technology (MU - Free Report) , on June 24th bring fresh attention to the scorching semiconductor trade.
Earnings on June 23rd from global delivery company FedEx (FDX - Free Report) , a bellwether for economic activity, will also be in focus.
(3) Australia Releases Key Inflation and Labor Macro Data
Australia releases key inflation and labor data that could shape the policy outlook.
After three hikes this year, the Reserve Bank of Australia held its cash rate at 4.35% on Tuesday, the highest in developed markets, while flagging that another increase may be needed to tame price pressures.
Figures in late May pointed to slowing inflation. The next print for the consumer price index will be released on Wednesday.
Labor figures are due the following day. The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to a 4-1/2-year high of 4.5% in May, part of a raft of softer economic data that fed into the RBA's decision.
Interest rate swaps show a one-in-four chance of a rate increase in August, and around a two-in-three chance of a move by year-end.
(4) On Sunday, Colombians Elect De La Espriella
Colombians voted Sunday in a presidential runoff offering sharply different economic paths from right-wing lawyer Abelardo De La Espriella and leftist senator Ivan Cepeda.
After a narrow victory, De La Espriella inherits weak public finances, soft private investment and a divided Congress. Markets prefer the conservative, whose platform includes a smaller state, lower corporate taxes and a restart of oil exploration. His victory will likely support Colombian assets and business confidence, and much of it is already priced into markets.
Risks remain: fiscal tightening may fall short.
Cepeda had pledged to extend President Gustavo Petro's social and economic agenda, raising taxes on the wealthy and large companies, and limiting new oil and coal exploration, with Ecopetrol (EC - Free Report) stock, in the crosshairs.
Economists had expected a Cepeda win would have weighed on markets and investor confidence, with fiscal constraints limiting spending plans.
(5) London Hosts Largest-ever Climate Week
London hosts its largest-ever climate week, with more than 75,000 participants across over 1,000 events.
Policymakers, financiers and corporate leaders will focus on mobilising private capital for the low-carbon transition, and the role of governments and development banks.
The debate comes as many developed economies cut aid while boosting defence spending.
Energy security remains in focus amid the Iran conflict and rising power demand from AI data centres — a backdrop likely to energise activists, particularly during a forecast heatwave.
Attendees will also have one eye on the COP31 climate talks in Turkey in November.
Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks
Next are three Zacks #1 (STRONG BUY) large-cap stocks, benefitting from fresh covering analyst earnings upgrades.
(1) Micron (MU - Free Report) : This is a $1,134 a share stock, with a market cap of $1.29T.
It is found in the Zacks Computer-Integrated Systems industry. The stock holds a Zacks Value score of F, a Zacks Growth score of A, and a Zacks Momentum score of C.
F12M P/E: 18.7.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Through global brands, namely Micron, Crucial and Ballistix, Micron manufactures and markets high-performance memory and storage technologies including Dynamic Random Access Memory, NAND flash memory, NOR Flash, 3D XPoint memory and other technologies.
Its solutions are used in leading-edge computing, consumer, networking and mobile products.
(2) Caterpillar (CAT - Free Report) : This is a $985 a share stock, with a market cap of $454B.
It is found in the Zacks Manufacturing-Construction & Mining industry. The stock holds a Zacks Value score of F, a Zacks Growth score of D, and a Zacks Momentum score of C.
F12M P/E: 40.0.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Caterpillar is the world's leading manufacturer of construction and mining equipment, off-highway diesel and natural gas engines, industrial gas turbines and diesel-electric locomotives.
For nearly 100 years, they've been helping customers build a better, more sustainable world and are committed and contributing to a reduced-carbon future.
Their innovative products and services, backed by their global dealer network, provide exceptional value that helps customers succeed.
Caterpillar does business on every continent, principally operating through three primary segments: Construction Industries, Resource Industries and Energy & Transportation.
They provide financing and related services through their Financial Products segment.
(3) Sandisk (SNDK - Free Report) : This is a $2,184 a share stock, with a market cap of $323B.
It is found in the Zacks Computer-Storage industry. The stock holds a Zacks Value score of F, a Zacks Growth score of A, and a Zacks Momentum score of D.
F12M P/E: 33.3.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Sandisk is a flash and advanced memory technology innovator.
Sandisk is based in Milpitas, California, USA.
Key Global Macro
Thursday’s core and broad PCE inflation rate is the key print.
This is what the FOMC inflation hawks will care about.
On Monday, the ECB’s LaGarde gave a speech regarding current inflation levels in the Eurozone. She said that while they warrant meadured policy adjustments, they do not justify an aggressive response at this time.
The U.S. Fed Board of Governors Waller also gave a speech in Washington, D.C. this morning, in which he discussed whether stablecoins are expected to reinforce the U.S. dollar’s global reach. Perhaps instead they would introduce new tensions to the global finance market.
On Tuesday, the HCOB manufacturing PMI for June come out. 48.5 was the prior reading.
On Wednesday, the Australian household unemployment rate comes out for May. I see 4.5% is the prior April 2026 reading.
On Thursday, the U.S. core and broad Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) rate comes out for May.
The prior core PCE rate was +3.3% y/y. In m/m terms, +0.3% is what to expect for May. The prior m/m reading was a lower +0.2%. That is backward-looking macro data now.
On Friday, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for June comes out. I see 48.9 was the May print. Consensus looks for another very low 49.3 print for June.
Conclusion
On June 17th, Zacks Research Director Sheraz Mian shared a fresh earnings update.
His five key points:
(1) The overall S&P500 index earnings picture remains strong and broad-based.
We saw that in the last earnings season, when companies not only comfortably beat consensus estimates but also provided reassuring reads on the economy despite elevated energy costs and other risks.
We also saw positive momentum on the revisions front, with estimates for the current and upcoming quarters rising.
(2) Zacks expects total Q2 earnings for the S&P500 index to be up +22.3% from the same period last year, on +11.0% higher revenues.
11 of the 16 Zacks sectors expect to enjoy positive earnings growth.
(3) Excluding the significant upward revisions to the Energy sector estimates?
Zacks expects aggregate Q2 earnings estimates for the remainder of the S&P500 index would still be in positive territory since the start of April.
(4) Looking at the calendar year picture?
Zacks expects total S&P500 earnings to grow by +21.1% in 2026.
That growth pace drops to +12.6% when the Tech sector’s contribution is excluded.
(5) Nvidia (NVDA - Free Report) and Micron are material contributors to the Tech sector’s growth profile in Q2-26 and the coming quarters.
Excluding the contribution from these two semiconductor players?
Q2 EPS growth for the rest of the Zacks Tech sector drops to +25% (from +44.8%).
Enjoy the trading week.
John Blank, PhD. Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and Economist
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Bigstock
A U.S. & Iran MOU Tries to Work: Global Week Ahead
Key Takeaways
What happens in this Global Week Ahead?
A U.S. Iran deal is in place — for now.
But the next few weeks will test whether a more permanent agreement can be reached. Elsewhere:
Next are Reuters’ Five World Market Themes, Re-ordered for Equity Traders—
(1) The Time Has Come to Implement the MOU Between the U.S. and Iran
U.S. President Donald Trump and Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian have signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to end their war, with Trump signing at France's Palace of Versailles.
Tankers broadcasting their positions sailed through the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, after weeks of trying to conceal their locations, sending oil below $80.
Global stocks and bonds have rallied, but the key question now is whether a deal can hold and the waterway stay open.
Lebanon remains a potential flashpoint, with Israeli airstrikes continuing. Doubts persist over a final U.S.-Iran accord, and planned talks in Geneva on Friday were called off.
Markets will be driven by headlines signaling progress or setbacks.
Investors will also get a snapshot of pre-deal business conditions when June flash activity data is released on Tuesday.
(2) Key U.S. Inflation Data: The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Index
Geopolitics isn’t the only focus.
Investors will get a key U.S. inflation update on the heels of a Federal Reserve meeting that prompted a hawkish market reaction.
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, due on June 25th, follows Fed projections that core PCE will end the year at 3.3%, well above the 2% target.
Rate hike bets rose after the meeting, though some investors say easing oil prices reduce the need for tighter policy.
Quarterly results from Micron Technology (MU - Free Report) , on June 24th bring fresh attention to the scorching semiconductor trade.
Earnings on June 23rd from global delivery company FedEx (FDX - Free Report) , a bellwether for economic activity, will also be in focus.
(3) Australia Releases Key Inflation and Labor Macro Data
Australia releases key inflation and labor data that could shape the policy outlook.
After three hikes this year, the Reserve Bank of Australia held its cash rate at 4.35% on Tuesday, the highest in developed markets, while flagging that another increase may be needed to tame price pressures.
Figures in late May pointed to slowing inflation. The next print for the consumer price index will be released on Wednesday.
Labor figures are due the following day. The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to a 4-1/2-year high of 4.5% in May, part of a raft of softer economic data that fed into the RBA's decision.
Interest rate swaps show a one-in-four chance of a rate increase in August, and around a two-in-three chance of a move by year-end.
(4) On Sunday, Colombians Elect De La Espriella
Colombians voted Sunday in a presidential runoff offering sharply different economic paths from right-wing lawyer Abelardo De La Espriella and leftist senator Ivan Cepeda.
After a narrow victory, De La Espriella inherits weak public finances, soft private investment and a divided Congress. Markets prefer the conservative, whose platform includes a smaller state, lower corporate taxes and a restart of oil exploration. His victory will likely support Colombian assets and business confidence, and much of it is already priced into markets.
Risks remain: fiscal tightening may fall short.
Cepeda had pledged to extend President Gustavo Petro's social and economic agenda, raising taxes on the wealthy and large companies, and limiting new oil and coal exploration, with Ecopetrol (EC - Free Report) stock, in the crosshairs.
Economists had expected a Cepeda win would have weighed on markets and investor confidence, with fiscal constraints limiting spending plans.
(5) London Hosts Largest-ever Climate Week
London hosts its largest-ever climate week, with more than 75,000 participants across over 1,000 events.
Policymakers, financiers and corporate leaders will focus on mobilising private capital for the low-carbon transition, and the role of governments and development banks.
The debate comes as many developed economies cut aid while boosting defence spending.
Energy security remains in focus amid the Iran conflict and rising power demand from AI data centres — a backdrop likely to energise activists, particularly during a forecast heatwave.
Attendees will also have one eye on the COP31 climate talks in Turkey in November.
Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks
Next are three Zacks #1 (STRONG BUY) large-cap stocks, benefitting from fresh covering analyst earnings upgrades.
(1) Micron (MU - Free Report) : This is a $1,134 a share stock, with a market cap of $1.29T.
It is found in the Zacks Computer-Integrated Systems industry. The stock holds a Zacks Value score of F, a Zacks Growth score of A, and a Zacks Momentum score of C.
F12M P/E: 18.7.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Through global brands, namely Micron, Crucial and Ballistix, Micron manufactures and markets high-performance memory and storage technologies including Dynamic Random Access Memory, NAND flash memory, NOR Flash, 3D XPoint memory and other technologies.
Its solutions are used in leading-edge computing, consumer, networking and mobile products.
(2) Caterpillar (CAT - Free Report) : This is a $985 a share stock, with a market cap of $454B.
It is found in the Zacks Manufacturing-Construction & Mining industry. The stock holds a Zacks Value score of F, a Zacks Growth score of D, and a Zacks Momentum score of C.
F12M P/E: 40.0.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Caterpillar is the world's leading manufacturer of construction and mining equipment, off-highway diesel and natural gas engines, industrial gas turbines and diesel-electric locomotives.
For nearly 100 years, they've been helping customers build a better, more sustainable world and are committed and contributing to a reduced-carbon future.
Their innovative products and services, backed by their global dealer network, provide exceptional value that helps customers succeed.
Caterpillar does business on every continent, principally operating through three primary segments: Construction Industries, Resource Industries and Energy & Transportation.
They provide financing and related services through their Financial Products segment.
(3) Sandisk (SNDK - Free Report) : This is a $2,184 a share stock, with a market cap of $323B.
It is found in the Zacks Computer-Storage industry. The stock holds a Zacks Value score of F, a Zacks Growth score of A, and a Zacks Momentum score of D.
F12M P/E: 33.3.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Sandisk is a flash and advanced memory technology innovator.
Sandisk is based in Milpitas, California, USA.
Key Global Macro
Thursday’s core and broad PCE inflation rate is the key print.
This is what the FOMC inflation hawks will care about.
On Monday, the ECB’s LaGarde gave a speech regarding current inflation levels in the Eurozone. She said that while they warrant meadured policy adjustments, they do not justify an aggressive response at this time.
The U.S. Fed Board of Governors Waller also gave a speech in Washington, D.C. this morning, in which he discussed whether stablecoins are expected to reinforce the U.S. dollar’s global reach. Perhaps instead they would introduce new tensions to the global finance market.
On Tuesday, the HCOB manufacturing PMI for June come out. 48.5 was the prior reading.
On Wednesday, the Australian household unemployment rate comes out for May. I see 4.5% is the prior April 2026 reading.
On Thursday, the U.S. core and broad Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) rate comes out for May.
The prior core PCE rate was +3.3% y/y. In m/m terms, +0.3% is what to expect for May. The prior m/m reading was a lower +0.2%. That is backward-looking macro data now.
On Friday, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for June comes out. I see 48.9 was the May print. Consensus looks for another very low 49.3 print for June.
Conclusion
On June 17th, Zacks Research Director Sheraz Mian shared a fresh earnings update.
His five key points:
(1) The overall S&P500 index earnings picture remains strong and broad-based.
We saw that in the last earnings season, when companies not only comfortably beat consensus estimates but also provided reassuring reads on the economy despite elevated energy costs and other risks.
We also saw positive momentum on the revisions front, with estimates for the current and upcoming quarters rising.
(2) Zacks expects total Q2 earnings for the S&P500 index to be up +22.3% from the same period last year, on +11.0% higher revenues.
11 of the 16 Zacks sectors expect to enjoy positive earnings growth.
(3) Excluding the significant upward revisions to the Energy sector estimates?
Zacks expects aggregate Q2 earnings estimates for the remainder of the S&P500 index would still be in positive territory since the start of April.
(4) Looking at the calendar year picture?
Zacks expects total S&P500 earnings to grow by +21.1% in 2026.
That growth pace drops to +12.6% when the Tech sector’s contribution is excluded.
(5) Nvidia (NVDA - Free Report) and Micron are material contributors to the Tech sector’s growth profile in Q2-26 and the coming quarters.
Excluding the contribution from these two semiconductor players?
Q2 EPS growth for the rest of the Zacks Tech sector drops to +25% (from +44.8%).
Enjoy the trading week.
John Blank, PhD.
Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and Economist