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CAT's Record Backlog: A Sign of Sustained Demand Strength?
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Key Takeaways
CAT ended Q1 2026 with a record $63B backlog, up 22% sequentially and 79% year over year.
CAT raised its 2026 outlook to low double-digit sales growth, supported by strong demand trends.
CAT sees demand from infrastructure, mining, and data center-related energy projects supporting growth.
Caterpillar Inc.’s (CAT - Free Report) first-quarter 2026 results showcased strong revenue and earnings growth, but one metric stood out as a particularly important signal for investors: the order backlog. Unlike quarterly sales figures, backlog provides insight into future demand and revenue visibility, offering a clearer view of business momentum over the coming years.
Caterpillar ended the first quarter of 2026 with a record backlog of $63 billion. It was approximately $11.5 billion, or 22% higher sequentially, and $35 billion, or 79% higher than last year. Backlog increased across all three primary operating segments, reflecting broad-based demand strength throughout Caterpillar’s portfolio. About $24.8 billion of this backlog is not expected to be fulfilled within the next 12 months, highlighting the long-duration nature of many customer projects and the company’s growing revenue visibility.
The robust backlog also supports management’s improved outlook for the year. Caterpillar now expects low double-digit sales and revenue growth for 2026, above its earlier view for growth near the upper end of its long-term target range of 5-7%.
In Construction Industries, demand in North America continues to benefit from elevated infrastructure spending supported by the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA). Ongoing investments in critical infrastructure projects and data center construction are also contributing to healthy activity levels. Within Resource Industries, favorable commodity prices and replacement demand for aging mining fleet are expected to support equipment orders.
In the Power & Energy segment, growth will be driven by sales of both reciprocating engines and turbines and turbine-related services, driven by increasing energy demand to support data center build-out related to cloud computing and generative Artificial Intelligence (AI). CAT is seeing demand for prime power solutions trend higher as data center customers look for alternative power solutions to keep pace with their growth. Although quarterly revenues may vary with delivery schedules, Caterpillar’s record backlog points to sustained customer demand and provides a strong foundation for future earnings and cash-flow generation.
Industry peers are also reporting improving demand trends. Terex Corporation (TEX - Free Report) ended the first quarter with a backlog of $7.1 billion and a book-to-bill at 109%. Backlog increased 0.4% year over year, as strong booking trends in Materials Processing, Aerials, and Terex Utilities were offset by a decline at Environmental Solution. Terex’s recently completed merger with REV Group added the Specialty Vehicles segment, which contributed $4.48 billion to total backlog. Supported by its healthy order book and favorable end-market conditions, Terex reaffirmed its 2026 net sales outlook of $7.5-$8.1 billion.
Astec Industries (ASTE - Free Report) ended the first quarter with a backlog of $549.2 million, reflecting a 36.4% increase year over year, pointing to improving demand visibility across the portfolio. Astec’s Materials Solutions backlog rose 87.5% to $236.6 million, while Infrastructure Solutions segment’s backlog increased 13.1% to $312.6 million.
Although considerably smaller than Caterpillar, both Terex and Astec reported expanding backlogs. This suggests customers in the industry continue to commit capital to construction and infrastructure projects despite economic uncertainty.
CAT’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates
CAT shares have gained 75.6% over the past six months compared with the industry’s 56.2% growth.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Caterpillar is currently trading at a forward 12-month price/earnings (P/E) ratio of 37.20X compared with the industry average of 33.71X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CAT’s 2026 earnings indicates year-over-year growth of 29.3%. The consensus mark for revenues implies an increase of 13.2% for the year. The earnings estimate for 2027 indicates 24.3% growth, with revenues rising 10.3%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Earnings estimates for Caterpillar for both 2026 and 2027 have moved up over the past 60 days, as shown in the chart below.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Bigstock
CAT's Record Backlog: A Sign of Sustained Demand Strength?
Key Takeaways
Caterpillar Inc.’s (CAT - Free Report) first-quarter 2026 results showcased strong revenue and earnings growth, but one metric stood out as a particularly important signal for investors: the order backlog. Unlike quarterly sales figures, backlog provides insight into future demand and revenue visibility, offering a clearer view of business momentum over the coming years.
Caterpillar ended the first quarter of 2026 with a record backlog of $63 billion. It was approximately $11.5 billion, or 22% higher sequentially, and $35 billion, or 79% higher than last year. Backlog increased across all three primary operating segments, reflecting broad-based demand strength throughout Caterpillar’s portfolio. About $24.8 billion of this backlog is not expected to be fulfilled within the next 12 months, highlighting the long-duration nature of many customer projects and the company’s growing revenue visibility.
The robust backlog also supports management’s improved outlook for the year. Caterpillar now expects low double-digit sales and revenue growth for 2026, above its earlier view for growth near the upper end of its long-term target range of 5-7%.
In Construction Industries, demand in North America continues to benefit from elevated infrastructure spending supported by the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA). Ongoing investments in critical infrastructure projects and data center construction are also contributing to healthy activity levels. Within Resource Industries, favorable commodity prices and replacement demand for aging mining fleet are expected to support equipment orders.
In the Power & Energy segment, growth will be driven by sales of both reciprocating engines and turbines and turbine-related services, driven by increasing energy demand to support data center build-out related to cloud computing and generative Artificial Intelligence (AI). CAT is seeing demand for prime power solutions trend higher as data center customers look for alternative power solutions to keep pace with their growth.
Although quarterly revenues may vary with delivery schedules, Caterpillar’s record backlog points to sustained customer demand and provides a strong foundation for future earnings and cash-flow generation.
Industry peers are also reporting improving demand trends. Terex Corporation (TEX - Free Report) ended the first quarter with a backlog of $7.1 billion and a book-to-bill at 109%. Backlog increased 0.4% year over year, as strong booking trends in Materials Processing, Aerials, and Terex Utilities were offset by a decline at Environmental Solution. Terex’s recently completed merger with REV Group added the Specialty Vehicles segment, which contributed $4.48 billion to total backlog. Supported by its healthy order book and favorable end-market conditions, Terex reaffirmed its 2026 net sales outlook of $7.5-$8.1 billion.
Astec Industries (ASTE - Free Report) ended the first quarter with a backlog of $549.2 million, reflecting a 36.4% increase year over year, pointing to improving demand visibility across the portfolio. Astec’s Materials Solutions backlog rose 87.5% to $236.6 million, while Infrastructure Solutions segment’s backlog increased 13.1% to $312.6 million.
Although considerably smaller than Caterpillar, both Terex and Astec reported expanding backlogs. This suggests customers in the industry continue to commit capital to construction and infrastructure projects despite economic uncertainty.
CAT’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates
CAT shares have gained 75.6% over the past six months compared with the industry’s 56.2% growth.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Caterpillar is currently trading at a forward 12-month price/earnings (P/E) ratio of 37.20X compared with the industry average of 33.71X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CAT’s 2026 earnings indicates year-over-year growth of 29.3%. The consensus mark for revenues implies an increase of 13.2% for the year. The earnings estimate for 2027 indicates 24.3% growth, with revenues rising 10.3%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Earnings estimates for Caterpillar for both 2026 and 2027 have moved up over the past 60 days, as shown in the chart below.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Caterpillar stock currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.