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The Dow Is Up After Closing Above 53K 1st Time Monday
Trade Balance Sank to -$77.6B, but Better than Expected
Later This Week, Q2 Earnings Hit from PEP, DAL
Tuesday, July 7th, 2026
The rotation trade continues to benefit the Dow this morning, as gains in Tech on AI investment and buildout seep into other sectors in the economy. The blue-chip index is racing ahead another +170 points in pre-market trading so far today, adding to its all-time closing high Monday above 53K for the first time ever.
Look no further than Caterpillar (CAT - Free Report) , which supplies power sources and construction equipment for data center buildouts. It’s up modestly this morning but nearly +70% from the start of the year. Prior to today’s opening bell, soon-to-report big banks JPMorgan (JPM - Free Report) and Goldman Sachs (GS - Free Report) , +1.4% and +3.4%, respectively — both of which are Dow components. IBM (IBM - Free Report) , another Dow stock, is +3.45% currently, following a wave of positive news on its quantum supercomputing initiatives.
This is not to say other major indexes are performing poorly. The tech-heavy Nasdaq, while down -1.65% over the past five trading days, is up +100% over the past five years — including downward shifts from the war in Iran this year and tariff initiatives last year. This is nearly double the +54% the Dow has grown over the past five years — and even that averages +10% growth year over year.
Trade Balance Gets Steeper, but Less Than Expected
The U.S. Trade Balance for May fell into a deeper deficit month over month — -$77.6 billion from an improved revision to -$54.6 billion in April — but did not fall as much as the -$78.0 billion expected. We had spent the first third of 2026 in the -$50Bs range (not great, but a big improvement from the record low -$132 billion in March of 2025, directly ahead of the “Liberation Day” tariffs, which lasted one week). The October 2025 -$37.37 billion was the slimmest deficit since prior the Covid pandemic.
Today is also the day we have hearings on Section 301 tariffs, which concern forced labor and oversupply. We don’t have a clear sense on all the rules from this vista, but we do know 24 states are challenging these tariffs. The hearings are scheduled to continue through Friday. Then, in a couple weeks, Section 122 tariff surcharges are due to expire, after the Court of International Trade declared them unlawful back in May.
What to Expect from the Trading Week
While we’re light on economic prints compared to last week’s full slate of jobs numbers and next week’s inflation figures from CPI and PPI, we do see the unofficial start to Q2 earnings season later in the week. PepsiCo (PEP - Free Report) reports on Thursday morning and Delta Air Lines (DAL - Free Report) on Friday. These come ahead of next week’s unveiling of the big banks, including JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup (C - Free Report) and Wells Fargo (WFC - Free Report) . Also, Netflix (NFLX - Free Report) is scheduled to report a week from this Thursday.
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Image: Shutterstock
Dow Trades at All-Time Highs in Pre-Market
Key Takeaways
Tuesday, July 7th, 2026
The rotation trade continues to benefit the Dow this morning, as gains in Tech on AI investment and buildout seep into other sectors in the economy. The blue-chip index is racing ahead another +170 points in pre-market trading so far today, adding to its all-time closing high Monday above 53K for the first time ever.
Look no further than Caterpillar (CAT - Free Report) , which supplies power sources and construction equipment for data center buildouts. It’s up modestly this morning but nearly +70% from the start of the year. Prior to today’s opening bell, soon-to-report big banks JPMorgan (JPM - Free Report) and Goldman Sachs (GS - Free Report) , +1.4% and +3.4%, respectively — both of which are Dow components. IBM (IBM - Free Report) , another Dow stock, is +3.45% currently, following a wave of positive news on its quantum supercomputing initiatives.
This is not to say other major indexes are performing poorly. The tech-heavy Nasdaq, while down -1.65% over the past five trading days, is up +100% over the past five years — including downward shifts from the war in Iran this year and tariff initiatives last year. This is nearly double the +54% the Dow has grown over the past five years — and even that averages +10% growth year over year.
Trade Balance Gets Steeper, but Less Than Expected
The U.S. Trade Balance for May fell into a deeper deficit month over month — -$77.6 billion from an improved revision to -$54.6 billion in April — but did not fall as much as the -$78.0 billion expected. We had spent the first third of 2026 in the -$50Bs range (not great, but a big improvement from the record low -$132 billion in March of 2025, directly ahead of the “Liberation Day” tariffs, which lasted one week). The October 2025 -$37.37 billion was the slimmest deficit since prior the Covid pandemic.
Today is also the day we have hearings on Section 301 tariffs, which concern forced labor and oversupply. We don’t have a clear sense on all the rules from this vista, but we do know 24 states are challenging these tariffs. The hearings are scheduled to continue through Friday. Then, in a couple weeks, Section 122 tariff surcharges are due to expire, after the Court of International Trade declared them unlawful back in May.
What to Expect from the Trading Week
While we’re light on economic prints compared to last week’s full slate of jobs numbers and next week’s inflation figures from CPI and PPI, we do see the unofficial start to Q2 earnings season later in the week. PepsiCo (PEP - Free Report) reports on Thursday morning and Delta Air Lines (DAL - Free Report) on Friday. These come ahead of next week’s unveiling of the big banks, including JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup (C - Free Report) and Wells Fargo (WFC - Free Report) . Also, Netflix (NFLX - Free Report) is scheduled to report a week from this Thursday.
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