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Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) Up 1.6% Since Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ALNY - Free Report) . Shares have added about 1.6% in that time frame.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is ALNY due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Alnylam's Q4 Earnings and Revenues Top Estimates

Alnylam incurred a loss of $1.20 per share in the fourth quarter of 2017, narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $1.38. However, the figure was wider than the year-ago loss of $1.08.

Quarterly revenues improved 116.6% to $37.9 million, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $26.9 million. The top line in the quarter included $13.4 million earned under the company's collaboration agreement with Sanofi’s subsidiary, Genzyme as well as $20.1 million from the company’s alliance with The Medicines Company and $4.4 million from other sources.

Quarter in Detail

Adjusted research and development (R&D) expenses increased 8.3% from the year-ago period to $102.9 million. Adjusted general and administrative (G&A) expenses more than doubled to $55.2 million.

2018 Guidance

Alnylam provided guidance for 2018. The company expects to end the year with approximately $1 billion in cash, cash equivalents and fixed income marketable. Adjusted R&D expenses are expected in the range of $400 million to $440 million while adjusted selling, general and administrative expenses are expected in the range of $280 million to $320 million.

Pipeline Updates

Alnylam reported positive phase III study results from the APOLLO study evaluating patisiran, an investigational RNAi therapeutic for the treatment of patients with hereditary ATTR (hATTR) amyloidosis with polyneuropathy. Based on these results, the company submitted a new drug application (“NDA”) for patisiran and a Marketing Authorization Application (“MAA”) during the quarter. Notably, it expects to receive approval by mid-2018.

Moreover, the company and its partner, The Medicines Company, commenced three phase III studies – ORION -9, -10, and -11 – on inclisiran, an investigational RNAi therapeutic targeting PCSK9 in development for the treatment of hypercholesterolemia in patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) or heterozygous familial hypercholesterolemia (HeFH).

During the quarter, the FDA lifted the temporary hold from phase III studies, evaluating fitusiran in patients with hemophilia An and B with or without inhibitors.

Alnylam announced restructuring of its rare disease alliance with Sanofi, following which the company gained global rights to patisiran and ALN-TTRsc02, while Sanofi obtained global rights to fitusiran.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates. There have been two revisions lower for the current quarter. In the past month, the consensus estimate has shifted by 15.2% due to these changes.

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Price and Consensus

VGM Scores

At this time, ALNY has a poor Growth Score of F, however its Momentum is doing a lot better with an A. However, the stock was allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

The company's stock is suitable soley for momentum based on our styles scores.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. It's no surprise ALNY has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.




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