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Can Government Backing Drive MP Materials' Next Phase of Growth?
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Key Takeaways
MP Materials signed agreements to expand magnet production, refining and a second manufacturing facility.
MP secured DoW support, including magnet purchases, EBITDA backing and NdPr price floor protection.
MP has long-term supply deals with Apple and General Motors to support magnet production and sales.
MP Materials (MP - Free Report) is steadily building an integrated domestic rare earth supply chain spanning mining, refining, metal production and magnet manufacturing. This strategy aligns closely with U.S. national priorities to localize production of critical materials used in electric vehicles, defense systems, robotics and advanced manufacturing.
A major step in this strategy came in July 2025, when MP Materials entered into definitive agreements with the United States Department of War (DoW) to accelerate the build-out of an end-to-end U.S. rare earth magnet supply chain. Under the agreement, the company will expand its Independence Facility, construct its second magnet manufacturing facility in Northlake, TX (known as the 10X Facility) and boost its heavy rare earth elements (HREE) refining capability at Mountain Pass.
Per the DoW Offtake Agreement, the department has guaranteed that the 10X Facility will generate at least $140 million of EBITDA and has committed to purchase all magnets produced at the facility, unless those volumes are commercially syndicated with DoD approval. MP Materials also entered into a price floor protection agreement with the DoW for the neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) products produced at Mountain Pass that are sold or produced and stockpiled starting in the fourth quarter of 2025.
MP Materials estimates more than $1.25 billion for the 10X projects, supported by approximately $200 million of state and local incentive packages, as well as a 10-year magnet offtake agreement with the DoW. The 10X Facility is expected to begin commissioning in 2028. On completion, it will produce an estimated 7,000 metric tons (MTs) of magnets per year. Combined with Independence Facility’s 3,000 MTs per year of magnets, the company’s overall U.S. rare earth magnet annual production capacity will expand to an estimated 10,000 MTs.
The company is also securing long-term commercial customers alongside government support. MP Materials entered into a definitive, long-term supply agreement with Apple (AAPL - Free Report) in July 2025 for the development, manufacture and supply of magnets from its Independence Facility, as well as the development and installation of scaled recycling capabilities at Mountain Pass to produce the contained rare earths from post-industrial and post-consumer recycled rare earth feedstocks. In connection with the agreement and subject to achieving specified milestones, Apple agreed to make prepayments in the aggregate amount of $200 million for the purchase of magnets from the company.
In April 2022, MP Materials entered into a long-term agreement with General Motors (GM - Free Report) to supply magnets and precursor products manufactured at the Independence Facility. The Magnetics segment began generating revenues from the sales of magnetic precursor products to General Motors in the first quarter of 2025. As of March 31, 2026, the company had sold $87.9 million of magnetic precursor products to General Motors and expects to complete the remaining $62.1 million commitment within the next year. Following the fulfillment of this agreement, the company anticipates transitioning to sales of finished magnets to General Motors, which are expected to begin in 2026.
Energy Fuels (UUUU - Free Report) is pursuing a similar strategy to capitalize on the growing emphasis on domestic critical mineral supply chains. In addition to its uranium business, Energy Fuels has been expanding its rare earth operations. Energy Fuels recently secured a conditional commitment for up to $725 million in financing from the U.S. Office of Strategic Capital. The financing is intended to support the expansion of critical mineral processing capabilities at the company's White Mesa Mill in Utah and the development of a rare earth metals and alloys manufacturing facility in the United States. Energy Fuels has also announced the acquisition of VAC Group, which would significantly strengthen its downstream magnet manufacturing capabilities.
MP’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates
MP Materials’ shares have declined 24.6% over the past six months compared with the industry’s 0.5% dip.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
MP is trading at a forward 12-month price/sales multiple of 14.61X, a significant premium to the industry’s 1.59X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MP Materials’ 2026 earnings is pegged at 22 cents per share, indicating an improvement from the loss of 24 cents in 2025. The estimate for 2027 is $1.04 per share, indicating a 372% year-over-year improvement.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The revision activity for 2026 and 2027 estimates is shown in the chart below.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Bigstock
Can Government Backing Drive MP Materials' Next Phase of Growth?
Key Takeaways
MP Materials (MP - Free Report) is steadily building an integrated domestic rare earth supply chain spanning mining, refining, metal production and magnet manufacturing. This strategy aligns closely with U.S. national priorities to localize production of critical materials used in electric vehicles, defense systems, robotics and advanced manufacturing.
A major step in this strategy came in July 2025, when MP Materials entered into definitive agreements with the United States Department of War (DoW) to accelerate the build-out of an end-to-end U.S. rare earth magnet supply chain. Under the agreement, the company will expand its Independence Facility, construct its second magnet manufacturing facility in Northlake, TX (known as the 10X Facility) and boost its heavy rare earth elements (HREE) refining capability at Mountain Pass.
Per the DoW Offtake Agreement, the department has guaranteed that the 10X Facility will generate at least $140 million of EBITDA and has committed to purchase all magnets produced at the facility, unless those volumes are commercially syndicated with DoD approval. MP Materials also entered into a price floor protection agreement with the DoW for the neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) products produced at Mountain Pass that are sold or produced and stockpiled starting in the fourth quarter of 2025.
MP Materials estimates more than $1.25 billion for the 10X projects, supported by approximately $200 million of state and local incentive packages, as well as a 10-year magnet offtake agreement with the DoW. The 10X Facility is expected to begin commissioning in 2028. On completion, it will produce an estimated 7,000 metric tons (MTs) of magnets per year. Combined with Independence Facility’s 3,000 MTs per year of magnets, the company’s overall U.S. rare earth magnet annual production capacity will expand to an estimated 10,000 MTs.
The company is also securing long-term commercial customers alongside government support. MP Materials entered into a definitive, long-term supply agreement with Apple (AAPL - Free Report) in July 2025 for the development, manufacture and supply of magnets from its Independence Facility, as well as the development and installation of scaled recycling capabilities at Mountain Pass to produce the contained rare earths from post-industrial and post-consumer recycled rare earth feedstocks. In connection with the agreement and subject to achieving specified milestones, Apple agreed to make prepayments in the aggregate amount of $200 million for the purchase of magnets from the company.
In April 2022, MP Materials entered into a long-term agreement with General Motors (GM - Free Report) to supply magnets and precursor products manufactured at the Independence Facility. The Magnetics segment began generating revenues from the sales of magnetic precursor products to General Motors in the first quarter of 2025. As of March 31, 2026, the company had sold $87.9 million of magnetic precursor products to General Motors and expects to complete the remaining $62.1 million commitment within the next year. Following the fulfillment of this agreement, the company anticipates transitioning to sales of finished magnets to General Motors, which are expected to begin in 2026.
Energy Fuels (UUUU - Free Report) is pursuing a similar strategy to capitalize on the growing emphasis on domestic critical mineral supply chains. In addition to its uranium business, Energy Fuels has been expanding its rare earth operations. Energy Fuels recently secured a conditional commitment for up to $725 million in financing from the U.S. Office of Strategic Capital. The financing is intended to support the expansion of critical mineral processing capabilities at the company's White Mesa Mill in Utah and the development of a rare earth metals and alloys manufacturing facility in the United States. Energy Fuels has also announced the acquisition of VAC Group, which would significantly strengthen its downstream magnet manufacturing capabilities.
MP’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates
MP Materials’ shares have declined 24.6% over the past six months compared with the industry’s 0.5% dip.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
MP is trading at a forward 12-month price/sales multiple of 14.61X, a significant premium to the industry’s 1.59X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MP Materials’ 2026 earnings is pegged at 22 cents per share, indicating an improvement from the loss of 24 cents in 2025. The estimate for 2027 is $1.04 per share, indicating a 372% year-over-year improvement.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The revision activity for 2026 and 2027 estimates is shown in the chart below.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.