M&T Bank Corporation (MTB Quick QuoteMTB - Free Report) is slated to report second-quarter 2026 results on July 15, before the opening bell. The company is expected to have registered year-over-year increases in quarterly revenues and earnings.

In the last reported quarter, the company’s results were supported by higher net interest income (NII) and non-interest income, along with modest loan growth. However, a decline in deposits, higher expenses and increased provisions for credit losses acted as headwinds.

The company has an impressive earnings surprise history. Its earnings surpassed estimates in the trailing four quarters, with an average surprise of 6.7%.

M&T Bank Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

M&T Bank Corporation price-eps-surprise | M&T Bank Corporation Quote

Factors to Influence M&T Bank’s Q2 Results

Loans & NII: Per the Fed’s latest data, demand for commercial and industrial, real estate and consumer loans was decent in the second quarter of 2026. This is likely to have supported M&T Bank’s lending activity and growth in average interest-earning assets in the to-be-reported period.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for average interest-earning assets is pegged at $194.8 billion, indicating a year-over-year rise of 1.2%.

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged in the second quarter of 2026, while noting that economic activity continued to expand at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty and inflation remaining above its 2% target. Hence, a stable rate environment, along with decent loan demand, is expected to have supported M&T Bank’s NII growth.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NII (on a tax-equivalent basis) is pegged at $1.79 billion, indicating an increase of 1.8% from the year-ago reported number.

Fee Income: MTB’s average total deposits are expected to have remained relatively stable in the second quarter of 2026. This is expected to have provided some support to revenues from service charges on deposit accounts.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the metric is pegged at $142.3 million, indicating a 2.3% rise from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

In the second quarter of 2026, mortgage rates hovered in the mid-6% range, with affordability continuing to weigh on homebuying demand. While purchase activity remained subdued due to elevated borrowing costs and limited housing inventory, refinancing activity improved during the quarter. As a result, M&T Bank's mortgage banking revenues are likely to have received some support.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for mortgage banking revenues is pegged at $129.8 million, indicating a 2.2% rise from the year-ago quarter’s reported level.

The consensus estimate for brokerage services income of $36.1 million indicates a 3% increase from that reported in the second quarter of 2025.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for trust income of $190.3 million indicates a 4% rise from the year-ago quarter’s actual.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total non-interest income is pegged at $672.8 million, indicating a decline of 2.3% from the year-ago quarter's reported figure.

Expenses: Despite ongoing cost-control initiatives, the company’s expenses are expected to have remained elevated in the second quarter of 2026, reflecting continued investments in strengthening its franchise.

Asset quality: The operating environment continued to remain challenging in the second quarter of 2026, weighed down by persistent geopolitical uncertainty and elevated inflation. Additionally, the Fed’s June policy statement indicated the possibility of a rate hike, which could pressure borrowers’ repayment capacity. Against this backdrop, M&T Bank is expected to have maintained a cautious approach and built higher provisions for potential credit losses in the second quarter of 2026.

What Our Quantitative Model Predicts for MTB

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for M&T Bank this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is exactly the case here.

You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for M&T Bank is +0.13%.

Zacks Rank: M&T Bank currently carries a Zacks Rank of 2.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MTB’s second-quarter earnings has remained unchanged at $4.66 per share over the past seven days. The figure indicates an increase of nearly 8.9% from the year-ago quarter.

The consensus estimate for revenues is pegged at $2.48 billion, implying a rise of 3.4% from the year-ago reported level.

Other Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are a couple of other bank stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these, too, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time:

The Earnings ESP for JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM Quick QuoteJPM - Free Report) is +0.49% and carries a Zacks Rank #2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The company is slated to report second-quarter 2026 results on July 14, 2026. Over the past seven days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for JPM's quarterly earnings has been revised upward to $5.55 per share.

U.S. Bancorp (USB Quick QuoteUSB - Free Report) is also scheduled to announce second-quarter 2026 results on July 16, 2026. The company has an Earnings ESP of +0.34% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present.

Quarterly earnings estimates for USB have been revised upward to $1.28 per share over the past week.