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The company’s to-be-reported quarter’s performance is expected to have been driven by its solid credit card business and the positive effects of the Discover Financial acquisition (completed in May 2025). As such, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $15.7 billion, which indicates year-over-year growth of 25.7%.
In the past seven days, the consensus estimate for earnings for the to-be-reported quarter has been revised 4.3% higher to $5.08. Nonetheless, the estimate indicates a 7.3% fall from the prior-year quarter. This is likely to be due to higher provision charges and an increase in operating expenses.
Estimate Revision Trend
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
COF does not have an impressive earnings surprise history. The company’s earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in only two of the trailing four quarters and lagged in other two, the average beat being 18.58%.
Earnings Surprise History
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Major Factors at Play for Capital One’s Q2 Results
Net Interest Income (NII): The Federal Reserve has paused rate cuts and signaled a hike later in the year amid higher inflation and a volatile macro backdrop. This followed a 175-basis-point cut in the last two years.
The overall lending scenario was impressive in the second quarter. Per the Federal Reserve’s latest data, the demand for consumer loans was solid. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total average earning assets is pegged at $614.3 billion, implying a 17% rise from the prior-year quarter.
This, along with stable rates and decent economic growth, is expected to have helped Capital One’s NII growth. Also, the company’s continued efforts to strengthen its card operations are expected to have provided support. The consensus estimate for NII of $12.47 billion indicates 24.8% year-over-year growth.
Fee income: Supported by an overall rise in credit card usage and the Discover Financial buyout, Capital One’s interchange fees (constituting more than 60% of fee income) are likely to have increased in the quarter under review. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for interchange fees is $2.16 billion, suggesting a 46.3% year-over-year jump.
The consensus estimate for service charges and other customer-related fees of $853.7 million implies a 29.7% year-over-year rise. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for other non-interest income is pegged at $378.4 million, indicating a 4.8% rise.
Thus, the consensus estimate for total non-interest income of $3.21 billion indicates a jump of 28.4% from the prior-year quarter.
Expenses: Capital One has been witnessing a persistent rise in expenses over the past several quarters due to higher marketing costs and investment in technology upgrades. The Discover Financial and Brex acquisitions, along with inflation pressure, are expected to have resulted in an increase in operating expenses in the second quarter.
Asset Quality: Capital One is likely to have set aside a significant amount of money for potential delinquent loans, as the interest rates have been unchanged and there has been a steady rise in credit card loan demand.
Given the current macro backdrop and higher inflation, because of the Middle East conflict and the oil price shocks, borrowers are likely to have faced problems in keeping up with loan repayments. Hence, credit costs for COF are likely to have risen in the to-be-reported quarter.
Notable Development for Capital One in Q2
In April, Capital One completed the acquisition of Brex for approximately $2.56 billion in cash and issued nearly 10.7 million shares of its common stock. This will significantly strengthen the company’s strategic expansion into the business payments and AI-driven financial software space.
Brex is a leading AI-native financial platform that integrates corporate cards, expense management software and banking services into a single ecosystem. Its platform leverages AI to automate workflows, streamline expense reviews and enable secure, real-time payments for businesses.
By integrating Brex’s AI-powered capabilities, COF is expected to enhance innovation in corporate payments and spend management, enabling businesses to operate with greater speed, control and efficiency through automated workflows, real-time visibility and reduced manual processes.
What Our Quantitative Model Unveils for COF
According to our quantitative model, the chances of Capital One beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings this time are high. This is because it has the right combination of the two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for Capital One is +1.54%.
In the second quarter, COF shares gained 10%, underperforming the Zacks Consumer Loans industry. Its peers Ally Financial (ALLY - Free Report) and Navient Corporation (NAVI - Free Report) have rallied 17.2% and 4.1%, respectively.
2Q26 Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Ally Financial is scheduled to announce second-quarter 2026 numbers on July 21, whereas Navient is set to report on Aug. 8.
Over the past week, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ally Financial’s second-quarter 2026 earnings has been revised lower to $1.24. The consensus estimate for Navient has been unchanged at 18 cents over the past seven days. At present, both ALLY and NAVI carry a Zacks Rank #3.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Bigstock
Card Loans, Fee Income to Support COF Q2 Earnings, Provisions to Hurt
Key Takeaways
Capital One (COF - Free Report) is scheduled to announce second-quarter 2026 results on July 21, after market close.
The company’s to-be-reported quarter’s performance is expected to have been driven by its solid credit card business and the positive effects of the Discover Financial acquisition (completed in May 2025). As such, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $15.7 billion, which indicates year-over-year growth of 25.7%.
In the past seven days, the consensus estimate for earnings for the to-be-reported quarter has been revised 4.3% higher to $5.08. Nonetheless, the estimate indicates a 7.3% fall from the prior-year quarter. This is likely to be due to higher provision charges and an increase in operating expenses.
Estimate Revision Trend
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
COF does not have an impressive earnings surprise history. The company’s earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in only two of the trailing four quarters and lagged in other two, the average beat being 18.58%.
Earnings Surprise History
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Major Factors at Play for Capital One’s Q2 Results
Net Interest Income (NII): The Federal Reserve has paused rate cuts and signaled a hike later in the year amid higher inflation and a volatile macro backdrop. This followed a 175-basis-point cut in the last two years.
The overall lending scenario was impressive in the second quarter. Per the Federal Reserve’s latest data, the demand for consumer loans was solid. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total average earning assets is pegged at $614.3 billion, implying a 17% rise from the prior-year quarter.
This, along with stable rates and decent economic growth, is expected to have helped Capital One’s NII growth. Also, the company’s continued efforts to strengthen its card operations are expected to have provided support. The consensus estimate for NII of $12.47 billion indicates 24.8% year-over-year growth.
Fee income: Supported by an overall rise in credit card usage and the Discover Financial buyout, Capital One’s interchange fees (constituting more than 60% of fee income) are likely to have increased in the quarter under review. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for interchange fees is $2.16 billion, suggesting a 46.3% year-over-year jump.
The consensus estimate for service charges and other customer-related fees of $853.7 million implies a 29.7% year-over-year rise. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for other non-interest income is pegged at $378.4 million, indicating a 4.8% rise.
Thus, the consensus estimate for total non-interest income of $3.21 billion indicates a jump of 28.4% from the prior-year quarter.
Expenses: Capital One has been witnessing a persistent rise in expenses over the past several quarters due to higher marketing costs and investment in technology upgrades. The Discover Financial and Brex acquisitions, along with inflation pressure, are expected to have resulted in an increase in operating expenses in the second quarter.
Asset Quality: Capital One is likely to have set aside a significant amount of money for potential delinquent loans, as the interest rates have been unchanged and there has been a steady rise in credit card loan demand.
Given the current macro backdrop and higher inflation, because of the Middle East conflict and the oil price shocks, borrowers are likely to have faced problems in keeping up with loan repayments. Hence, credit costs for COF are likely to have risen in the to-be-reported quarter.
Notable Development for Capital One in Q2
In April, Capital One completed the acquisition of Brex for approximately $2.56 billion in cash and issued nearly 10.7 million shares of its common stock. This will significantly strengthen the company’s strategic expansion into the business payments and AI-driven financial software space.
Brex is a leading AI-native financial platform that integrates corporate cards, expense management software and banking services into a single ecosystem. Its platform leverages AI to automate workflows, streamline expense reviews and enable secure, real-time payments for businesses.
By integrating Brex’s AI-powered capabilities, COF is expected to enhance innovation in corporate payments and spend management, enabling businesses to operate with greater speed, control and efficiency through automated workflows, real-time visibility and reduced manual processes.
What Our Quantitative Model Unveils for COF
According to our quantitative model, the chances of Capital One beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings this time are high. This is because it has the right combination of the two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for Capital One is +1.54%.
Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Capital One’s Price Performance
In the second quarter, COF shares gained 10%, underperforming the Zacks Consumer Loans industry. Its peers Ally Financial (ALLY - Free Report) and Navient Corporation (NAVI - Free Report) have rallied 17.2% and 4.1%, respectively.
2Q26 Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Ally Financial is scheduled to announce second-quarter 2026 numbers on July 21, whereas Navient is set to report on Aug. 8.
Over the past week, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ally Financial’s second-quarter 2026 earnings has been revised lower to $1.24. The consensus estimate for Navient has been unchanged at 18 cents over the past seven days. At present, both ALLY and NAVI carry a Zacks Rank #3.