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Can Lumentum's AI Laser Chip Demand Accelerate Revenue Growth?
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Key Takeaways
Lumentum's 200G EML revenues more than doubled sequentially as total laser-chip shipments doubled YoY.
EML unit volumes are expected to grow over 50% by December 2026, supported by expanded InP fab capacity.
CPO laser chips could generate meaningful revenues by late 2026, backed by a major purchase order.
Lumentum Holdings (LITE - Free Report) is well positioned to accelerate revenue growth as surging AI infrastructure investments drive record demand for its laser chips, a critical building block of high-speed optical networking. In third-quarter fiscal 2026, the company delivered record EML (electro-absorption modulated laser) shipments, with 200G EML revenues more than doubling sequentially and total laser chip shipments doubling year over year. Management also expects EML unit volumes to grow more than 50% by the December 2026 quarter, underscoring strong customer demand.
The opportunity extends beyond shipment growth. Lumentum's laser chips are increasingly powering 800G and upcoming 1.6T optical transceivers, while internal deployment of its continuous-wave (CW) lasers enhances vertical integration and captures more value across the optical networking stack. Meanwhile, with the production capacity of its wafer fab in Japan fully allocated, the company has acquired a fifth Indium Phosphide (InP) fab to expand production capacity and meet the demand for future growth.
Lumentum's next growth wave could come from co-packaged optics (CPO), where ultra-high-power laser chips are on track for meaningful revenue generation by late 2026, supported by a multi-hundred-million-dollar purchase order and collaborations with multiple customers.
Strong forward guidance further supports the continued growth of laser chips. Lumentum expects fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 revenues in the range of $960 million to $1.01 billion, up sequentially, reflecting sustained demand. The company also projects non-GAAP operating margins of 35%-36%, suggesting that higher laser chip shipments and a richer product mix should continue driving both revenue growth and profitability.
How Lumentum Stacks Up to Competitors
Lumentum competes directly with Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI - Free Report) in AI optical networking as both target hyperscale AI deployments with high-speed transceivers and laser technologies. Applied Optoelectronics emphasizes vertically integrated laser manufacturing, rapid 800G/1.6T capacity expansion and CPO-ready external laser sources. Applied Optoelectronics expects AI demand to exceed production through 2027, while Lumentum counters with broader laser-chip, optical switching and scale-across photonics leadership.
On the other hand, Broadcom Inc. (AVGO - Free Report) competes with Lumentum across AI optical networking, photonics and co-packaged optics for hyperscale AI clusters. Broadcom combines Ethernet switching, DSPs, EML lasers and CPO leadership with deep hyperscaler partnerships and massive AI infrastructure investments. Broadcom benefits from unmatched networking scale, while Broadcom faces Lumentum's strengths in laser chips, optical components and scale-out/scale-across photonic systems.
Shares of Lumentum have surged 117.5% in the past six months, outperforming the broader Zacks Computer and Technology sector’s growth of 12.1%.
LITE’s 6-Month Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, LITE trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 38.62, above the industry’s average of 37.2. LITE carries a Value Score of D.
LITE’s Valuation
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Lumentum’s fiscal 2027 earnings is pegged at $18.07 per share, implying a year-over-year increase of 121.15%. The EPS estimates for fiscal 2027 have risen in the past 60 days.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Bigstock
Can Lumentum's AI Laser Chip Demand Accelerate Revenue Growth?
Key Takeaways
Lumentum Holdings (LITE - Free Report) is well positioned to accelerate revenue growth as surging AI infrastructure investments drive record demand for its laser chips, a critical building block of high-speed optical networking. In third-quarter fiscal 2026, the company delivered record EML (electro-absorption modulated laser) shipments, with 200G EML revenues more than doubling sequentially and total laser chip shipments doubling year over year. Management also expects EML unit volumes to grow more than 50% by the December 2026 quarter, underscoring strong customer demand.
The opportunity extends beyond shipment growth. Lumentum's laser chips are increasingly powering 800G and upcoming 1.6T optical transceivers, while internal deployment of its continuous-wave (CW) lasers enhances vertical integration and captures more value across the optical networking stack. Meanwhile, with the production capacity of its wafer fab in Japan fully allocated, the company has acquired a fifth Indium Phosphide (InP) fab to expand production capacity and meet the demand for future growth.
Lumentum's next growth wave could come from co-packaged optics (CPO), where ultra-high-power laser chips are on track for meaningful revenue generation by late 2026, supported by a multi-hundred-million-dollar purchase order and collaborations with multiple customers.
Strong forward guidance further supports the continued growth of laser chips. Lumentum expects fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 revenues in the range of $960 million to $1.01 billion, up sequentially, reflecting sustained demand. The company also projects non-GAAP operating margins of 35%-36%, suggesting that higher laser chip shipments and a richer product mix should continue driving both revenue growth and profitability.
How Lumentum Stacks Up to Competitors
Lumentum competes directly with Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI - Free Report) in AI optical networking as both target hyperscale AI deployments with high-speed transceivers and laser technologies. Applied Optoelectronics emphasizes vertically integrated laser manufacturing, rapid 800G/1.6T capacity expansion and CPO-ready external laser sources. Applied Optoelectronics expects AI demand to exceed production through 2027, while Lumentum counters with broader laser-chip, optical switching and scale-across photonics leadership.
On the other hand, Broadcom Inc. (AVGO - Free Report) competes with Lumentum across AI optical networking, photonics and co-packaged optics for hyperscale AI clusters. Broadcom combines Ethernet switching, DSPs, EML lasers and CPO leadership with deep hyperscaler partnerships and massive AI infrastructure investments. Broadcom benefits from unmatched networking scale, while Broadcom faces Lumentum's strengths in laser chips, optical components and scale-out/scale-across photonic systems.
LITE’s Share Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates
Shares of Lumentum have surged 117.5% in the past six months, outperforming the broader Zacks Computer and Technology sector’s growth of 12.1%.
LITE’s 6-Month Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, LITE trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 38.62, above the industry’s average of 37.2. LITE carries a Value Score of D.
LITE’s Valuation
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Lumentum’s fiscal 2027 earnings is pegged at $18.07 per share, implying a year-over-year increase of 121.15%. The EPS estimates for fiscal 2027 have risen in the past 60 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Lumentum stock carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.